I just came back to this thread to say good call on seasonality and calling the pullback in Feb. My entry was obviously not great on AEM. I added a 1/4 more to my starter position in AEM today. Hopefully the cash flow estimates prove accurate and this name rebounds. Are you considering buying/adding to your miners with the pullbacks?DealRNothing wrote: ↑ I don't anticipate owning KL now as growth projects seem behind them suggesting a more muted 2021. The SP seems to be reflecting this. I wouldn't pay too much attention to current valuations as '21 growth profiles (Cashflow) seem to be better for AEM (+40% estimates) / NGT (+20%) / KL (+3%)_Of course, assuming Gold price range $1,800-$2,000 . Having said this my "closest" current interest would be NGT (NEM) with a modeled "add" of $51>$55 USD. I've pegged AEM add/buy range (CAD) $69>$78 (for myself).
I don't anticipate any immediate adds as I do believe Gold (miners SP's) may have a pause / pullback during Feb.
Gold/silver and miners...time to buy?
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- Capt.
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- jerryhung
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Wow at the little gold miner positions I have and how they have fallen hard, and I recalled Gold at $2000 USD - LOL
Guess I'm stuck with K, ABX, KL
Guess I'm stuck with K, ABX, KL
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- IrwinW
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I believe that Gold is a lot closer to the bottom than the top; that's why I keep adding in small tranches.
As Goldfinger pointed out:
I should also note that gold spent a good deal of time trading around the $US1700 level during the first half of 2020, before launching above US$2,000 in a summer sprint higher. $1,700 is a reasonable technical support level and also measures nearly 20% from the summer all-time high at $2,089.
Also, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Gold run from March 2020 to August 2020 comes in at $1,694.
Chart source: https://schrts.co/VxVKFRiW
- DealRNothing
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@Capt. Thanks for the shout out. My call was based on a modest change to bond rates and seasonal demand conclusion, however, I was not expecting a significant break in Gold Spot below $1,760 during Feb (and consequently abrupt Bond yield spikes). If we would have been able to close the month >$1,755, I would have added in the ranges I suggested (and we are in) with AEM / NEM / NGT. As you know, Spot hit below $1,720 today and did finish off the bottom but not enough to make me add to names.Capt. wrote: ↑ I just came back to this thread to say good call on seasonality and calling the pullback in Feb. My entry was obviously not great on AEM. I added a 1/4 more to my starter position in AEM today. Hopefully the cash flow estimates prove accurate and this name rebounds. Are you considering buying/adding to your miners with the pullbacks?
Because near term "support" has broken, I do not anticipate adding to Gold positions in the next while. $1,700 is the next support to be watchful of (along with Bond rates, of course) and I may look to adding if that level holds. Otherwise, we could be looking at significant retracement to the $1,575 range. A confirmed range Sub $1,700, I will definitely be taking my miner(s) profits.
My base case as of today, is that $1,700 can hold, and I will look at stock valuations at that time for an appropriate add. Without Gold firming up, analysts will have to revise targets down. Most of my estimates (I think several analysts too) are based on a $1,800 average minimum.
Additionally, AEM reported a much weaker quarter than expected which didn't help.
Continued GL
- dotsandpixels
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My bags are really heavy today. Wish they were full of gold instead of miners.
What is going on that gold price is no longer inverse to the indexes? And it's not like money flowed into bitcoin either.
Today's drop is an account shocker. I may finally have to average down.
What is going on that gold price is no longer inverse to the indexes? And it's not like money flowed into bitcoin either.
Today's drop is an account shocker. I may finally have to average down.
- IrwinW
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From someone a lot smarter than I.dotsandpixels wrote: ↑ What is going on that gold price is no longer inverse to the indexes?
KEReport near bottom of page:
On February 26, 2021 at 5:17 pm,
RICHARD/DOC says:
Oz, here’s the problem—-you have rates moving up and they probably have farther to go. You put that with a strengthening dollar and a falling conventional market and you have a general sell off of everything. Copper and the CRB are also in the process of reversing. The fact I have been negative on gold for weeks is that we peaked out in August of last year and if you look ----
- DealRNothing
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dotsandpixels wrote: ↑My bags are really heavy today. Wish they were full of gold instead of miners.
