Real Estate

Coronavirus impact on Real Estate

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  • Oct 20th, 2020 3:55 am
Newbie
Sep 14, 2020
51 posts
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Edmonton, AB
mazerbeaner wrote: It's because the west spent a generation monopolizing global resources through literal slavery and war. Now that the west can't do that other countries are catching up and the competition for resources has escalated. Quality of life on the west has been declining for decades and will continue for decades more. The past was not sustainable because it was only possible by suppressing the rest of the world and living like gluttons.
Life is fascinating. It seems to have movements or cycles as powers rise and fall. You can see it in the natural world and you can see it in human history. I think the West is currently falling. It's being torn apart by cancerous elements within, not defeated by an external enemy; it became too big and bloated and is falling apart on its own accord. This is a slow process that could possibly be stopped or reversed at some point. Otherwise, new powers will eventually emerge out of the ashes. They may be localized at first but they will likely end up monopolizing global resources once again, in a long enough time frame. They would of course use slavery and war to do that, unless new methods are invented. The next powers could already exist (eg. China, Russia, or elements of the West lurking in the shadows) or they could not yet be born. We can't predict the future, we're just along for the ride and to effect our small role in it!

Alternatively, the fall of the West could trigger the total destruction of mankind if things get very messy, in which case the cycle would continue with whatever organisms survive to continue to fight for resources in the post-human world. One thing we can say for certain is there's nothing "sustainable" about life; evolution is 3.5 billion years of ascension driven by constant change and that some humans wish to stop here and live happily ever after merely reveals something about their psychology.
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Jan 23, 2016
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Kitchener, ON
rodrickrod wrote: Life is fascinating. It seems to have movements or cycles as powers rise and fall. You can see it in the natural world and you can see it in human history. I think the West is currently falling. It's being torn apart by cancerous elements within, not defeated by an external enemy; it became too big and bloated and is falling apart on its own accord. This is a slow process that could possibly be stopped or reversed at some point. Otherwise, new powers will eventually emerge out of the ashes. They may be localized at first but they will likely end up monopolizing global resources once again, in a long enough time frame. They would of course use slavery and war to do that, unless new methods are invented. The next powers could already exist (eg. China, Russia, or elements of the West lurking in the shadows) or they could not yet be born. We can't predict the future, we're just along for the ride and to effect our small role in it!

Alternatively, the fall of the West could trigger the total destruction of mankind if things get very messy, in which case the cycle would continue with whatever organisms survive to continue to fight for resources in the post-human world. One thing we can say for certain is there's nothing "sustainable" about life; evolution is 3.5 billion years of ascension driven by constant change and that some humans wish to stop here and live happily ever after merely reveals something about their psychology.
The next superpowers are likely regional. Japan, France and Argentina. China is going to fail apart as they import most of their calories and greatly benefit from the current system.
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Sep 14, 2006
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Sparky9087 wrote: The science in masks is settled. Cloth masks increase infections vs no masks. There is a big difference between surgical masks and the one made from a used pair of jorts. If you go to visit a nursing home they will swap out your home made mask with a surgical mask. Why do you think that is? Cloth masks achieve nothing but let you signal your virtue from a distance. Cloth masks have a 97% penetration rate.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/

WRT to real estate, private debt to GDP is now 250%. Private debt pulls demand forward. It gives you real estate booms. When that trend reverses, as people deleverage, private debt contraction subtracts from demand. It creates a hyper deflationary spiral because when debt is created, money is created. When debt is repaid, money is destroyed. We are in the early innings of great depression 2.0 because the bad debt wasn't cleansed In 2008. The only cure is to cleanse the bad debt. We need to get down to sub 100% of GDP private debt. The credit theory of money system always ends the same way. Expansion till the debt can't be serviced and then contraction. Corona didn't cause this. Corona was just the catalyst to finally kill a broken system.
Thanks for linking the article. Admittedly I did not read the whole article as it’s long but let me know if I missed anything as I try to understand the study done.

They’re saying medical masks have a penetration rate of 44% vs 97% for cloth masks. The question is what makes up these cloth masks? Single layer? Double layer? Triple layer? Is there a difference with multiple layers?

The article is slightly misleading. It says cloth masks increase the rate of infections which I’m interpreting it as a comparison to medical masks (44% penetration vs 97%) but it doesn’t mean it increases the chance of infection between cloth masks vs no masks.

97% penetration rate vs no masks (assuming 100%?) so does that mean wearing a cloth mask is safer than no mask but not nearly as safe as a medical mask?

In regards to your example about hospitals enforcing people to wear a surgical mask, I work in the pharma and med device world and when I go into my office, we are forced to wear their masks even though it’s the same medical masks I’d be wearing going into the office (the blue and white ones). It’s just an added proactive and preventative measure.

The article also talks about people reusing the cloth ones and not cleaning it properly which increases the chance of infections in a high risk area. I totally agree with that. Honestly if there is a high risk area identified, if there is no reason to go, just stay away or stay home. That’s the best way to reduce the risks.

