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  • May 13th, 2017 10:19 am
30 replies
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
11952 posts
15418 upvotes
Toronto
I'm not a seller but I have a two rental properties in Toronto and have been closely watching sales over the last 4 weeks. One is downtown and a similar unit just sold for $50,000 more than one has ever sold for. The other is in Scarborough and a similar unit just sold for $30,000 more than one has ever sold for. From what I am seeing prices are still going up a lot.
Newbie
Mar 8, 2017
91 posts
71 upvotes
I'm watching my area in Richmond Hill and there are a lot of listings that did not sell on offer night and they are increasing their prices by 300-400. This tells me that most of these listings are just trying to cash out and if they don't get a big chunk they are not selling. They all want more then what the comp sold for just last month.
Their agents should tell them if you don't have to sell, get the hell out of MLS.
So if you're a buyer, buy now cause you'll find the ones that have to sell and you can actually negotiate.
Deal Addict
Sep 30, 2011
2113 posts
746 upvotes
Every property I had bid for and sell has no foreign buyer involved, but FBT along with other 15 measure do have clear impact on the market at now:

Every average house are still sold at higher price or similar price than Feb, but far less bidder; high-end / large detach get really slow with lower price, hence the average price drop.
Again, it is still buyer on the grill
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Deal Addict
Oct 29, 2010
4363 posts
698 upvotes
ryoukiddingme wrote: I'm watching my area in Richmond Hill and there are a lot of listings that did not sell on offer night and they are increasing their prices by 300-400. This tells me that most of these listings are just trying to cash out and if they don't get a big chunk they are not selling. They all want more then what the comp sold for just last month.
Their agents should tell them if you don't have to sell, get the hell out of MLS.
So if you're a buyer, buy now cause you'll find the ones that have to sell and you can actually negotiate.
There are 2 main tactics, you either under list hoping to get a lot of people bid against each other or you list it for the price that you're looking for and let it sit until you get it.
Because it's slower now, not as many people involved with the bidding wars so it doesn't make sense to under list anymore.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Mar 14, 2006
4402 posts
807 upvotes
hard to tell. supply is like 500% of january/february right now
Deal Addict
Jan 26, 2016
2218 posts
2242 upvotes
Toronto, ON
mingyang wrote: hard to tell. supply is like 500% of january/february right now
Image
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
11952 posts
15418 upvotes
Toronto
That's only because those months were at a historic low. A one month bump in supply after new rules is not surprising at all. Everyone on the edge of cashing out jumped in. Doesn't mean anything unless supply continues to increase month over month.
Member
Jul 25, 2005
436 posts
129 upvotes
rjg4235 wrote: That's only because those months were at a historic low. A one month bump in supply after new rules is not surprising at all. Everyone on the edge of cashing out jumped in. Doesn't mean anything unless supply continues to increase month over month.
Or... Demand goes down because:
1. foreign buyers are out due to law changes
2. flippers and speculators are out due to new rules
3. regular buyers are out because they're "waiting for a crash/correction"
4. the valuation of real estate as a commodity drops due to recent HCG situation and perception of our economy
5. increasing interest rates.

Nobody knows, or should pretend to know.
Sr. Member
Aug 15, 2013
839 posts
415 upvotes
Guelph
Whats up with all these threads, like everyday a new thread about the same topic.

The last correction lasted 8 years, and the rally after that has been on for 20 years. What do ppl expect to see in a month?

Whether you're a bull or bear.. you won't see any meaningful information in a month. This isn't stock market, and even there a month is not long enough to identify a long term trend.
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
11952 posts
15418 upvotes
Toronto
I think people know you can't conclusively determine what is going to happen in the next 12 months. They are looking for trends and indications so they can make an educated guess and act accordingly.
Deal Addict
Jan 26, 2016
2218 posts
2242 upvotes
Toronto, ON
Avi44 wrote: Or... Demand goes down because:
1. foreign buyers are out due to law changes
2. flippers and speculators are out due to new rules
3. regular buyers are out because they're "waiting for a crash/correction"
4. the valuation of real estate as a commodity drops due to recent HCG situation and perception of our economy
5. increasing interest rates.

