Did we just hit the bottom of the Toronto RE correction?

rjg4235 wrote: ↑ No one knows what will happen in the next 12 months but there are some interesting similarities to Vancouver. Not the least of which is a strong condo market;

https://news.vice.com/story/sorry-toron ... new-normal

The benchmark home price for all types of homes in Vancouver is now $998,700, up seven percent from July of last year, just before the housing rules were announced. Basically, nothing has changed. Prices are high, affordability is low, and we’re essentially back at square one.

“This whole tax thing was brought about in the guise of creating home affordability,” said Ash. “The reality of the situation is that it was politically motivated, given the looming spring election and the Liberals were under pressure by the NDP, so they put some sort of tax in place.”

Ash claims that the Vancouver market rebounded because of B.C.’s strong economy and the motivation of mainland Chinese, in particular, to get their money out of China in any way possible, undeterred by any form of tax. “They look worldwide — compared to L.A., Seattle, Sydney, San Francisco, Vancouver homes are still a good option.”

The latest housing data from the Toronto Real Estate Board shows a price trajectory similar to Vancouver’s in the immediate aftermath of the foreign buyers tax.

The Ontario government slapped a 15 percent tax on foreign buyers on April 20th this year — not only have home sales plunged for three consecutive months now, home prices have been steadily decreasing.

The average price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area was $746,218 in July, a far cry from the $921,000 in April.

“The typical month-over-month decline from June to July is 15 percent, this year we saw a 30 percent decline in the same period, indicating an increased velocity in the slowdown,” said Lauren Haw, CEO of real-estate listing site Zoocasa.

But the word out there is that this trend won’t last. “I’ve been tracking both Toronto and Vancouver for some time. Watch what happens in September — prices are going to shoot back up,” claims David Fleming, a Toronto-based realtor for Bosley Real Estate.

“Prices declined because of optics. We had Morneau, Trudeau, Tory stand at a podium and convince the people of Toronto that they were going to do something about housing affordability. That put buyers on hold. But foreign buyers are not just going to stop buying, they are going to just find a different way of doing it.”

2017 Toronto Average Sale Price

January $768,330
February $876,640
March $916,767
April $919,449
May $864,491
June $793,585
July $746,218 ---> New bottom?

trekkie500 wrote: ↑ Mostly based on a quote from a VP at ReMax. Not that it is reason to discount him but I would take the article lightly given the bias.

Personally I think August will probably be a noticeable drop too. We'll see what happens in September. I doubt it will continue to slide as badly though; as much as people love to compare current time to the early 90s, we are halfway through what happened in that correction despite just 2-4 MOI. At peak crash in 90s, MOI was 21 months I read somewhere. That alone tells me that this is psychology based, which is unpredictable and can reverse any time.

rjg4235 wrote: ↑ Here's another source, albeit still in RE he is a MBA, CPA, CA and has some interesting data. 2008 was a down year for Toronto and saw days on the market go up to 44, we are currently at 15.

https://www.century21.ca/scott.ingram/b ... rket_-_yet

Luckyinfil wrote: ↑ This falling knife will last for years. Anyone who's buying now will be underwater very quickly as prices plummet.

Come September, supply will flood the market even more and accelerate the price drop further.

It's a good time to be alive and watch those overleveraged home owners lose their houses.

rjg4235 wrote: ↑ Lol how sad is your life that families and children losing their homes would make it a good time to be alive to watch? You should seriously seek help.

Also you must be incredibly rich if you can predict the future of markets. Put your money where your mouth is and short banks.

Luckyinfil wrote: ↑ This falling knife will last for years. Anyone who's buying now will be underwater very quickly as prices plummet.

Come September, supply will flood the market even more and accelerate the price drop further.

It's a good time to be alive and watch those overleveraged home owners lose their houses.

Koalabear4rfd wrote: ↑ Why do people think listing will increase in September? Owners who need to sell have already listed in this market condition.

Koalabear4rfd wrote: ↑ Why do people think listing will increase in September? Owners who need to sell have already listed in this market condition.

Engi-Nir wrote: ↑ It will go back to april peak in September, gud, why so many threads?

Xbowop wrote: ↑ I always thought timing markets is foolish, but man you gotta have balls to buy right now when it could mean losing 50k a month in value.

I think market correction still has some way to go. Prices in Toronto are way overpriced when you compare to rent.

Avi44 wrote: ↑
So what you're saying is that we're almost at the "Bull Trap" now and September will be the "Return to 'Normal'"?
Seems like OP is in "Denial" after celebrating too much during the "New Paradigm" in March/April.

Can anyone explain why this graph won't apply to the GTA market?

Avi44 wrote: ↑
So what you're saying is that we're almost at the "Bull Trap" now and September will be the "Return to 'Normal'"?
Seems like OP is in "Denial" after celebrating too much during the "New Paradigm" in March/April.

Can anyone explain why this graph won't apply to the GTA market?