Health & Wellness

COVID-19 vaccines won't end the pandemic.

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Something interesting about the Brazilian and Californian mutations:

https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/19/cor ... infection/
A recent study estimated that three-quarters of residents of the city of Manaus, Brazil had been infected by SARS-2 by October. The hope was that this level of protection might act as a buffer against more transmission. But last month, cases started rising in the city and its state of Amazonas, straining local health systems once again.

When researchers dug into the viral sequences, they found many cases involved a new variant, called P.1, as reported last week. (P.1. has also been identified in people who traveled from Brazil to Japan.) They warned the mutations it contained (including E484K) are “potentially associated with an increase in transmissibility or propensity for re-infection of individuals.”

Scientists suspect there are several potential factors at work in Manaus, which could be playing out together. They’re investigating.

Maybe P.1 is indeed able to evade some existing immune protection, leaving people more susceptible to reinfection. Scientists on Sunday confirmed a case of reinfection caused by P.1 in Amazonas.

Or perhaps P.1 is so transmissible that it can spread just fine even in communities with 75% protection.

Or what if some people in Amazonas who were infected months ago are just generally becoming susceptible again to any form of reinfection, regardless of variants? Though immune responses vary, it’s thought that most people who fend off the virus will have lasting protection for some time — but that it will wane. Already, some reinfections have been reported around the world, without the involvement of more transmissible variants. (It’s thought that reinfections with SARS-2 will generally be milder for most people than their initial case because they still have some immune memory to the virus, even if their systems couldn’t block infection entirely. Scientists will be looking out to see if that holds with different variants.)

What are scientists doing about all this?

Studying it from all angles. One line of inquiry is examining the effects of mutations in isolation and in concert with the other changes dotting the virus’ RNA genome. Essentially, a mutation on its own may not have much of an impact, but it can help a virus spread better or replicate faster if it’s paired with certain other mutations.

Related: Are more people surviving Covid-19 because doctors are doing less?
Scientists are also on the lookout for other potential variants of concern as they comb through sequencing data. But there’s a sense among some experts that new variants are being announced without much helpful information. Lots of mutations will be discovered; it can take some time to figure out what, if anything, each one means.

In California, for example, officials held a press conference Sunday to discuss the L452R variant, which has grown from accounting for 3.8% of samples sequenced in the state in the first half of December to 25.2% of sequences heading into January. “We do not know whether it’s more infectious yet,” UCSF virologist Charles Chiu said, though he added, “it is concerning that it may potentially be more infectious.”

Outside experts were quick to say that more evidence is needed before such a claim can be verified. The variant was first seen in California in May, and hovered at low levels while the state was at low levels of virus overall. Then, it started to increase as the state was suffering from major outbreaks. This can create the illusion that the variant — because it’s so much more prevalent — was perhaps driving the cases. But without more data, it’s just as likely the variant didn’t cause the wave, but simply “went along for the ride,” Goldstein said.
Manaus is one of the worst cities in the world for a pandemic to arise. Very high population density, most of the population lives in squalid conditions and can practice no social distancing, and since it is in the middle of the Amazon, people depend on ferry boats to move around which are densely packed.

It's no surprise it was the first city in the world for a significant proportion of the population to be contaminated, and that the cases have started rising yet again.
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Explanations on the P1 variant.

From 27:00-30:00, he explains why in his opinion this variant will not lead to significant vaccine evasions or reinfection.

Only 10 amino acids have changed in the spike protein, while it is made out of a thousand ones, and the vaccines will confer antibodies against all these parts.

He points out that in the study that was posted on the last page, reinfection was reported, but those cases remain very sporadic. He anticipates a similar situation to the UK variant.

He says however that mutations mean that convalescent plasma and monoclonal antibodies will not work as well because their target is far more narrow.

In another video, he says that one of the big problems with testing how antibodies react against mutations in the blood of that many infected patients have low amounts and low quantity of antibodies in their blood post-infection, because their immune response is not as strong. This was confirmed by one of the researchers who tested this in South Africa, those who had the best response against the problematic mutation were those who had more symptoms, which triggered stronger immunity.

So all in all testing a mutation in the blood really doesn't paint a complete picture.
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https://authors.library.caltech.edu/106725/

First steps toward development of a vaccine that can vaccinate against multiple variants of SARS-CoV-2 at the same time, and recognize possible new variants.

Something like this will probably become a yearly vaccination like the flu vaccine within a year or two.
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Yikes. I'm sorry, but I call BS here. That said, I hope the regulatory bodies get to the bottom of it.

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Time to light up

https://nypost.com/2021/01/22/pennsylva ... cine-line/

The state is bumping smokers to the front of the vaccine line because the habit makes you more vulnerable to the illness, the Pennsylvania Department of Health said Friday.

All people ages 16 to 64 with “high-risk medical conditions” — including being hooked on cigarettes — were added to the first phase of the Keystone State’s coronavirus vaccine distribution plan,

It wasn’t immediately clear how the state will verify whether a person is a smoker, and a health department spokeswoman didn’t immediately return The Post’s request for comment Friday.

