Real Estate

Is this good time to buy real estate in Toronto/GTA?

  • Last Updated:
  • Feb 25th, 2019 3:47 pm
[OP]
Jr. Member
Nov 14, 2018
119 posts
21 upvotes

Is this good time to buy real estate in Toronto/GTA?

I am still saving my 20% down payment.

Still about 10 months away.

Question is looking at current sluggish housing market. Should I act now and buy or wait for my 20% down payment to complete?
128 replies
Deal Addict
Apr 14, 2017
1967 posts
612 upvotes
DT Calgary
What do you plan on buying and where?
Sr. Member
Jul 10, 2018
513 posts
483 upvotes
Condos are still on fire, so there are no deals to be had, however the detached market is retreating back to 2016 prices (overall - there are still plenty of pockets that are very hot that sell quickly for over-asking). Under normal conditions, I would never recommend timing the market, but 10 months from now when you're ready to buy, detached prices may have returned to 2015 or early 2016 prices - right before they skyrocketed caused by exuberance and foreign money. That would be an ideal time to buy a detached property because property values were continuing their slow steady incline in 2015, which was normal and expected. Prices could tank further but I wouldn't bank on it nor would I market time hoping to buy at the bottom. Even if you buy at 2015 prices, the detached market could be sluggish for years going forward but time eventually resolves that.

A real estate blog has shown a 4 year pattern of Vancouver and Toronto markets moving in tandem with a 9 month time shift. Likewise, the head of CIBC capital markets said the same but his timeline was 14 months difference. If these patterns hold, you'll be in a good position to buy detached in 10 months when you've saved enough.
Deal Addict
Jul 21, 2008
1348 posts
1320 upvotes
GTA
Another one of these threads...

My thought process is this:

1) Do I intend on living in it for at least 5 years? If YES, BUY.

A lot can happen in 10 months. I wouldn't try to time anything.
[OP]
Jr. Member
Nov 14, 2018
119 posts
21 upvotes
FreshCo wrote: What do you plan on buying and where?
Planning on semi detached or detached. I have a 4 year old. Don't want to raise him in a condo.

Dont have a neighborhood in mind.
We need to commute down town so thats that.
[OP]
Jr. Member
Nov 14, 2018
119 posts
21 upvotes
Slono wrote: Another one of these threads...

My thought process is this:

1) Do I intend on living in it for at least 5 years? If YES, BUY.

A lot can happen in 10 months. I wouldn't try to time anything.
I do intend to stay, it will be my first home.

I created this thread as I couldn't find any thread talking about GTA house pricing.

Thank you for your response.
Sr. Member
Jul 10, 2018
513 posts
483 upvotes
Here are the overall detached market stats: https://housesigma.com/web/en/market?mu ... use_type=D.

As you can see, YOY decrease of almost 7%. The detached golden goose was slaughtered in mid 2017 and has since plunged into "Balanced" territory and is now literally on the cusp of "Buyer's Market" territory. The continuation of this trajectory seems inevitable since sales remain low and inventory is creeping up to normal volumes. This is also happening not only in Vancouver but in worldwide major markets.

If you're looking to buy a condo, demand is high. Buy, cross your fingers, hold for a long time, and build equity.

Edit: just read your posts above. In 10 months when you're ready to buy, I would recommend buying.
Deal Addict
Apr 14, 2017
1967 posts
612 upvotes
DT Calgary
pradstoronto wrote: Planning on semi detached or detached. I have a 4 year old. Don't want to raise him in a condo.

Dont have a neighborhood in mind.
We need to commute down town so thats that.
It honestly comes down to your income and savings. I’d cross off Toronto itself, except for a few pockets in Scarborough. Look at Mississauga for something a little more reasonable.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 9, 2009
9649 posts
7259 upvotes
Arnold Schwarzengger bought a 6 unit apartment complex in the 1970s (his bodybuilding years) for $245,000 in Santa Monica, California.. probably worth 3-5 mil today if he kept it.

What does that have to do with anything? he bought during a crazy inflation time of the 70s and could have easily say "oooo too risky better not" but long term doesnt matter you will be ahead.

Buy a house and enjoy raising your 4 year old. Rates are all but done raising for the time being. Banks in fact lowered rates recently... go buy... nows the time where you can go in and buy and even do inspection... do you want to wait for bidding wars on every house again!?!?

Enjoy and buy :)
Deal Addict
Apr 14, 2017
1967 posts
612 upvotes
DT Calgary
Sanyo wrote: Arnold Schwarzengger bought a 6 unit apartment complex in the 1970s (his bodybuilding years) for $245,000 in Santa Monica, California.. probably worth 3-5 mil today if he kept it.

What does that have to do with anything? he bought during a crazy inflation time of the 70s and could have easily say "oooo too risky better not" but long term doesnt matter you will be ahead.

Buy a house and enjoy raising your 4 year old. Rates are all but done raising for the time being. Banks in fact lowered rates recently... go buy... nows the time where you can go in and buy and even do inspection... do you want to wait for bidding wars on every house again!?!?

Enjoy and buy :)
Talk about hyperbolic. When was the there a time where every listing had bidding wars? Right now probably is a good time for detached, but I can’t imagine 10 months would be much different either.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 9, 2009
9649 posts
7259 upvotes
FreshCo wrote: Talk about hyperbolic. When was the there a time where every listing had bidding wars? Right now probably is a good time for detached, but I can’t imagine 10 months would be much different either.
i rub on a genie to tell me the future...
Member
Dec 23, 2012
293 posts
282 upvotes
RICHMOND HILL
FreshCo wrote: Talk about hyperbolic. When was the there a time where every listing had bidding wars? Right now probably is a good time for detached, but I can’t imagine 10 months would be much different either.
I'm buying a condo in DT TO right now and 90% of listings I look at have multiple offers. My current home I had to beat 5 other offers (and I lost similar bidding wars on 5 or 6 other houses in a 6 month period before that), and this was in KW in 2017.
Deal Addict
Dec 30, 2012
1098 posts
1147 upvotes
Toronto
Slono wrote: Another one of these threads...

My thought process is this:

1) Do I intend on living in it for at least 5 years? If YES, BUY.

A lot can happen in 10 months. I wouldn't try to time anything.
5 years? I'd say 10-15 years. In 5 years the GTA market will probably be bottoming out.
Deal Addict
Dec 30, 2012
1098 posts
1147 upvotes
Toronto
Mosho1 wrote: I'm buying a condo in DT TO right now and 90% of listings I look at have multiple offers. My current home I had to beat 5 other offers (and I lost similar bidding wars on 5 or 6 other houses in a 6 month period before that), and this was in KW in 2017.
Well that's not surprising since you bought a house in southern Ontario in 2017, the top of the bubble for houses (though not condos).
Member
Dec 23, 2012
293 posts
282 upvotes
RICHMOND HILL
civiclease wrote: Well that's not surprising since you bought a house in southern Ontario in 2017, the top of the bubble for houses (though not condos).
It is naive to think every place in southern ontario is the same. It was indeed the top of the market in the GTA but in KW it was a very small dip and prices have gone back up since. It is totally beside the point though, you're just being spiteful (which is totally ok if it makes you feel better, you do you).

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