Nobody knows, or should pretend to know.
Just like it happened in Vancouver.

oh wait...
Deal Fanatic
Jun 7, 2005
9657 posts
1113 upvotes
I can't wait for the deep correction and double the size of my house Face With Tears Of Joy Currently those mansions that I am interested in are totally out of reach at $4-5 million+ where they used to be just a bit over a million $ 10 years ago Face With Tears Of Joy
Member
Jul 25, 2005
436 posts
129 upvotes
WinterSleep wrote: Just like it happened in Vancouver.

oh wait...
Sorry, didn't realize it's 2016 or that Toronto is a suburb of Vancouver.

Oh wait...
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Jul 14, 2008
8312 posts
1897 upvotes
Ontario
Avi44 wrote: Sorry, didn't realize it's 2016 or that Toronto is a suburb of Vancouver.

Oh wait...
The point was that although there was some immediate reaction in Vancouver with a similar measure, after months past there was no impact. It picked up right where it idled...
Member
Jul 25, 2005
436 posts
129 upvotes
onlineharvest wrote: The point was that although there was some immediate reaction in Vancouver with a similar measure, after months past there was no impact. It picked up right where it idled...
My point is that we shouldn't extrapolate data from a different city in a different year in different circumstances and expect the same results.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Jul 14, 2008
8312 posts
1897 upvotes
Ontario
Avi44 wrote: My point is that we shouldn't extrapolate data from a different city in a different year in different circumstances and expect the same results.
Why not? These two are lumped together often, and in fact, one can argue there are MORE foreign buyers in Vancouver as opposed to Toronto. So, making a comparison between the cities if a 15% FBT actually changes anything is relevant.

Personally, I find this whole thing comical anyway. Government says, 'we need to change documentation rules so we know how many foreign buyers there are', indicating they don't really know if this is even a problem, what is the scale, etc, but somehow taxing foreigners is going to solve anything? I mean, if you had the data and taxed that segment accordingly, OK. But this certainly appears to be a 'let's throw it against the wall and see if it sticks' and expect that kind of policy to have legs. Or even if 15% tax will even inhibit foreigners from continuing to invest in these markets - or if it just becomes another 'cost of doing business'
Sr. Member
Aug 15, 2013
839 posts
415 upvotes
Guelph
onlineharvest wrote:
The point was that although there was some immediate reaction in Vancouver with a similar measure, after months past there was no impact. It picked up right where it idled...
Avi44 wrote: My point is that we shouldn't extrapolate data from a different city in a different year in different circumstances and expect the same results.
And actually, it hasn't picked off where it left. People are not looking at the complete data, or just choose to ignore it.

Since FBT, the listings are way up and the sales are way down. Detached prices aren't moving but that is expected as RE prices are sticky in the short term. Also, the rise in prices people are quoting today is vs March'2017. The FBT was brought in August. Will be interesting to see YOY price in September. They should compare prices since FBT, not YOY. Lastly, the price rise in Vancouver since FBT is mainly seen in Condos/cheaper houses and the interest free loans for first time buyers played a big part in that.

Obviously, many still will not look or believe the facts and keep on harping Vancouver is in a boom and the meteoric rise continues.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Jul 14, 2008
8312 posts
1897 upvotes
Ontario
dundeal wrote: And actually, it hasn't picked off where it left. People are not looking at the complete data, or just choose to ignore it.

Since FBT, the listings are way up and the sales are way down. Detached prices aren't moving but that is expected as RE prices are sticky in the short term. Also, the rise in prices people are quoting today is vs March'2017. The FBT was brought in August. Will be interesting to see YOY price in September. They should compare prices since FBT, not YOY. Lastly, the price rise in Vancouver since FBT is mainly seen in Condos/cheaper houses and the interest free loans for first time buyers played a big part in that.

Obviously, many still will not look or believe the facts and keep on harping Vancouver is in a boom and the meteoric rise continues.
Who says there in a boom? It's just not having the impact people thought it would. People were saying "here comes the 80% crash" after the measures there, just like the 10000000000 new threads here are now.

If it didn't affect the condo market - which we are continually told is the bread and butter of the speculative crowd - what does that signal?
Sr. Member
Aug 15, 2013
839 posts
415 upvotes
Guelph
onlineharvest wrote: If it didn't affect the condo market - which we are continually told is the bread and butter of the speculative crowd - what does that signal?
It signals the housing demand removed by FBT was compensated by demand created by interest free loans and so.. the rise in condo prices continues.
Last edited by dundeal on May 12th, 2017 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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