Did I interpret it correctly or is the article saying cloth masks is even more dangerous than not wearing a mask? Furthermore, FWIW, the article you linked is from 2015? Is it still applicable specifically for COVID-19?

Cheers.
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Jun 19, 2017
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JayLove06 wrote: Here’s the thing. Falling rents is based on WFH and a closed border. As much as people want to act like the maker will tank, it will not. The doom and gloom will eventually be over, border is open and colleges reopen. Businesses tell workers to get back into the office. We know this is going to happen. So I don’t expect prices to tank the way you guys do. Rates are rick bottom. If they stay that way there shouldn’t be a problem.

As hard as some people try (usually they same people) we will get back to normalcy. Just don’t complain when rents and prices go through the roof because investors took advantage of scaredy cars and low rates and invested. It will they be called lucky? Some people need to be smacked in the face before they realize an opportunity.

Oh also another impact in the market would be mass job loss to white collar jobs.
I don't disagree with you, we will return to normal, I don't think we will this year, and it's not looking good for most of next year either.

So as for investors taking advantage of low rates and scaredy cats, if I was looking to do that, I still mostly see cash flow negative, low return on capital opportunities out there...so I'd rather let others be the brave ones for now. This opportunities don't seem to exist yet.

That circles me back to the question of how long people hold onto their units hoping for a turnaround, I think there are a lot of speculators out there expecting capital appreciation, which may now seem further off in the future. Which leads me to think there is a good chance we see more supply and soft prices for several years.

Low rates and boc policy have definitely provided tailwinds to the market recently, but there are a tremendous amount of headwinds which we may need to account for looking forward into the new year. From everything that I have read, and in talking to friends, we may start seeing those white collar job losses which you mention, they may start to pile up soon. What stops this from happening at this point.?
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Jan 23, 2016
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Kitchener, ON
bobbings wrote: Thanks for linking the article. Admittedly I did not read the whole article as it’s long but let me know if I missed anything as I try to understand the study done.

They’re saying medical masks have a penetration rate of 44% vs 97% for cloth masks. The question is what makes up these cloth masks? Single layer? Double layer? Triple layer? Is there a difference with multiple layers?

The article is slightly misleading. It says cloth masks increase the rate of infections which I’m interpreting it as a comparison to medical masks (44% penetration vs 97%) but it doesn’t mean it increases the chance of infection between cloth masks vs no masks.

97% penetration rate vs no masks (assuming 100%?) so does that mean wearing a cloth mask is safer than no mask but not nearly as safe as a medical mask?

In regards to your example about hospitals enforcing people to wear a surgical mask, I work in the pharma and med device world and when I go into my office, we are forced to wear their masks even though it’s the same medical masks I’d be wearing going into the office (the blue and white ones). It’s just an added proactive and preventative measure.

The article also talks about people reusing the cloth ones and not cleaning it properly which increases the chance of infections in a high risk area. I totally agree with that. Honestly if there is a high risk area identified, if there is no reason to go, just stay away or stay home. That’s the best way to reduce the risks.

Did I interpret it correctly or is the article saying cloth masks is even more dangerous than not wearing a mask? Furthermore, FWIW, the article you linked is from 2015? Is it still applicable specifically for COVID-19?

Cheers.
Droplet viruses are droplet viruses. Can't imagine that's changed in 5 years, or ever. The reason cloth masks have higher infection rate is because they effectively offer no protection but require you to touch your face. That is the hand -> eye/nose/mouth transmission. I think we've all seen people constantly adjusting a poorly fitted mask. That is transmission that wouldn't exist sans mask.

There are tables demonstrating protection rate for various cloth masks. They vary from 0.1% to 20% max. Surgical masks offer 56%. This is the inverse of penetration rate.

At the end of the day, there is a clear and stark difference between surgical and cloth. Health care sector knows it as evidenced by them swapping out masks.
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What does everyone think the answer is to the cosmos?
"It is in times of great fear or greed that the most opportunity exists."
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Sparky9087 wrote: Droplet viruses are droplet viruses. Can't imagine that's changed in 5 years, or ever. The reason cloth masks have higher infection rate is because they effectively offer no protection but require you to touch your face. That is the hand -> eye/nose/mouth transmission. I think we've all seen people constantly adjusting a poorly fitted mask. That is transmission that wouldn't exist sans mask.

There are tables demonstrating protection rate for various cloth masks. They vary from 0.1% to 20% max. Surgical masks offer 56%. This is the inverse of penetration rate.

At the end of the day, there is a clear and stark difference between surgical and cloth. Health care sector knows it as evidenced by them swapping out masks.
I agree with everything you say except for the touching face part. Even wearing a surgical mask requires you to touch your face if it slides down or is uncomfortable. That part should be a wash when comparing cloth vs surgical. Even when people don't wear masks, you see them touching their noses and mouths all the time. How often do you see people rub their noses or use their fingers to wipe the edge of their mouths? This has more to do with hand hygiene than masks.

