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Jun 28, 2007
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Gold bubble bursts

Golds performance was the worst in three decades - while this forum has been littered with housing crash threads the real bursting bubble has been in gold.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... e16145726/

I wonder what the gold bugs (particularly RFDs most voracious troll) have to say about this considering that he was admittedly extremely "long" in this asset class and it's producers. Perhaps golds poor performance was a "statistical mirage"? :facepalm:
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Oct 19, 2012
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You have to be foolish to think that gold would hit the bottom, this is just temporary then it will soar back to its natural place. You have to remember what George Soros said... gold's value should be at $3,000 an ounce.
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Dec 12, 2005
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Soros is pumping gold for the last 8 months....rich gets richer.....
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Feb 11, 2009
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Like any investment, Gold has its ups and downs.

If you look at the last 6 years, Gold has still doubled. It's only come off its all time highs.

At the same time, so has Apple, from its peak of $700, down to $400, now climbing again, or even Oil from $150+ a barrel in 08 to as low as $3X a barrel in 09 and back up to $100 a barrel
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Regardless of what the price of gold is, my view on it hasn't changed. It is a great store of value but a very poor investment. I do no like purchasing investments where the driving force is investor sentiment.
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deal_with_singh wrote: Like any investment, Gold has its ups and downs.

If you look at the last 6 years, Gold has still doubled. It's only come off its all time highs.

At the same time, so has Apple, from its peak of $700, down to $400, now climbing again, or even Oil from $150+ a barrel in 08 to as low as $3X a barrel in 09 and back up to $100 a barrel
Sure but after such a significant run-up in the past six years it's price has crashed by the biggest amount in 32 years - clearly this is no regular "up and down" activity indicative of most investments - it is a capitulation. Are gold bugs hanging on in the hopes that gold recovers this year (if so why) or will they throw in the towel realizing that the speculation that largely drove this asset up is now fading?
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Jul 1, 2007
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Gold's trading at a much fairer value today than it was in 2011. Buying it at almost $2000/oz was insanity. $1000/oz will be a much fairer valuation and also a much lower-risk entry point (an asset's risk is negatively correlated to its relative price).
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Jan 4, 2009
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Thanks for the hot tip. I haven't seen anything in news lately about gold.
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Feb 15, 2008
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gomyone wrote: Golds performance was the worst in three decades - while this forum has been littered with housing crash threads the real bursting bubble has been in gold.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... e16145726/

I wonder what the gold bugs (particularly RFDs most voracious troll) have to say about this considering that he was admittedly extremely "long" in this asset class and it's producers. Perhaps golds poor performance was a "statistical mirage"? :facepalm:
Nice try at a troll thread gomyone, but I think you might want to study the 1974-1976 period, along with the subsequent years before you get too carried away.

Bubbles are rarely characterized by a product that sells for less than its cost of production.

What occurred in the past year was little more than a cyclical correction. After all, nothing ever goes straight up in a straight line. If you look at the charts, most technology firms lost half their value in the early 1990s as well, before eventually going on to become a bubble.

BTW, as a Canadian, you should be enthusiastic about high gold prices in the future, as such has a decent chance of bailing out the Canadian RE market by providing a future demand driver and a source of economic activity. I'm not sure whether you're wearing your 'economist' hat today or not, but it is to your benefit, as a Canadian, to have high gold prices.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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GonePostal wrote: Regardless of what the price of gold is, my view on it hasn't changed. It is a great store of value but a very poor investment. I do no like purchasing investments where the driving force is investor sentiment.
Over the long term, its return is similar to that of bonds. So if you find gold to be a poor investment, then you probably don't want to own bonds either.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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Gammatron wrote: You have to be foolish to think that gold would hit the bottom, this is just temporary then it will soar back to its natural place. You have to remember what George Soros said... gold's value should be at $3,000 an ounce.
If you go by the Dow:Gold ratio, we're looking at more than $16,000/ounce today (although the Dow probably will end up falling). If you look at the ratio between outstanding US treasury debt and the price of gold, the price could be in excess of $20k. If you look at the fact that less than 1% of the world's investible assets are currently in gold/gold equities, and the historic peak has been around 20% -- that could mean gold at roughly 20X today's prices, so $24,000/ounce.

Intuitively, think of all the market capitalization that is currently ascribed to the financial system, migrating to the gold sector. We're talking about tens of trillions of dollars. Against mine supply which is extremely difficult to grow (see: Barrick's troubles in bringing Pascua-Lama online!).
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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gomyone wrote: Sure but after such a significant run-up in the past six years it's price has crashed by the biggest amount in 32 years - clearly this is no regular "up and down" activity indicative of most investments - it is a capitulation. Are gold bugs hanging on in the hopes that gold recovers this year (if so why) or will they throw in the towel realizing that the speculation that largely drove this asset up is now fading?
So what do you consider a regular investment?

Banking? Tech? Retail? Energy? They've all followed the same cycle. Why is Gold any different?

If you're falling for media, all the "analysts" are always doom and gloom when something starts to go down, and are always pumpers when it goes upwards

You can believe whatever you think, and definitely don't need to take my word for it, but see charts below. Just like during the recession, everyone was expecting things to keep falling, or when apple touched $700, everyone was saying its going to $1000. No one knows whats happening, and if you take anyones word for anything, you're listening to BS.


Here's a few charts to prove my point.

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So...What does the following look like to you?

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Yeah deal_with_singh, I have some money to invest in the next few weeks, and I find it rather awesome that I'm basically going to be able to use approximately 20% of my new funds to invest in this sector. Some incredible value out there. Your charts are absolutely right, the best time to buy historically is when everyone else is freaked out and they think the world is going to end.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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Jun 6, 2007
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STOCKS NEWS US-Traders flock to Barrick Gold call options
1 hour ago by Thomson Reuters
Real-time equity news [E U] U.S. stock market report 1111 ET 31Dec2013 Traders flock to Barrick Gold call options ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Shares of Barrick Gold Corp rose 2.16 percent to $17.48 on the New York Stock Exchange and options activity on the Canadian gold producer is tilted on the call side. Some investors appear to be positioning for further share price gains in the stock in 2014, said WhatsTrading.com options strategist Frederic Ruffy.

About 28,000 calls and 11,000 puts traded on Barrick as of 11:04 a.m. EST on Tuesday, according to Trade Alert. The January 2015 $35 strike calls are the most actives in the name, with more than 5,900 contracts changing hands, Trade Alert figures showed.

The weekly Jan. 24 $17-strike calls are also busy, trading 5,780 times.

The February $17 puts, February $20 calls, and February $18 strike calls are the next most actives in Barrick. The activity was accompanied by a rise in option implied volatility. The 30-day implied volatility in the options on the stock rose 4.5 percent to 38 percent, Ruffy said.

Reuters Messaging: doris.frankel.reuters.com@reuters.net
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$35, wow...
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...

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