Investing

Early 2020 - are we in a stock market bubble ?

  • Last Updated:
  • Feb 27th, 2020 1:03 pm
Member
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Nov 14, 2017
324 posts
415 upvotes
Vancouver
sparkaction wrote: Financial markets can be overvalued for a very long time making market timing very difficult. Just look at the performance of the Japanese market. It's just about to turn the corner. It's been dead money for investors since at least 1996 as far as this chart goes back.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EWJ?p=E ... c=fin-srch
Are you saying that I should invest in EWJ because it's gonna go solid?
Member
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Jan 15, 2009
377 posts
56 upvotes
Toronto
Lots of people pointing to the Fed's QE and buybacks keeping the markets artificially high.
Sr. Member
Oct 21, 2016
595 posts
360 upvotes
showmethemoney2009 wrote: Lots of people pointing to the Fed's QE and buybacks keeping the markets artificially high.
Best post. Barring a fed rate increase due to rampant inflation the stock market will keep humming state side. Cheap money will keep flooding in via institutional investors . Once the fed raises rates consistently the bubble will pop. I feel growth will continue in the short to mid term as inflation is low , corporate earnings are good , fed rate is low , US treasury yields suck and return is below inflation. All these factors will lead to growth in the US stock market
Deal Fanatic
Jul 1, 2007
8341 posts
1341 upvotes
With neverending QE, the last thing I would want my wealth concentrated in is currency (cash, GICs, bonds, etc).
Money Smarts Blog wrote: I agree with the previous posters, especially Thalo. {And} Thalo's advice is spot on.
Sr. Member
Oct 21, 2016
595 posts
360 upvotes
Thalo wrote: With neverending QE, the last thing I would want my wealth concentrated in is currency (cash, GICs, bonds, etc).
That is exactly why insitutional investors are piling money into the US market . US treasury bond yields are pathetic due to low rates and like cash don't even keep up with inflatation. They have no choice but to ride with the stock market as the alternatives suck. I don't see them going gold or BTC to any large degree.
Deal Fanatic
Jul 1, 2007
8341 posts
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Shaun80 wrote: That is exactly why insitutional investors are piling money into the US market . US treasury bond yields are pathetic due to low rates and like cash don't even keep up with inflatation. They have no choice but to ride with the stock market as the alternatives suck. I don't see them going gold or BTC to any large degree.
Far more money is going into the money instruments themselves, often with no choice (pension plan directive to have X% in bonds, etc). When the U.S. government can borrow over a trillion dollars a year and the market is still more than willing to lend at 2%, that's a bubble.
Money Smarts Blog wrote: I agree with the previous posters, especially Thalo. {And} Thalo's advice is spot on.
Deal Addict
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Mar 3, 2012
3136 posts
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Mississauga
Bubble pops, buy the dip.
I love RFD! :)
Deal Addict
Oct 23, 2017
1350 posts
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GTA West
FarmerHarv wrote: The correct answer is nöyes, therefore I will maintain the 70/25/5 equity/fixed/cash as guided by my personal risk profile and timeline.
This. Keep your chosen allocation straws firmly between your teeth like the Farmer! Just rebalance annually if equities go overweight.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 9, 2009
8740 posts
6100 upvotes
I know I bought capital power like in oct and it’s already up 25%. It was yielding over 6% before now it’s 5%

So people bought up the yields. Lots of the utilities seems overbought so they could definitely use a correction.
Jr. Member
Aug 22, 2012
182 posts
114 upvotes
Mark Town
Do not time the market. Market could go hyperbolic before pullback. Ride it through.
Banned
Jan 20, 2017
584 posts
141 upvotes
gei wrote: Actually, as has been proven time and time again, anyone who thinks they can time the market is going to learn a painful lesson.
Not exactly, sometimes the writing is on the wall
Deal Fanatic
Apr 25, 2006
5861 posts
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lol this thread is full of people posting stuff but not saying much in them. My post included.
"If you make a mistake but then change your ways, it is like never having made a mistake at all" - Confucius
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Sep 19, 2013
2294 posts
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Winnipeg
1xTiMeR wrote: lol this thread is full of people posting stuff but not saying much in them. My post included.
Yes.
In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move. -- Douglas Adams
Member
Apr 7, 2014
223 posts
75 upvotes
Whitby, ON
rudyrednose wrote: Greetings,

Relative newbie here. I have been contributing like clockwork a fixed cash amount on each payday to my QT account since August.
Then manually purchasing VDY in the days following, most of the time. Sometimes delaying or even skipping a purchase, then purchase double next payday.

Seems to me unit price has been increasing like crazy since the low of this summer. Much more than underlying economy should bring (as perceived).
Tomorrow I will have 3x my normal VDY purchase amount in my QT cash account, wondering if I should keep delaying purchase while VDY is so high...

Those buy on (small) dips have been good to me so far, in my short VDY experience. I know, nobody can time the market. But I will be in accumulation phase for several years, just picking better moments for my regular purchases...

Indexes have been rising like crazy in the last months. I am under impression it is not fundamentals that drive the market at this point, but plain speculation.
Do you think we are in a bubble, on a verge of a correction ? (as I am in accumulation phase in a high dividend yield ETF, I would love a market correction)

Cheers.
Hopefully your question has been answered in the last 2 days.
Follow https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader for more info..
Everyone will say something else.. Northman will say.. BUBBLE!

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