The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends that people ages 16 to 64 with high-risk medical conditions should be included in Phase 1C of the vaccine allocation plan. But each state is free to tweak the plan however it sees fit.

New Jersey and Mississippi are also currently offering the vaccine to smokers under the age of 65.
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Recent examples of sensationalized news. Two examples of why understanding math helps you realize when you are being deceived.

You've read in the news that "Israel has shown that the first dose is only 33% effective at preventing COVID-19". But how were these numbers obtained?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55734257
Clalit, Israel's largest healthcare provider, covering most of the population, compared the medical records of 200,000 vaccinated over-60s with the same number belonging to unvaccinated people.

For two weeks after the first dose, both groups tested positive for the virus at roughly the same rate.

But then those vaccinated started to show 33% fewer new infections than the others.

"This is very early protection," said Clalit chief innovation officer, Ran Balicher, who is also a public health professor advising the government.

And "already there is a 33% fall".

Infections continued to decline after that.

But there were too few for Prof Balicher to calculate by what percentage.
So essentially they just compared 200,000 random over-60s who were vaccinated to 200,000 who weren't, after two weeks.

They don't have any clue of WHEN the vaccinated people were infected with the virus. We already know that it takes about two weeks for immunity to start arising.

In other words: this is total junk science.

And about the UK strain being 30 to 91% more deadly:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/ ... re-deadly/
However, Mr Vallance said that 13 or 14 people per 1000 would die of the new strain, compared to around 10 of the old strain.
This is one of the oldest tricks in the book to make something unimpressive sound impressive in science: divide two numbers with minuscule differences and make a big percentage out of it.
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Poutinesauce wrote:
And about the UK strain being 30 to 91% more deadly:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/ ... re-deadly/
One should consider reading the actual NERVTAG paper. An R increase of 40% or a death increase of, a mere, 30% are both incredibly scary numbers. R is exponential. A death is a death of course, but this also implies an increase in negative symptoms - say long COVID-19.

All TBD by scientists of course, but I certainly wouldn't disregard it as fear mongering, or whatever.
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angryaudifanatic wrote: One should consider reading the actual NERVTAG paper. An R increase of 40% or a death increase of, a mere, 30% are both incredibly scary numbers. R is exponential. A death is a death of course, but this also implies an increase in negative symptoms - say long COVID-19.

All TBD by scientists of course, but I certainly wouldn't disregard it as fear mongering, or whatever.
It would amount to a lot of death when millions of people are involved for sure, if it was true. But the data is not only incomplete (they say they only have 8%), it doesn't look reliable either.

In the article itself they say they have big doubts.

But we only see the lines that cast doubt on and negate the thesis in the body of the text, not in the attention grabbing headline.

I just wanted people to remember that the "percentage trick" is often used in scientific research and in the media to manipulate people. Sometimes the difference in what is being compared is statistically insignificant, but this allows it to appear significant.

I'm not saying this is 100% what is happening here but it's worth keeping in mind.
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Do people still doubt this did NOT come from a laboratory. As in, sure, it's from nature, but it was isolated, being played around with, experimented, studied with lax standards.
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at1212b wrote: Do people still doubt this did NOT come from a laboratory. As in, sure, it's from nature, but it was isolated, being played around with, experimented, studied with lax standards.
With the secrecy and iron fist of the CCP, there is no means to know for sure. My guess is that we will never know.

I love the way the Epoch Times calls SARS-CoV2: the CCP virus, to put the blame back exactly where it belongs.
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Retired virologist doubts that the British variant is more deadly:

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2021/ ... s-mortel-1
While it seems undeniable that the variant is more contagious, Mr. Lapierre believes that one needs to be careful before claiming that it is more deadly.

“Being more contagious, it infects more people. If our pool of [infected] people is bigger, well, that's going to translate into more mortality. So, is it the virus that is really deadlier or is it that there are more people infected? ”He asks himself.
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angryaudifanatic wrote: Yikes. I'm sorry, but I call BS here. That said, I hope the regulatory bodies get to the bottom of it.

What proof do you have to call this BS ?
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pfbmgd wrote: What proof do you have to call this BS ?
Because it isn't backed up by any of the scientific results in the Phase 3 trials.
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Poutinesauce wrote: With the secrecy and iron fist of the CCP, there is no means to know for sure. My guess is that we will never know.

I love the way the Epoch Times calls SARS-CoV2: the CCP virus, to put the blame back exactly where it belongs.
Funny thing is, its explicitly ok and allowed to be called the "UK" or "South African" or "Brazilian" strain. But Chinese virus or strain? Nope.. not allowed. Funnier that nobody is even pointing that out anywhere.
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at1212b wrote: Funny thing is, its explicitly ok and allowed to be called the "UK" or "South African" or "Brazilian" strain. But Chinese virus or strain? Nope.. not allowed. Funnier that nobody is even pointing that out anywhere.
Let's do our part by also calling it the CCP virus in this thread from here onward. If the CCP wasn't desperate to keep its hold on power at any cost, none of this pandemic would have happened. They reprimanded and jailed doctors who tried to sound the alarm before it was too late.
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angryaudifanatic wrote: Because it isn't backed up by any of the scientific results in the Phase 3 trials.
Where did you get that information from ? A link to your Phase 3 trials would help .
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Now another report says that the diminishment of infections in Israel in vaccinated people is 60%

