ediasn wrote: ↑ I've been pretty silent on the bear bull debate of greater toronto housing, but what has bothered me for the Last 10 years of bull arguments and historic data has been its future target price.
So we all know housing and condos in some gta areas has seen over 20% annualized gains in last 20 years.
From 2007 to now...a small housing in pickering was 200k...is now 1 mill. 500% gain. Same in markham Richmond hill etc
People think housing can go up 5%+ a year for next 20 years because immigration and no land..
That would mean a 3 bedroom junk old house with small lot would cost 2 mill...
That would mean a 4 bedroom big detached house in the suburbs that is 1.4 million now would be 3.5 million.
Do we think most suburb houses are going to be 3.5 million?
Incomes for computer engineers in 2007 at big banks was 50k starting from uft and waterloo. Now its 75k
In 20 years it may be 120k starting. How will they afford a 1m+ house in the shittiest areas and a 3.5m in a decent area. Of course good areas will be at least 5 m.
2% annualized gains I get....but people think 5 to 10% annualized gains in 20 20 years...
The difference between bulls and bears is very simple, now I won’t speak for all bulls but... they don’t expect prices to rise at double digits forever or even for every year. Things can stagnant, and that fine in the long run the prices will always be up. But, bears on the other hand keep calling for a correction to bring it back to “normalized” prices. They hope for this large crash to finally be able to enter the market they wish they had entered 10years ago.