What is going on that gold price is no longer inverse to the indexes? And it's not like money flowed into bitcoin either.
Today's drop is an account shocker. I may finally have to average down.
Think you're giving too much credit to "experts" because they run a podcast or twitter account, lol. From what I see, you draw from lots of DD yourself...At the end of the day, we are ALL guessing what's going on and why and trying to invest accordingly.
I will say your post hits the main reason for Gold's downdraft in Feb. Bond rates went up much too quickly and taking a look at the 5Y & 10Y US Issues for just the month of February:
US 5Y_+70% (0.43%>0.73%) / US 10Y_+32% (1.07%>1.41%). IR's can compete with Gold when / if rates can lift off substantially. The question at this point, is if this is another test of the US Fed, or if Bond traders are going to take the momentum farther. I posted on a "Fixed Income" thread about the showdown between Bond traders and the Fed now. I think the Fed will begin to step in (in a more aggressive way) if the US 10Y goes 2%+ (at least that's my theory). The Fed quandary, however, is they will have to produce issues at much higher rate(s) than they have been doing to compete (translation = worsening debt / deficit).
Fixed Income discussion
What was clear during Feb (especially last week) is Foreign investment was/is looking for higher yields and pushed the $USD higher in the process (using $USD to buy US Treasuries). Both negatives for Gold (in the short term).
For Gold investors, outside of currency & bond moves, Bitcoin is becoming a factor in the "store of value" realm. Doesn't make for great jewelry, lol, but it does seem Institutions are starting to legitimize. I'm not a fan yet, as it just seems another proxy to the $USD with no historic basis for valuation. I'm staying away from that trade at least for now.
- IrwinW
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@DealRNothing - You should probably put me on "Ignore" if what I post bothers you. I don't see any reason why I should stop referencing sources that I find useful and informative. In the case of RICHARD/DOC, I've been following what he has to say for at least a decade. He has nothing to sell, just posts to help others along. He isn't always right, no one is, in fact I find him to be a bit too cautious and so I stick with my plan of averaging in to PMs in small amounts even though he and others think the sector will disappoint until Q4 2021.
If I find people out there who not only have more knowledge than I, but have the ability to convey that knowledge more fluently than I could, why shouldn't that knowledge be passed along?
If I find people out there who not only have more knowledge than I, but have the ability to convey that knowledge more fluently than I could, why shouldn't that knowledge be passed along?
- DealRNothing
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@IrwinW Whoa, Irwin... you totally MISINTERPRETED my response to you. I wasn't discrediting your source, post, or you... Frankly I was giving you a compliment in doing the DD you do in among others on RFD. My point is WE are ALL ("pros" and "novices" alike) trying to read the tea leaves of the markets. Your posts have indicated to me you do as much research as many "pros" (with multiple podcasts or twitter accounts) and your own knowledge shouldn't be discredited or diminished.IrwinW wrote: ↑ @DealRNothing - You should probably put me on "Ignore" if what I post bothers you. I don't see any reason why I should stop referencing sources that I find useful and informative. In the case of RICHARD/DOC, I've been following what he has to say for at least a decade. He has nothing to sell, just posts to help others along. He isn't always right, no one is, in fact I find him to be a bit too cautious and so I stick with my plan of averaging in to PMs in small amounts even though he and others think the sector will disappoint until Q4 2021.
If I find people out there who not only have more knowledge than I, but have the ability to convey that knowledge more fluently than I could, why shouldn't that knowledge be passed along?
Sorry, you misinterpreted my response... Absolutely no slam intended. Sorry if it came off that way
Last edited by DealRNothing on Feb 27th, 2021 4:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- dotsandpixels
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Good post, I read the thread you posted thoroughly and I thank you for the introduction.
We all can agree that the foreseeable future of gold is dim.
