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Gold/silver and miners...time to buy?

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  • Mar 28th, 2024 4:36 pm
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Deal Addict
Dec 3, 2014
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thealpevin wrote: the new gold = bitcoin, buy that!
Bitcoin is great too! Buy things that can’t be replicated with the snap of a finger. Bitcoin and gold have a lot in common. Gold may be more tangible, but there’s at least a scarcity to either one. The system can’t be flooded with a ton more to dilute what you worked hard to earn.
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PaddyM77101 wrote: Im going to give them a few more months but I’m definitely starting to lose some conviction about gold miners from here I don’t know if crypto is just stealing all of gold’s thunder but gold and silver have been the dogs of my portfolio the last few months. I’m currently 10% gold, 5% silver and 5% BM if anything I’d move 5% gold to BMs.
A recent G&M article "Gold mining insiders cash in on surging prices in 2020"
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Jun 2, 2020
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MrMom wrote: A recent G&M article "Gold mining insiders cash in on surging prices in 2020"
Well most of the companies listed are at or near ATHs so it certainly makes a lot of sense why people would take profits. I knew getting in that the run in gold from 1600 to 1900 is much more straightforward than the run from 1900 to 2200. I was reading somewhere that there has been a bunch of insider buying in this space too though - something the article doesn’t touch on as much.
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Sr. Member
Oct 16, 2008
997 posts
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Anyone here looking to buy gold as a inflation hedge? Why isn't it going any higher?
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May 11, 2014
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Just keep in mind, my opinion as I know there are very knowledgeable people here that would disagree, but I believe gold is a poor inflation hedge.

Gold I find moves more on crowd-based hype rather than true concerns on inflation or currency concerns. Sure, governments are issuing currency, but this assumes that the central bank is the one issuing the most currency in an economy. But when most of the currency in circulation is commercial banking and fractional reserve, in times such as this where people are concerned about their futures, rather than spend money, we are seeing people pay off their debts and save, although some people are increasing debt of late with further declines in interest rates. Besides, gold went from 1500 in Nov 2019 to 2000ish in the 2020s, are we to really say that prices of items went up 33%? It doesn't have to be perfect, but a true inflation hedge should at least generally keep up with the inflation rate. Additionally, many people are subscribing to utilizing cryptocurrencies as the new inflation hedge which I believe is dampening the demand for precious metals.

I think gold already shot up too much to expect it to shoot up again. Of course if the economy has more bailouts such as $2000 cheques from Biden and people get further concerns about people speculating on GME options and perhaps loss in confidence with cryptocurrency (as we see the sell off of late), you might see another swing in gold upward.

For me, gold doesn't have a place in my portfolio. The only time I owned a gold stock was a trade on Terranga Gold, but that was a company when gold was low price. The company at the time had zero debt, and still profitable. I sold way too early (of course :P) but I still made money. My basis of owning companies should be based on their profitability and management. Be careful to relate that to the price of the commodity they sell. Similar to electric cars, there are many new players. Just because it sounds promising, doesn't mean the company is managed well. We have seen this with oil companies after the bust, as well as weed companies as well There will no doubtly be winners and losers. If you choose a gold company, choose one based on their earnings and management, or not if you are trading on momentum.

(note: this is not an endorsement to buy Terranga Gold. I have no clue about their position at the moment, although I am sure the increased price of gold and solid balance sheet has led to their current price success).
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Oct 16, 2008
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xgbsSS wrote: Just keep in mind, my opinion as I know there are very knowledgeable people here that would disagree, but I believe gold is a poor inflation hedge.

Gold I find moves more on crowd-based hype rather than true concerns on inflation or currency concerns. Sure, governments are issuing currency, but this assumes that the central bank is the one issuing the most currency in an economy. But when most of the currency in circulation is commercial banking and fractional reserve, in times such as this where people are concerned about their futures, rather than spend money, we are seeing people pay off their debts and save, although some people are increasing debt of late with further declines in interest rates. Besides, gold went from 1500 in Nov 2019 to 2000ish in the 2020s, are we to really say that prices of items went up 33%? It doesn't have to be perfect, but a true inflation hedge should at least generally keep up with the inflation rate. Additionally, many people are subscribing to utilizing cryptocurrencies as the new inflation hedge which I believe is dampening the demand for precious metals.

I think gold already shot up too much to expect it to shoot up again. Of course if the economy has more bailouts such as $2000 cheques from Biden and people get further concerns about people speculating on GME options and perhaps loss in confidence with cryptocurrency (as we see the sell off of late), you might see another swing in gold upward.