The other parts where they have actual % of penetration for various masks is indisputable. Surgical at 44% vs cloth at 97% which means surgical masks are much safer.
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Jan 23, 2016
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bobbings wrote: I agree with everything you say except for the touching face part. Even wearing a surgical mask requires you to touch your face if it slides down or is uncomfortable. That part should be a wash when comparing cloth vs surgical. Even when people don't wear masks, you see them touching their noses and mouths all the time. How often do you see people rub their noses or use their fingers to wipe the edge of their mouths? This has more to do with hand hygiene than masks.

The other parts where they have actual % of penetration for various masks is indisputable. Surgical at 44% vs cloth at 97% which means surgical masks are much safer.
Proper surgical masks have a metal nose piece making adjustment less necessary.
They also have a foam strip to prevent glasses fogging.
I've seen coworkers touch their face no less than 50 times in an hour adjusting a mask whereas normally maybe 5?
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Jun 4, 2013
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Are the rents falling for semis and detached in the burbs too? If not, why not?
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Sparky9087 wrote: Proper surgical masks have a metal nose piece making adjustment less necessary.
They also have a foam strip to prevent glasses fogging.
I've seen coworkers touch their face no less than 50 times in an hour adjusting a mask whereas normally maybe 5?
Ya, the metal strip helps.

Wearing a mask isn't the only preventative measure to contracting a disease. Hand hygiene is so important and likely more important than wearing a mask. You might not touch your nose or mouth with a properly fitted mask but rubbing eyes when it's itchy is something that happens often too. It's allergy season and my eyes get crazy itchy and watery. I gotta watch out and remember to wash my hands often. Cheers.
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Any mid month report on the RE market so far in September? Wondering if it's going to be strong going into October.
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muscan wrote: Are the rents falling for semis and detached in the burbs too? If not, why not?
People are fleeing from high rises to suburbia. Living in a high rise is hell right now. Masks mandatory in all common areas. Want to go for a run? Wear a mask downstairs. Then carry it with you while it gets sweaty. Then put it back on when you get back.
Elevators are 2 people max. So if you live above the 12th floor during rush hour you can wait for 15 minutes while car after car goes by with two people in it and stops on every floor.
Everything just takes 5x longer
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Feb 29, 2008
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Sparky9087 wrote: People are fleeing from high rises to suburbia. Living in a high rise is hell right now. Masks mandatory in all common areas. Want to go for a run? Wear a mask downstairs. Then carry it with you while it gets sweaty. Then put it back on when you get back.
Elevators are 2 people max. So if you live above the 12th floor during rush hour you can wait for 15 minutes while car after car goes by with two people in it and stops on every floor.
Everything just takes 5x longer
Laughable. I live in a high rise downtown. Please speak on this “hell” that I’m experiencing?
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Feb 29, 2008
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Qrewpt wrote: I don't disagree with you, we will return to normal, I don't think we will this year, and it's not looking good for most of next year either.

So as for investors taking advantage of low rates and scaredy cats, if I was looking to do that, I still mostly see cash flow negative, low return on capital opportunities out there...so I'd rather let others be the brave ones for now. This opportunities don't seem to exist yet.

That circles me back to the question of how long people hold onto their units hoping for a turnaround, I think there are a lot of speculators out there expecting capital appreciation, which may now seem further off in the future. Which leads me to think there is a good chance we see more supply and soft prices for several years.

Low rates and boc policy have definitely provided tailwinds to the market recently, but there are a tremendous amount of headwinds which we may need to account for looking forward into the new year. From everything that I have read, and in talking to friends, we may start seeing those white collar job losses which you mention, they may start to pile up soon. What stops this from happening at this point.?
We really don’t have any data on investors threshold for pain. If they’re anything like my friends, they can hold for a long time. Remember these are tiny mortgages even with low rent they aren’t breaking the bank. The few investors that are over leveraged will be in trouble. How many? I don’t think a lot. But as you say, the white collar job loss will be something to watch.

Tech sector is booming though. I imagine banking will see some losses. Hospitality was done a while ago but maybe we will see hotel brands close shop for food.

But then this affects all housing not just condos.
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Jan 17, 2006
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Toronto
joepipe wrote: I doubt it ..... demand for detached is strong in GTA.... 10 - 20 offers on average homes in July just shows it....

especially in the under $1 million category.... which is now entry level detached

too many condos were nothing more than a hyped up commodity for years....
Joe the pipe is the example of one who sold condo early and missed on all the condos gains, waited as long as he could for the detached to go down, and bought one on the current highs.
Now he is spending all time posting here to help condos to go down, lol. Enjoy your new home if you have one now, why you are still jealous of those who did good money in condos. I don't understand the people who wish others harm even if it does not benefit them, well even those who benefit from it.
The lesson here is the one that we all heard before, don't time the market.

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