Europe launches new restrictions to slow second wave of coronavirus infections
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/a ... ronavirus/
It's been dizzying few weeks since "reopening" of tourism in Europe but with it increasing covid19 cases and countries throwing up quarantine and other restrictions with only hours of notice and affecting travelersEurope launches new restrictions to slow second wave of coronavirus infections
New restrictions are being rolled out across Europe as governments try to contain a surge in COVID-19 infections without imposing national lockdowns that would propel economies into a second crisis.
The new wave of restrictions comes only a month or two after some countries and regions assumed the worst of the pandemic was behind them, only to see the infection rate climb to record or near-record levels. The second wave is hitting France, Spain, the U.K. and a few countries in Central Europe particularly hard
Seems Iceland after initially only requiring a negative test and getting surge in cases has a pragmatic approach where it's negative test to travel there, 6 day quarantine and then another negative test before being released
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/euro ... index.html
Iceland has requirement of 6 day quarantine with negative test on arrival and after 5 days but it's not really feasible for any larger country like Canada or other countries due to amount of visitors and entry points
Also, unlike another poster with fake/wrong comments regarding like 99% become symptomatic in 5 days (with zero citations and totally not backed by any research papers)
https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/me ... 4-2020.pdf
Current research papers suggest it's actually around 18 days for 99th percentile while 11-14 days will get you 97th percentile
Incubation Period Estimates Based on Modelling from Case Report Data
4) Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou L, Tong Y, et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan,
China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020 Jan 29 [Epub ahead of
print]. Available from: https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316.
Based on information from 10 cases, the mean incubation period was estimated to be 5.2 days
(95% confidence interval: 4.1-7.0), with the 95th percentile for the incubation period estimated
at 12.5 days. The authors acknowledge that is a somewhat imprecise estimate.
5) Backer JA, Don Klinkenberg D, Wallinga J. The incubation period of 2019-nCoV infections
among travellers from Wuhan, China. medRxiv. 2020 Jan 30.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20018986v2.
This is a study of 88 individuals who had been in Wuhan, but had their infections diagnosed
elsewhere after leaving Wuhan. For the best fitting model, the mean incubation period was
estimated at 6.4 days (95% credible interval: 5.6-7.7 days). For this model, the estimated
incubation period ranged from 2.1-11.1 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentile). The poorest fitting
model estimated the 97.5th percentile incubation period at 15.5 days and the 99th percentile
incubation period at 18.5 days. The authors suggested that keeping infected people in
“quarantine for up to 14 days will ensure that they do not develop symptoms after release.”
6) Linton NM, Kobayashi T, Yang Y, Hayashi K, Akhmetzhanov AR, Jung S-M, Yuan B, Kinoshita R,
Nishiura H. Epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infection: a statistical analysis
of publicly available case data. medRxiv. 2020 Jan 26.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20018754v1.
This is a modelling study based on two groups: Group 1) visitors to Wuhan (12 cases) and
Group 2) visitors to Wuhan, as well as Wuhan residents who were diagnosed outside Wuhan
(31 cases). Using the best fitting of three models, the median incubation periods were 4.6 days
(95% confidence interval (CI): 3.3-5.8) and 5.0 days (95% CI: 4.0-5.8) for groups 1 and 2
respectively. The 99th percentile for the best fitting model was 8.4 days (95% CI: 5.7-10.3) and
8.6 days (95% CI: 6.3-10.5), for groups 1 and 2 respectively. The longest 99th percentile
incubation period for all the models for either group was 13.0 days (95% CI: 7.1-20.7).
7) Zheng Q, Meredith H, Grantz K, Bi Q, Jones F, Lauer S. Estimating the incubation time of the
Wuhan coronavirus based on traveler data using coarse data tools. HopkinsIDD. 2020 Jan 29.
This is a modelling study based on 101 cases of 2019-nCoV confirmed outside of Hubei province
(i.e., in other countries or in other regions of Mainland China with no known local
transmission). Median incubation period was estimated at 5.2 days (95%CI: 4.5-6.0). The 2.5th
percentile incubation period was estimated to be 2.5 days (95%CI: 1.8-3.6), while the 97.5th
percentile was estimated to be 10.5 days (95%CI: 7.4-15.1).