Real Estate

Family making $200K a year worried they're priced out of the housing market

[OP]
Jr. Member
Aug 6, 2008
192 posts
253 upvotes

Family making $200K a year worried they're priced out of the housing market

This post is inspired by various newspaper columns where a family shares their financial situation and a financial planning professional offers critiques and tips. I’m doing the same here and maybe some forum members will find it interesting or can provide some critique or advice. I fully understand nothing here can be construed as professional advice.

Me: 37-year-old CPA working at a non-profit. Gross $135K a year. Being an NPO, lots of job security and work life balance, but no bonuses and salary increases are going to be at or near inflation.

Wife: 32-year-old public servant. Makes $75K with DB pension. Her grid tops out at $100K in a few years.

We have a toddler and will likely plan for another kid in a few years.

Living and working outside the GTA, we bought a 1,500 sq.ft. detached home in 2015 for $300K. The house is now worth $750K. We have $235K mortgage remaining.

Our TFSAs has market value of approx. $200K. mostly in equity index funds, and some tech stocks (couldn’t resist). RRSP and DC pension total $220K. No other liabilities. Our net worth is just under $1M.

We live well below our means, and because our current mortgage is so small, we are saving almost 50% of our gross income. We saved $60K in our TFSA and RRSP last year even though wife was on mat leave. We expect to save approx. $100K this year towards our TFSA, RESP and RRSP. I did not count any contributions towards wife’s DB pension. Once we max out our TFSA next year, we will open taxable accounts.

With every increase in home values or stock market, it decreases the buying power of our future income. Gone are the days where you can have a median household income, and afford a nice house, a cottage, a boat and raise four kids. Our gross household income of $200K+, we are very concerned that we will be priced out of our dream home and raise a second kid.

The forever home we want was $700K before the pandemic. It’s now $1M. If we wait another two or three years, it may very well be $1.3M to $1.5M. The rise in the value of our current home can’t possibly keep up. Our salaries and savings won’t be able to keep that up either.

My current thoughts are whether we should take more risk in our investments. Our jobs/incomes are steady, but we are being priced out of the two biggest areas where our money will go – a home and investments. Our mortgage is up for renewal soon. I’m thinking of accessing $300K of equity and max out our TFSA and RRSP right away, then invest in taxable accounts. Taxable account will have a mix of index funds and dividend stocks. I have no interest in buying and managing real estate.

Is taking out $300K from the equity of our home to invest too much risk? (I know risk tolerance is very personal, but I am trying to make the most rational decision based on our stated goal)

Also, for interest to be deductible, can the funds be from a refinanced mortgage on a primary home? Or does it has to be from a LOC/HELOC?

Thanks in advance for any tips or advice.
172 replies
Deal Addict
Aug 31, 2008
1018 posts
192 upvotes
Thornhill
Why wait? With your situation I don't see how you can't get the million dollar home now by selling your current place and getting a bigger mortgage. With both your incomes it should more than cover it.
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Deal Addict
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Nov 30, 2005
1884 posts
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Ottawa, ON
Buy the place now, why are you waiting?
[OP]
Jr. Member
Aug 6, 2008
192 posts
253 upvotes
trky wrote: Why wait? With your situation I don't see how you can't get the million dollar home now by selling your current place and getting a bigger mortgage. With both your incomes it should more than cover it.
ZxExN wrote: Buy the place now, why are you waiting?
We haven't outgrown our current house yet. The thinking before the pandemic was that we would wait and save up for a nicer house. But with prices going up 30% a year, delaying is actually hurting us. Hence our dilemma.
Deal Addict
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Nov 30, 2005
1884 posts
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Ottawa, ON
With only a toddler and even if you have a 2nd child in a few years, chances are your current house will suit you just fine. Most people don't upgrade out of raw necessity but a desire for nicer, better things and more conveniences. Id rather just live in my dream house now if I can afford it rather than trying to time the housing market.
Last edited by ZxExN on Jul 26th, 2021 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Jr. Member
Mar 29, 2020
103 posts
108 upvotes
Ambroch wrote: We haven't outgrown our current house yet. The thinking before the pandemic was that we would wait and save up for a nicer house. But with prices going up 30% a year, delaying is actually hurting us. Hence our dilemma.
But isn't your current house going up in value as well?

Just make a decision...stay in current house or sell and buy the forever home.
You can't have your cake and eat it too.
Member
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Sep 18, 2016
488 posts
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Love these kind of posts. Making 200k a year and having all those "problems".
"Do not allow yourself to become resentful, deceitful or arrogant"
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Deal Expert
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Dec 11, 2005
19923 posts
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Move. There is more to this country than the GTA.
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Mar 10, 2018
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does it matter?
1Ogiku2 wrote: Love these kind of posts. Making 200k a year and having all those "problems".
LOL so true. I don't see problems.
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Deal Addict
Dec 22, 2007
1552 posts
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Mississauga
AppleDogwood wrote: But isn't your current house going up in value as well?

Just make a decision...stay in current house or sell and buy the forever home.
You can't have your cake and eat it too.
Thats where the problem is if your condo goes up 30% just as house well guess what you're now even more behind then before. Its great when its all going up and you own but its sucks from the other side. Granted the OP is in better shape than most but still has the same issues that lots do and that is being priced out.
Deal Addict
Dec 19, 2009
1720 posts
2356 upvotes
Ottawa
As expected, you’re getting the standard “what are you complaining about?!” responses based on your situation.

