There are tons of these outliers but the mostly are luxury homes. A few bad deals made by people many years ago are just bad deals and wont’t change the market trends.
Examples:
Jan 23rd, 2022 11:51 am
There are tons of these outliers but the mostly are luxury homes. A few bad deals made by people many years ago are just bad deals and wont’t change the market trends.
Jan 23rd, 2022 1:27 pm
When people lose this much money does it come out of their pocket or is it somehow rolled into the new mortgage? It is a question I ask where houses are sold for significantly less than what they were bought for.
Jan 23rd, 2022 1:32 pm
This is so tricky because of the elections. You can get inflation which is bad but if the stock market goes down from higher rates that is also a bad look. So is less job creation from rate increases. Trudeau doesn't have this problem at home so he may be more willing to play with fire.skipper1979 wrote: ↑ US has midterm election in fall. No ruling govt can will election with this much inflation,
Now, they want to do something early and fast. Rumors are that Fed is planning to shock the system with 0.5% rate hike and start of QT, which will drain liquidity from system. Boc is also thinking on same lines now.
Jan 23rd, 2022 1:53 pm
Jan 23rd, 2022 2:06 pm
You have to get a new job to “reset” to the current market average
Jan 23rd, 2022 2:11 pm
Canada inflation is 30 year high. It will keep printing this numbers for at-least 6 months yoy comparison. He called election last fall because he knew number would look bad in near future. He is not completely off the hook. It is still a minority govt. The the opposition pull the plug in 2nd year which start this fall is still in play.canoek wrote: ↑ This is so tricky because of the elections. You can get inflation which is bad but if the stock market goes down from higher rates that is also a bad look. So is less job creation from rate increases. Trudeau doesn't have this problem at home so he may be more willing to play with fire.
Jan 23rd, 2022 2:27 pm
Remember, not everyone needs to get the increase to keep up with housing, only the buyers do. Just a few houses on each street that sell, that person may have gotten a huge raise. The other 50 owners aren't buying so their wage changes don't matter.
Jan 23rd, 2022 2:58 pm
That's a great point.
Jan 23rd, 2022 3:21 pm
Jan 23rd, 2022 4:33 pm
Considering most builders are 1) private 2) bought land many years ago on pennies on the dollar, and 3) carrying costs on their loans are low, there hasn't been much incentive for them to sell, other than to try and time the market. With #3 starting to disappear, it might help with the situation, but #1 and #2 still stand.gc99 wrote: ↑ coupled with all the other factors discussed (interest rates, etc) I think constrained supply is the primary reason of the prices going up...
i recall a lot of freehold production builders in the suburbs, like Mattamy, etc used to have many sites and projects selling and available... but these days they are very quiet, even though they own large parcels of land for development, such as in Milton. Even when they do a release, its just of a couple blocks of homes at a time...
further i hear small builders have to go leaps and bounds through red tape to build,
The developers are limiting the supply, letting prices and profits fatten. this supply issue needs to be addressed for prices to adjust
Jan 23rd, 2022 5:46 pm
Very eye opening chart, the gains in semis and towns trailing by not much in $ despite starting points being so different from detached. It is a bit concerning to me, the levels were getting to. End of day, I'm just not sure how much upside is left for some pricier burbs. Jan will have a good chance of seeing Vaughan and Markham detached cross 2m avg, Oakville and RH already there. At one point, will people start to look at what the 2m gets, and ask themselves if it's worth it (assuming they can afford it, and that pool is shrinking fast above 2m).licenced wrote: ↑ That's a great point.
Here's a chart I did showing the progression in average price for all of the GTA, for condos, fh towns, semis and detached at 6 month intervals since 2016. The intent was to see how quickly affordability was being eroded for move-up buyers. It's pretty stark! For example where by Dec. 2018 the difference in average price for a condo and a semi detached was $145,000 it is now $469,000. It's a reality that the lack in supply is a bottleneck from move-up buyers running up against unaffordability.
Jan 23rd, 2022 5:55 pm
I think people who buy those 2M are Not first home buyers, mostly upgrading from 1.3M townhomes, and so increases mortgage is 800,000 or $3000 per monthGTA12345 wrote: ↑ Very eye opening chart, the gains in semis and towns trailing by not much in $ despite starting points being so different from detached. It is a bit concerning to me, the levels were getting to. End of day, I'm just not sure how much upside is left for some pricier burbs. Jan will have a good chance of seeing Vaughan and Markham detached cross 2m avg, Oakville and RH already there. At one point, will people start to look at what the 2m gets, and ask themselves if it's worth it (assuming they can afford it, and that pool is shrinking fast above 2m).
We all agree most buyers would prefer detached to attached, but at one point if you're looking at 40k per car every few yrs, tens of thousands for a kid(s) to go to uni, vacation desires, etc, the extra 500k become daunting. It's not just about future gains, people gotta live for the next ten/twenty yrs.