For me, gold doesn't have a place in my portfolio. The only time I owned a gold stock was a trade on Terranga Gold, but that was a company when gold was low price. The company at the time had zero debt, and still profitable. I sold way too early (of course :P) but I still made money. My basis of owning companies should be based on their profitability and management. Be careful to relate that to the price of the commodity they sell. Similar to electric cars, there are many new players. Just because it sounds promising, doesn't mean the company is managed well. We have seen this with oil companies after the bust, as well as weed companies as well There will no doubtly be winners and losers. If you choose a gold company, choose one based on their earnings and management, or not if you are trading on momentum.

(note: this is not an endorsement to buy Terranga Gold. I have no clue about their position at the moment, although I am sure the increased price of gold and solid balance sheet has led to their current price success).
Interesting thoughts... My only basis is just through academia where you're taught of Gold as a typical inflation hedge, but perhaps these are all outdated given current environment. With all these bailouts and stimulus, but only thought was that increase in money supply would increase inflation and that it'd be good to hedge against it (via gold). But it was just odd that even with so much stimulus to date, you don't really see gold moving all that much. Perhaps crypto really is indeed the new gold as a potential hedge.

Price of gold movement always has been a little random to me... gotta be very patient...
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Dec 26, 2008
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Well keep in mind it’s unfair to say that gold hasn’t run up recently. It has run up from the 1500’s to the 1900’s with some pullback to the 1800s. Still were talking about a 30 % rise in price in about a years time. That’s huge.

And that’s just based on futures prices. The street price of physical gold has had an even more dramatic rise. Try buying physical coins or ingots at spot rate prices - no way. Physical dealers don’t even have the supply in some cases.

Keep in mind that though there has been a huge amount of money printed in response to Covid, it’s impact on inflation (one of golds main drivers) has been mitigated by massive worldwide job losses and well, illness and deaths.
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Pho6 wrote: Interesting thoughts... My only basis is just through academia where you're taught of Gold as a typical inflation hedge, but perhaps these are all outdated given current environment. With all these bailouts and stimulus, but only thought was that increase in money supply would increase inflation and that it'd be good to hedge against it (via gold). But it was just odd that even with so much stimulus to date, you don't really see gold moving all that much. Perhaps crypto really is indeed the new gold as a potential hedge.

Price of gold movement always has been a little random to me... gotta be very patient...
Modern academic and economics don't say gold is an inflation hedge, rather there are economic theories that say it can be. Very different. It worked as a control if you were to have currencies based on gold standard, but that is because you are legislating gold has value. With modern economic and monetary systems and controls in place, the place of gold has waned overtime as confidence in modern systems has been established. Really the only demand that has increased is jewelry and cultural demand with population growth and higher incomes where it is prized.

Keep in mind, I am not saying gold can't be worth a lot or go up. In fact, as can be seen, you can utilize gold in trades and make good money especially when there is concern about the economy. But regarding it as an inflation hedge, I find the performance is poor. 80-to early 90s saw gold stagnate for a very long time. It again started increasing during the commodity super-cycle and peak during the mortgage crisis, only to crash and stagnate again. To me, that is a poor cushion. For instance 80-to early 90s were times of high inflation. Commodity super-cycle, the economy was generally doing very well other than oil and gas prices being too high. The 2010s onward, the stock market did extremely well, so inflation picked up, yet gold just stagnated. You could argue bonds worked better despite being funded by the currency you are trying to deflect risk from.
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Gold has historically performed well during periods of fiat debasement and political risk.

I see it more as defensive hedge that's non-correlated to equity-linked products and bonds.
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I'd rather go along woth r/wallstreetbets than put a penny along side Schiff
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MrMom wrote: I'd rather go along woth r/wallstreetbets than put a penny along side Schiff
Is what Schiff said in that tweet wrong?
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IrwinW wrote: Is what Schiff said in that tweet wrong?
Rosenberg said to buy pipelines. That doesn't erase their decades long history of destoying wealth.

Having said that, I have pulled up FR/AG to watch.
Last edited by MrMom on Jan 28th, 2021 10:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Jun 28, 2018
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ayellowbanana wrote: Silver is being talked about in wsb
I've been long silver via phyzzzz. Sitting on my nice little Scotia Mocatta 10oz bar for over 9 years. Contributing to the cause and underwater. Picked up some SLV for the WSB.
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johnnychi wrote: I've been long silver via phyzzzz. Sitting on my nice little Scotia Mocatta 10oz bar for over 9 years. Contributing to the cause and underwater. Picked up some SLV for the WSB.
The Bass brothers thank you.
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MrMom wrote: Rosenberg said to buy pipelines. That doesn't erase their decades long history of destoying wealth.
Only liars get it right 100% of the time.

You seem to have a problem with pretty well everyone I link to: Berman, Nutall, Schiff ... Just wait 'till I start posting stuff from The Maverick of Wall Street :)

Have a good day and don't let the WuFlu cabin fever get to you!

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