Real Estate

Good time to buy in Vancouver Downtown?

  • Last Updated:
  • Jan 11th, 2020 12:15 am
[OP]
Banned
Nov 12, 2019
21 posts
10 upvotes

Good time to buy in Vancouver Downtown?

I know no one knows answer to this... but will it go down more?

I have seen some trends lately and a lot of inventories are sold. but that doesn't mean price will go up again.









UPDATE - Lots of units added after 1/7/20
Last edited by Pulpssc on Jan 8th, 2020 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
26 replies
Member
Nov 25, 2009
367 posts
131 upvotes
Terrace
This could either be a dead cat bounce or the bottom, nobody knows.

The current market conditions is enough to get me to put something down on a presale recently though...
Sr. Member
Jul 4, 2017
502 posts
102 upvotes
lawonga wrote: This could either be a dead cat bounce or the bottom, nobody knows.

The current market conditions is enough to get me to put something down on a presale recently though...
Where do you find information on presales in Vancouver? Do you use a realtor?
Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2007
6249 posts
2497 upvotes
One Vancouver realtor who watches the condo market closely says that something like 40,000-50,000 NEW units will be coming online very soon. This means that the supply will be flooded and might be indicative of where prices are headed. Personally, unless it's an emergency, I might wait and see how prices play out. You could end up saving yourself a *@!(load of money.
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2016
1750 posts
801 upvotes
choclover wrote: One Vancouver realtor who watches the condo market closely says that something like 40,000-50,000 NEW units will be coming online very soon. This means that the supply will be flooded and might be indicative of where prices are headed. Personally, unless it's an emergency, I might wait and see how prices play out. You could end up saving yourself a *@!(load of money.
The new units coming on market are tiny. The total number of sqft coming online is not that huge, and the total job numbers in Vancouver are still good.
Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2007
6249 posts
2497 upvotes
BlueSolstice wrote: The new units coming on market are tiny. The total number of sqft coming online is not that huge, and the total job numbers in Vancouver are still good.
Are you saying that the condo market is not going to fall further?
[OP]
Banned
Nov 12, 2019
21 posts
10 upvotes
choclover wrote: One Vancouver realtor who watches the condo market closely says that something like 40,000-50,000 NEW units will be coming online very soon. This means that the supply will be flooded and might be indicative of where prices are headed. Personally, unless it's an emergency, I might wait and see how prices play out. You could end up saving yourself a *@!(load of money.
Really?

I've seen some decrease in inventories lately. Maybe b/c it's winter. I'm seeing some condos pop up left and right at the same time. Not an emergency but just wondering lol.
Jr. Member
Dec 11, 2011
134 posts
165 upvotes
CALEDON
It's crazy how its the complete opposite in Toronto...
Jr. Member
User avatar
Oct 27, 2008
142 posts
72 upvotes
Coquitlam
choclover wrote: One Vancouver realtor who watches the condo market closely says that something like 40,000-50,000 NEW units will be coming online very soon. This means that the supply will be flooded and might be indicative of where prices are headed. Personally, unless it's an emergency, I might wait and see how prices play out. You could end up saving yourself a *@!(load of money.
There is going to be a significant influx of new units every year. Several districts are only in their phase 1/2 and have only built a few towers out of their planned +15.
Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2007
6249 posts
2497 upvotes
I wouldn't be surprised if the developers try to release the new units in a controlled manner so as not to flood the market. But if so how long can developers realistically hang on to these units in a downward trending market?
[OP]
Banned
Nov 12, 2019
21 posts
10 upvotes
choclover wrote: I wouldn't be surprised if the developers try to release the new units in a controlled manner so as not to flood the market. But if so how long can developers realistically hang on to these units in a downward trending market?
There are alot of new units coming out from new dev. Problem is that they are overpriced. Around 1500~1600/sqft compared to 10 year old condo priced at 1000~1100/sqft. They just sit there and not get sold.
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2016
1750 posts
801 upvotes
choclover wrote: I wouldn't be surprised if the developers try to release the new units in a controlled manner so as not to flood the market. But if so how long can developers realistically hang on to these units in a downward trending market?
If these new units are completed, shouldn't the pre-sale buyers be selling them through agents? If it's developers trying to do more pre-sales, they need to adjust to the new market reality and not bake in a big premium relative to move-in ready units. Actually the market can probably do with fewer condo starts, to reduce demand on construction trades and allow condos to complete in a timely manner.
Jr. Member
User avatar
Oct 27, 2008
142 posts
72 upvotes
Coquitlam
choclover wrote: I wouldn't be surprised if the developers try to release the new units in a controlled manner so as not to flood the market. But if so how long can developers realistically hang on to these units in a downward trending market?
Developers have been doing this for years to manipulate supply and demand. Supposedly sold out buildings suddenly have units available which are not assignments either.
Member
Nov 25, 2009
367 posts
131 upvotes
Terrace
choclover wrote: One Vancouver realtor who watches the condo market closely says that something like 40,000-50,000 NEW units will be coming online very soon. This means that the supply will be flooded and might be indicative of where prices are headed. Personally, unless it's an emergency, I might wait and see how prices play out. You could end up saving yourself a *@!(load of money.
What I have come to understand after watching the market for the past few years is that the developers have absolute control over supply. Once the prices rise, more condos are going to go online until prices drop again. Then they're going to just slow down developments until prices recover. Rinse and repeat.

It really is a losing game and I don't think anything could be done really unless you could prove evidence of a cartel (I don't think you can). Just get in when prices are okay.

Top