I'm no bear, but when you've got a million people in those 4 burbs I mentioned, that's a lot of housing stock to find demand for, if we expect the 2m prices to go up that much more. It's one thing for a C zone in 416 to keep going to 3m, but how many will actually line up to pay 2.5m for 2500 sq ft 40 ft lot with builder finishes?
In that way, maybe the bull run continues for places with averages sub 1.5m detached. For the others higher, I'm not so sure. The Bayview Hill experience makes me wonder if it's a micro market example of what happens when people with money decide Nah, that's just too much for the house.
I dont live in a 2m house, I'm not saying I'd sell if I did. But I'm starting to like my potential for 2022 gains over some friends with the 2m homes.
Jan 23rd, 2022 5:58 pm
Price compression has always been happening and will always continue to happen as long as the price does not go up as fast as affordability does. Detached has never been as profitable of an investment as towns or semis - condos are a bit different because of the fees.GTA12345 wrote: ↑ Very eye opening chart, the gains in semis and towns trailing by not much in $ despite starting points being so different from detached. It is a bit concerning to me, the levels were getting to. End of day, I'm just not sure how much upside is left for some pricier burbs. Jan will have a good chance of seeing Vaughan and Markham detached cross 2m avg, Oakville and RH already there. At one point, will people start to look at what the 2m gets, and ask themselves if it's worth it (assuming they can afford it, and that pool is shrinking fast above 2m).
We all agree most buyers would prefer detached to attached, but at one point if you're looking at 40k per car every few yrs, tens of thousands for a kid(s) to go to uni, vacation desires, etc, the extra 500k become daunting. It's not just about future gains, people gotta live for the next ten/twenty yrs.
I'm no bear, but when you've got a million people in those 4 burbs I mentioned, that's a lot of housing stock to find demand for, if we expect the 2m prices to go up that much more. It's one thing for a C zone in 416 to keep going to 3m, but how many will actually line up to pay 2.5m for 2500 sq ft 40 ft lot with builder finishes?
In that way, maybe the bull run continues for places with averages sub 1.5m detached. For the others higher, I'm not so sure. The Bayview Hill experience makes me wonder if it's a micro market example of what happens when people with money decide Nah, that's just too much for the house.
I dont live in a 2m house, I'm not saying I'd sell if I did. But I'm starting to like my potential for 2022 gains over some friends with the 2m homes.
Jan 23rd, 2022 7:09 pm
Nope doesn't compute.Lavaris1 wrote: ↑Wages wise many people are switching jobs and getting 30% hike and that would offset above increased mortgage.
People who buy those 1.3M TH must be first home buyers or condo/stack upgrades category
By this pattern, since there are many condo buildings and many immigrants coming in, demand for freehold TH and detached will stay very strong, all the way upto 2M for TH and 3 for detached
Jan 24th, 2022 10:20 am
thats why condo owners are not selling , specially those 2 or 3 bedroom condo/apartment owners dont see any reason to sell . who are selling the ones moving far away or bought their condo 20 years ago and dont have any mortgage to pay . move up to Freehold means 500k extra adding to your mortgage min, even if u paid off ur mortgage long time ago. Market for FTHB is getting tighter and tighter everyday as a result. unless we see significant appreciation (40%) on Condo or Condo Townhouse Market we will continue to see low inventory next couple of years. those ppl who are living in 1 bedroom condos ,once they have kids they are also moving up to 3 bedroom condo or Condo Townhouse which is putting more pressure for FTHB with kids ...licenced wrote: ↑ That's a great point.
Here's a chart I did showing the progression in average price for all of the GTA, for condos, fh towns, semis and detached at 6 month intervals since 2016. The intent was to see how quickly affordability was being eroded for move-up buyers. It's pretty stark! For example where by Dec. 2018 the difference in average price for a condo and a semi detached was $145,000 it is now $469,000. It's a reality that the lack in supply is a bottleneck from move-up buyers running up against unaffordability.
Jan 24th, 2022 11:23 am
Jan 24th, 2022 4:27 pm
Jan 24th, 2022 4:52 pm
i am in a newly built detached. When I fart in my masterbed washroom, everyone can hear it till the garageJayLove06 wrote: ↑ I’m in a new build townhouse and don’t hear voices or music. Only thing I hear faintly the odd time is footsteps. I’ve heard horror stories about some townhouses where you literally hear everything but a lot of condos are like that too. The building code changed recently when it comes to construction between units so maybe look at a newer townhouse.
The concrete block townhouses are better. Or the poured concrete ones as well.
Jan 24th, 2022 5:03 pm
Yea, it’s crazy how prices have gone up but quality has gone down. These are all little things that can easily be addressed during construction but builders are cheap. My childhood house was built in the 70s. It’s better built than my current house. We are all getting scammedVictoryBoyxx wrote: ↑ i am in a newly built detached. When I fart in my masterbed washroom, everyone can hear it till the garage
low quality compared to my previous semi detached
Jan 24th, 2022 6:41 pm
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