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Gold/silver and miners...time to buy?

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  • Oct 11th, 2020 8:13 am
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[OP]
Member
Dec 13, 2014
375 posts
129 upvotes
Hampstead, QC

Gold/silver and miners...time to buy?

Been watching the sector for a longtime now and stepped in today. Bought some gold as well as SSO ( 7.11 ), PAA (9.31 ), FR ( 4.55 ).
I still think oil and oil shares can go quite a bit lower and stay there just like gold miners have done over past 3 years, but gold has actually outperformed the s@p since the rate cut became evident a month ago which to me is a clear sign that the bottom is in or close to it in gold and the miners.
Went good size as 25% of portfolio which is now 50% cash.
183 replies
Member
Dec 23, 2008
334 posts
60 upvotes
Toronto
leflower wrote: Been watching the sector for a longtime now and stepped in today. Bought some gold as well as SSO ( 7.11 ), PAA (9.31 ), FR ( 4.55 ).
I still think oil and oil shares can go quite a bit lower and stay there just like gold miners have done over past 3 years, but gold has actually outperformed the s@p since the rate cut became evident a month ago which to me is a clear sign that the bottom is in or close to it in gold and the miners.
Went good size as 25% of portfolio which is now 50% cash.

I'd like to agree with you, but Gold is really shaky right now. I'm trying to liquidate my positions as soon as possible.
[OP]
Member
Dec 13, 2014
375 posts
129 upvotes
Hampstead, QC
wow...well I probably bought yur gold and your shares then. Im short a few oil names past 10 months, now long gold and a few miners, bonds and a lot of cash ( 50% )
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5444 posts
1866 upvotes
Gold is/was inflation hedge. Common thinking is more QE translate to higher inflation expectations. This normally translates into bullish fundamentals for gold. But gold doesn't earn interest nor produces any income. That we know...

Now, what do we have? FED starts to tighten (if it does, will know in 2 days). ECB/BOJ very dovish, Chinese devaluing currency and dumping commodities at record pace depressing prices and exporting deflation worldwide.
Gold is caught between a rock and a hard place. The cost to extract gold is around the price it sells for now, and Dec is usually seasonally strong period. If there is a risk of Syria escalation, gold will rise.

Personally, I am accumulating physical when I can... small.
[OP]
Member
Dec 13, 2014
375 posts
129 upvotes
Hampstead, QC
accumulating gold physical is smart, but not really an investment, as it wont lose value longterm... I sold some physical my grandmother gave me many years ago. Got 10k CAD for it. She told me she payed about 400 dollars for it 40 years ago. Miners and the GLD etc is what I am talking about.
Jr. Member
Jul 29, 2010
144 posts
28 upvotes
ottawa
if gold is a hedge for inflation, and right now all signs point to deflation, then right now is a poor time to buy gold.

The hedge for deflation is cash. preferably one that is not linked to a deflating commodity in the case of Canadian dollars and oil.
[OP]
Member
Dec 13, 2014
375 posts
129 upvotes
Hampstead, QC
johndenver wrote: if gold is a hedge for inflation, and right now all signs point to deflation, then right now is a poor time to buy gold.

The hedge for deflation is cash. preferably one that is not linked to a deflating commodity in the case of Canadian dollars and oil.
You are correct on deflation...but gold outperforms equities in during inflation and deflation. Thats why I am actually long cash right now in USD and have been for a while. Sold my bond fund recently and bought some gold and gold equities ( 25% )
I am not in the camp that s&p will be up 10% next year...I think it will be flat to down ( no crash )...while Canada will continue to suffer with weak oil unfortunately.
[OP]
Member
Dec 13, 2014
375 posts
129 upvotes
Hampstead, QC
leflower wrote: Been watching the sector for a longtime now and stepped in today. Bought some gold as well as SSO ( 7.11 ), PAA (9.31 ), FR ( 4.55 ).
I still think oil and oil shares can go quite a bit lower and stay there just like gold miners have done over past 3 years, but gold has actually outperformed the s@p since the rate cut became evident a month ago which to me is a clear sign that the bottom is in or close to it in gold and the miners.
Went good size as 25% of portfolio which is now 50% cash.
...so far so good on the trade...miners are leading gold this past week so look for a big move in the metals in the new year.
I believe these 3 stocks and other good names will at least double this year and potentially up 300-1000% within 3 years.
Jr. Member
Apr 15, 2010
108 posts
75 upvotes
Is it time to stockpile gold and silver bullions now that the 4th quarter is approaching?

It seems inevitable that the US will default on their debt to China, and if China is smart , they will stop buying US reserves before the year is out, which threatens the US economy and will make the US dollar crash.
US keeps printing greenbacks at a record pace. Maybe I'm being paranoid but It is an election year in the US and historically a crisis looms when a new president is about to be sworn in (remember the dot com bubble and the housing bubble to name the most recent).
I say Gold and Silver prices will shoot up by the end of September, beginning of October 2016. Any thoughts?
Jr. Member
Apr 15, 2010
108 posts
75 upvotes
rapashoo wrote: I have been averaging down on my XGD
So no one thinks the US economy is doomed except me, considering how much money they are printing, how much they consume, how little they produce and there national debt?
Sr. Member
Feb 1, 2015
611 posts
136 upvotes
MB
For the chartists, I find the big picture snapshot on Gold Futures really interesting.

a. Long-term resistance identified by the downtrend line in orange, back from the 2010 high.
b. Strong support at approx 1325.

Image
Banned
Jun 15, 2012
2837 posts
1003 upvotes
Saskatoon
bougie_44 wrote:
rapashoo wrote: I have been averaging down on my XGD
So no one thinks the US economy is doomed except me, considering how much money they are printing, how much they consume, how little they produce and there national debt?
If that is of any help.
I agree with you .
Question not IF but rather when. And how to prepare.
Tangible assets most likely.
No need to type thank you; upvote=thanks.
Buffett, investors are focusing “not on what an asset will produce but rather on what the next fellow will pay for it.”

“Because gold is honest money it is disliked by dishonest men.” – R. Paul
Deal Addict
Sep 20, 2014
1152 posts
373 upvotes
Calgary, AB
bougie_44 wrote:
rapashoo wrote: I have been averaging down on my XGD
So no one thinks the US economy is doomed except me, considering how much money they are printing, how much they consume, how little they produce and there national debt?
Since you have started, would you like to share some details about that? Are you implying that the U.S. a) produces very little and b) consumes very much and will therefore, borrow its way to a "debt ridden grave"?

Before you do, however, remember that in this day and age, the production of physical commodities does not equate to the wealth being produced by a nation. That was true once, not today.

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