Since I don't need the funds and I refuse to sell the bags for a loss unless I can find another definitive profitable source (unlikely right now in this spooked market), I will wait for the turnaround that will come eventually. In the meantime I will wait for the bottom, and average down when it seems safe again.
- PaddyM77101
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I think this bleeds as long as real rates are rising.
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Nothing is as important as we think it is while we are thinking about it
- jenneth
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Fed is just going to start buying up treasury bonds or have the banks do it for them. They can't afford to let it "rise." I read rumours that they just "printed" trillions of dollars over Thursday....and now the bond rates are dropping.PaddyM77101 wrote: ↑ I think this bleeds as long as real rates are rising.
lmao...this is just comical.
I am gonna go all-in on gold once the stimulus passes the senate and wait for the bus to arrive. 500% increase in gold by the end of the year. lol jk but close to it.
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- PaddyM77101
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I think it’s a good bet too. Holding some jr miners, gdx, xgd and a few calls (SGOL, GOLD, AUY). So far I’ve been very wrong.jenneth wrote: ↑ Fed is just going to start buying up treasury bonds or have the banks do it for them. They can't afford to let it "rise." I read rumours that they just "printed" trillions of dollars over Thursday....and now the bond rates are dropping.
lmao...this is just comical.
I am gonna go all-in on gold once the stimulus passes the senate and wait for the bus to arrive. 500% increase in gold by the end of the year. lol jk but close to it.
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- DealRNothing
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Thursday's US Treasury 7Y auction went over like a lead balloon. Back to my original point... Rates have to be higher for treasuries to be salable.jenneth wrote: ↑ Fed is just going to start buying up treasury bonds or have the banks do it for them. They can't afford to let it "rise." I read rumours that they just "printed" trillions of dollars over Thursday....and now the bond rates are dropping.
lmao...this is just comical.
I am gonna go all-in on gold once the stimulus passes the senate and wait for the bus to arrive. 500% increase in gold by the end of the year. lol jk but close to it.
"The Fed quandary, however, is they will have to produce issues at much higher rate(s) than they have been doing to compete (translation = worsening debt / deficit)."
7Y Treasury Auction Goes Poorly_Thur_Feb 25
- asys71
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- Feb 21, 2017
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Gave up on gold early 2017. Really saw no point in holding it anymore. Every single thing has doubled/tripled in price last ten years but gold has been stuck in mud.dotsandpixels wrote: ↑ My bags are really heavy today. Wish they were full of gold instead of miners.
What is going on that gold price is no longer inverse to the indexes? And it's not like money flowed into bitcoin either.
Today's drop is an account shocker. I may finally have to average down.
- DealRNothing
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Guess it really depends where one was adding/buying... I started adding to miners late 2018-early '19 and those are a double. Not bitcoin returns but then I wouldn't have taken positions in bitcoin back then given it's infancy. In fact still not, but to each is own.
- asys71
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- Feb 21, 2017
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Youre right. I didnt own miners, just gold.DealRNothing wrote: ↑ Guess it really depends where one was adding/buying... I started adding to miners late 2018-early '19 and those are a double. Not bitcoin returns but then I wouldn't have taken positions in bitcoin back then given it's infancy. In fact still not, but to each is own.
And Its not even Bitcoin, you literally couldnt go wrong last ten years, everything at least doubled. Even the US total bond market had a 40% return.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/28/stock-m ... -news.htmlDealRNothing wrote: ↑ Thursday's US Treasury 7Y auction went over like a lead balloon. Back to my original point... Rates have to be higher for treasuries to be salable.
"The Fed quandary, however, is they will have to produce issues at much higher rate(s) than they have been doing to compete (translation = worsening debt / deficit)."
7Y Treasury Auction Goes Poorly_Thur_Feb 25
Fed buying down treasury bonds.
Gold coming back hard baby.
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- dotsandpixels
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just not today. gold down again
- jenneth
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The current story they are going with right now is, "American industrial output is higher than expected, so they don't expect inflation".dotsandpixels wrote: ↑ just not today. gold down again
I kind of laugh at that lol.
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