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... d-60s.html
Proof the Pfizer Covid vaccine works in the real world? Israeli healthcare group says coronavirus infections have PLUNGED by at least 60% among vaccinated over-60s


Israeli healthcare firm KSM Maccabi Research and Innovation Center on Friday reported on vaccination data
It said there had been a 'significant decrease' coronavirus infections among vaccinated over-65s

Also found that hospitalisations in the same group had plunged by more than 60 per cent

Over 2.5 million of Israeli citizens have had the first vaccine dose, around 30 per cent of population
Teenagers aged 16-18 are now being given the first dose of the vaccine, starting on Saturday

An Israeli healthcare group on Friday said coronavirus infections had plunged among people aged over 60 who had been vaccinated with the Pfizer Biontech vaccine.

Israel is currently leading the global vaccination drive, with around 30 per cent of its citizens having had at least a single dose of a jab so far.

But concern had risen globally over infection, death and hospitalisation rates in the country, which remained stubbornly high.

Out of 82,930 active cases on Thursday, 1,918 were hospitalized. Last week, the hospitalisation figure was just over 1,000.

Officials had hoped that the vaccine drive - which began on December 19 - would start to show an effect by mid-February.

But KSM Maccabi Research and Innovation Center claimed on Friday there had been a 'significant decrease' in the number of coronavirus infections among people aged over 60 who were vaccinated between December 19 and 24.

After analysing data of more than 50,000 patients aged over 60, they also found that hospitalisations in the same group had plunged by more than 60 per cent.

Israel secured access to large amounts of Pfizer's jab by agreeing to provide data about its citizens for the company to track how well the jab works.

The new figures are a sign of hope that nationwide infections, deaths and hospitalisations could soon start to see a sustained fall.

It came amid reports that England's chief medical officer was so infuriated by a newspaper story which claimed that a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine might only be 33 per cent effective that he threatened to report it to a press watchdog.


Chris Whitty told colleagues The Guardian's report was 'total nonsense' which could threaten the uptake of the jab.

KSM Maccabi Research and Innovation Center's report was based on data 50,777 members of Maccabi who were aged over 60 and were vaccinated 23 days ago.

KSM, which is part of Israeli healthcare provider Maccabi, noted that there was a 'significant decrease within the vaccinated members aged 60+', reaching a decrease of around 60 per cent in new infections.

They added that there was also a 'decrease of slightly more than 60 per cent in the number of new hospitalised patients.'

However, KSM cautioned that 'on this level of efficiency, there should be no exemption from performing Corona tests, isolation, or the enablement of crowded gatherings, until additional convincing data is obtained.

'And of course continue to wear masks and keep social distancing, as recommended'.

In their story about the effectiveness of a single dose of the Pfizer jab, The Guardian had quoted 'Israeli experts' as saying only a third of people who have received one injection were protected.

No 10's vaccine advisers say the real figure is 89 per cent, starting 14 days after the first jab.

It was reported yesterday that a single shot of the Pfizer vaccine had led to a 'major presence' of antibodies in 91 per cent of doctors and nurses who received it in Israel within 21 days.

A source told the Mail On Sunday: 'It is not every day that a member of the liberal academic establishment is angered by The Guardian.'

On Friday, Israel announced a further 6,159 new cases, an 18 per cent increase on the figure of 5,235 announced seven days ago, but down from Wednesdays and Thursdays totals, of 10,213 and 7,027 respectively.

Since the rollout of vaccinations one month ago, more than 2.5 million of Israel's nine-million-strong population have been vaccinated already, the health ministry said on Friday.

It came as the Israeli health ministry on Thursday announced it was allowing the inoculation of high school students aged 16-18, subject to parental approval.

The health ministry had on Thursday announced it was allowing the inoculation of high school students aged 16-18, subject to parental approval.

Expanding the campaign to include teens came days after Israel extended on Tuesday till the end of the month its third national coronavirus lockdown due to a surge in coronavirus infections despite the vaccinations.
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I'm not sure the way this data was analysed and collected isn't BS either. But I think it is more in line with reality, and the clinical trials from Pfizer also more in line with reality.

I showed in an earlier post why the 33% figure after 14 days was baloney. They don't know when these people are infected. It's no secret that you can be infected after the first dose because it takes about ten days for immunity to start building up. There are plenty of seniors in LTC homes in Canada who were infected after the first shot, because there was an outbreak in the complex while the vaccination was taking place.

To make articles about a 33% claim based on such laughable evidence is yellow journalism.
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Poutinesauce wrote: With the secrecy and iron fist of the CCP, there is no means to know for sure. My guess is that we will never know.

I love the way the Epoch Times calls SARS-CoV2: the CCP virus, to put the blame back exactly where it belongs.
No need go to politics . Although what you said is the fact. But probably better talk it that way in off topic

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