I’ll give my 2 cents because we’re actually in a very similar life stage to you (family and financial wise). Early 30’s couple that just upgraded to our “forever home” (although I hate that term as I have no idea if it will indeed be our home forever). Like you, we’re risk averse so taking on more debt wasn’t ideal (I didn’t sleep for 3 nights after we bought our new place...).

If it makes you feel any better we increased our mortgage amount by about $150k after we bought and sold. Our household income is about $70k less than yours and will be even less when my wife goes on maternity leave in Feb when baby #2 is due.

No one on here can make these decisions for you but since it sounds like you’re wired similarly to me...I’d say go for it. You are in a very good financial spot and even if there is a correction in RE then you would have been affected either way. If you buy and sell at the same time then you are just trading at the current market conditions. We likely overpaid for our new place as there were 15 offers...but we had 5 offers on our old place and it sold for a solid number (especially considering what we paid 5 years ago).

One other thing that pushed me over the edge to do it was that moving is stressful at the best of times...add more kids and I imagine it gets progressively more stressful/difficult to relocate. We bought, sold and moved all within 6 weeks! Rip the bandaid off. Grinning Face
Deal Addict
Jun 26, 2019
2034 posts
1772 upvotes
GTA
I really fail to see how this is an issue, and know lots of people who will have to take on mortgages easily twice the size of your theoretical one just to get into the low rise market.

You have over $500k in home equity, which will increase in your worst case scenario where your other "new" house goes up 50% in value in 3 years.

You also have a fair bit of cash and good retirement savings.

Even if your house goes up to $1.3mil, you're still probably only looking at like a $5-600k mortgage for your "forever home" which is super manageable.

If you borrow to go into riskier investments, with the objective of buying in 2-3 years, ie short term, you better be well aware of the risks. What if your short term gains are lower than expected, or I dare say your investments decrease in value in 2 years. If you're going to bet on the stock market to go up up up in the short term, because you're afraid the housing market is going to keep going crazy, why not cut all your risk out of the picture and just move up now? You'll have under a $500k mortgage probably, which is easy to handle.

I guess the most important question for you to figure out right now would be whats your monthly cash flow at the moment with minimal mortgage payments?

Also, care to explain why/how you are being priced out of investments? Are you just saying that valuations of stocks are high right now?
Ambroch wrote: Also, for interest to be deductible, can the funds be from a refinanced mortgage on a primary home? Or does it has to be from a LOC/HELOC?
I would consult a CPA on this matter Smiling Face With Open Mouth

But yes, it can, you should refer to the giant thread on the smith maneuver.
Deal Guru
Dec 5, 2006
14239 posts
9622 upvotes
Markham
SubjectivelyObjective wrote: I really fail to see how this is an issue, and know lots of people who will have to take on mortgages easily twice the size of your theoretical one just to get into the low rise market.

You have over $500k in home equity, which will increase in your worst case scenario where your other "new" house goes up 50% in value in 3 years.

You also have a fair bit of cash and good retirement savings.

Even if your house goes up to $1.3mil, you're still probably only looking at like a $5-600k mortgage for your "forever home" which is super manageable.

If you borrow to go into riskier investments, with the objective of buying in 2-3 years, ie short term, you better be well aware of the risks. What if your short term gains are lower than expected, or I dare say your investments decrease in value in 2 years. If you're going to bet on the stock market to go up up up in the short term, because you're afraid the housing market is going to keep going crazy, why not cut all your risk out of the picture and just move up now? You'll have under a $500k mortgage probably, which is easy to handle.

I guess the most important question for you to figure out right now would be whats your monthly cash flow at the moment with minimal mortgage payments?

Also, care to explain why/how you are being priced out of investments? Are you just saying that valuations of stocks are high right now?



I would consult a CPA on this matter Smiling Face With Open Mouth

But yes, it can, you should refer to the giant thread on the smith maneuver.
No issue financially. I think OP just doesn't like take large mortgage.

If household income is 200k, maximizing registered investment and own the house already, but still be priced out housing market, this real estate bubble will crash and self corrected
Member
Jun 6, 2014
311 posts
143 upvotes
Toronto, ON
smartie wrote: No issue financially. I think OP just doesn't like take large mortgage.

If household income is 200k, maximizing registered investment and own the house already, but still be priced out housing market, this real estate bubble will crash and self corrected
Agreed. There is a difference between being priced out of the market and not wanting to pay the market price for a house.
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User avatar
Mar 10, 2018
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does it matter?
CPA working at a non-profit. Gross $135K a year.
What?
And OP don't want to take large mortgage? I don't think it is true imo.
OP is not sure about what to do if this/his story is true.
only option either do it or don't.
And GTA is major part of economy, voting block, jobs, money, housing development and on and on and on.
"Laws for thee but not for me!" I will keep on jet-setting around the world. spend as much as I can. Enjoy as much as I can. Do as I do not as I say. I used to pay for my vacation until I met my hero.
Member
Oct 7, 2020
258 posts
194 upvotes
This reads like one of those profiles in the Saturday G&M. "We're better off than 97% of Canadians. Please explain why we're actually screwed".
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Dec 12, 2009
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I feel sorry for someone with such poor budgeting skills. Is food bank in the vocabulary? Enough said.
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