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Which economist are you following? & Why?

  • Last Updated:
  • Apr 13th, 2020 3:15 am
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Jul 30, 2003
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Which economist are you following? & Why?

I am always weary of "experts" & economist, especially the ones on TV. Yet I was recently humbled by a nice gentleman (hedge manager) who seems to have much better understanding - and hence a good grasp of how future is (most likely) going to unroll in investment market.

This got me thinking:

1 - Is there any ranking of these economist to know how accurate they are?

2 - Who are the whales that we should be following so get a better idea of what is going to happen?
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Nov 9, 2013
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This probably isn't what you are looking for, but the only economist I pay attention to is Tyler Cowen.
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Dec 13, 2005
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I don't follow a single economist, but each bank has an economics group that publishes research and forecasts. I find TD to be particularly good.

https://economics.td.com/
[OP]
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Jul 30, 2003
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So famous visionaries ...

RAy Dalio - https://www.principles.com/

Jim Rogers

Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics = 2008 Crash predictor

Peter Schiff, CEO and chief policy strategist at Euro Pacific Capital = 2008 cash predictor

.... Heck even Rich Dad, Poor Dad guy

no one trust any of them?
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adavidso wrote: I don't follow a single economist, but each bank has an economics group that publishes research and forecasts. I find TD to be particularly good.

https://economics.td.com/
I started following in 2007 for TD and RBC and I was trying to keep tabs on their accuracy. When 2008 crash came and they were both way off - that was big turn off. Yes TD did sounded better in their reports.

Currently I like zacks.com ... They been more right than wrong overall in their free newletter. NOt sure how good is their paid services.
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treva84 wrote: This probably isn't what you are looking for, but the only economist I pay attention to is Tyler Cowen.
IS he economist - I see general news on his twitter. NOt particularly analyze and predictions.
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What exactly are you trying to get from an economist? An economist can only dissect economic data and make general predictions of what may or may not happen in the short, medium and long term future. The problem with these predictions is that any of them can be reasonable, yet are confounded as anything that does come up. Many economists predicted 2020 as having continued high growth and equity price increase if not for the pandemic situation. And even if such an event doesn't occur, markets can stay irrational relatively longer than expected.

Even of the economists you have mentioned, they have predicted large events, however, they also have a poor track record for general trends. Roubini called for further declines after the mortgage crisis and slow recovery in 2010s. Rogers is notoriously known for calling for downturns in the US equity market to occur over the last 10 years. I do not give much credence for these predictions these famous people make because in the end of the day, they are merely predictions, where many confounding factors can easily change the outcome or simply the end result isn't exactly occuring because timing is wrong.

What I like to see from an economist is general trends or data that they see. Any economist worth their salt looks at the economy as a whole, can pick out shifts and trends such as increased consumer debt levels, incomes in pace of inflation, hiring demand and what outcomes can occur from that such as decreased future demand, decreased disposable income etc. When it relates to investing, I do not rely on what an economist states to do this. More importantly, the balance sheet and market situation of a specific company or industry has a greater effect than the macroeconomic factors. Just like how one's personal finances is a greater indicator for your financial help vs the economic picture in general.

I will read any article by any economist. People like TD's Ed Clark etc. generally indicate trends and make educated predictions on what may happen. I take that opinion as what may likely happen, but I don't make any investment decision on that whatsoever. At most, i take it as, "those concerns may mean lower returns this year." or "strong growth will mean I might get a higher return." My decisions dont change on this info.

Whatever you do, avoid the predictions on most of those you listed. They have mostly made a name selling their brand on the likes of MSNBC, CNN Money, Fox Business and on one big prediction that they got right. Besides, your Investment decision shouldn't change based on what they say. Rather develop your investment strategy and base decisions on this. An economist will certainly not make you rich.
Last edited by xgbsSS on Apr 13th, 2020 10:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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PrinceMS wrote: So famous visionaries ...

RAy Dalio - https://www.principles.com/

Jim Rogers

Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics = 2008 Crash predictor

Peter Schiff, CEO and chief policy strategist at Euro Pacific Capital = 2008 cash predictor

.... Heck even Rich Dad, Poor Dad guy

no one trust any of them?
Ray Dalio is amazing; probably one of the only billionaires that’s willing to give an uncensored view of current events. And he actually uses research and stats to back things up!

Rich Dad, Poor Dad guy.. not so much lol.

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