GTA October Market Update - Downtown condos are in negative YOY Average Price change

Higher prices is good news.

It’s a great time to be an agent.

H0dL

Market is always changing up and down, I have a house in Whitby that is up an insane amount but personally I wouldn't bet on the burbs over the core long term. This is temporary and took a global pandemic. I'm actually debating selling it and moving to a condo in the core to capitalize but it's impossible to find a nice 3 bed condo.

moofur wrote: ↑ I think it just goes to show how many short sighted people there are and why the "rich" or "smart money" always make money. Those who think that we'll be working from home forever and selling their house in Toronto to live in Timbuktu is in for a rude awakening when things eventually get back to normal and employers start requesting their employees to come back in.

Honestly, even if your current employer allows you to wfh after the pandemic, do people really think that they're going to be working for the same employer forever? You have to plan for the future and give yourself options and flexibility for future events.

It's honestly a great time to buy, and the smart money will realize that. The "dumb money" and the short sighted will then bitch and complain as to how they got taken advantage of (ie. those who sold their house in Toronto to move to Timbuktu) or missed the boat (forever bears). You don't need to be a fortune teller to realize that the pandemic can't go on forever.

Downtown will probably recover, but there is no guarantee of a complete recovery given the trends of WFH and risk of long-term habit changes. I think it's more likely that it will go back to 70% of what it was. Given that the condos in downtown was already priced for perfection, price reductions we are seeing are totally sensible.

Market will recover.
There are great deals downtown right now.

moofur wrote: ↑ I think it just goes to show how many short sighted people there are and why the "rich" or "smart money" always make money. Those who think that we'll be working from home forever and selling their house in Toronto to live in Timbuktu is in for a rude awakening when things eventually get back to normal and employers start requesting their employees to come back in.

Honestly, even if your current employer allows you to wfh after the pandemic, do people really think that they're going to be working for the same employer forever? You have to plan for the future and give yourself options and flexibility for future events.

It's honestly a great time to buy, and the smart money will realize that. The "dumb money" and the short sighted will then bitch and complain as to how they got taken advantage of (ie. those who sold their house in Toronto to move to Timbuktu) or missed the boat (forever bears). You don't need to be a fortune teller to realize that the pandemic can't go on forever.

This. I don't know any actual people who think moving to the middle of the nowhere is a good idea and that WFH will stay permanently. Many employers are likely to go to a blended model, but full time permanent WFH is pretty damn unlikely for the majority of employers, and if it was the case, I'd worry much more about actually keeping my job. I get the impression it's a narrative trumped up by the media. There's more to life than just going to the office.

It was bound to happen.
AirBNBers on CERB with no rentals can only get so far.
This whole market is wack.

What about the sticks?
Strata townhouses still appear to be treading water.
Or is that a different kind of market?

oasis100 wrote: ↑ Market will recover.
There are great deals downtown right now.

I was looking at a couple of assignments on Kijiji and some things look a bit interesting. Although I need things to go lower to consider, I can't fathom what these buyers were thinking. I understand that circumstances may have changed, but real estate investing is a multi-decade obligation. Why are they panic selling? They clearly didn't do their research when they bought or they did so out of pure greed. And to bail out these mom and pops from their poor, emotional decisions, they need to compensate the buyers with much lower pricing.

I still think assignments could be where the best deals arise because there could be bagholders who cannot afford to close.

RaC1550 wrote: ↑ Downtown will probably recover, but there is no guarantee of a complete recovery given the trends of WFH and risk of long-term habit changes. I think it's more likely that it will go back to 70% of what it was. Given that the condos in downtown was already priced for perfection, price reductions we are seeing are totally sensible.

I completely agree with this. I initially thought that WFH would be temporary but it looks like it may be long term or even permanent for many employees. I know of several front line bank employees who never got to WFH but just received laptops last week. It seems like many companies are making mid to long term decisions based on a WFH model.

Within the condo market, I believe that downtown condos will under perform for the foreseeable future. Other neighborhoods outside of downtown but close to city centres might do better - I'm thinking of areas near don mills Station, Central North York and Markham, Scarborough town centre, square one, etc. Downtown condos were previously selling at huge premiums but these large premiums are no longer justified, so I think a correction for downtown condos are appropriate.

Its interesting that all the realtors that I talked to last year was saying that downtown condos were the safest investment...it really goes to show that anything can happen and nobody has predict the future.

It doesn't have to be all or nothing. If even only 5% of employees can work from home forever, it will have a (slight) effect on prices. And the return back to full office capacity will be very gradual. We wont be at our new "max" capacity until after the majority of the population has received both doses of their vaccine.

moofur wrote: ↑ People should be really concerned if they think that WFH is going to stick, which I really don't think it will for the majority of people. Also, downtown isn't just about jobs, it's about the lifestyle, universities, hospitals etc. etc.

RE is a long term game. If you focus on the short term and get burned you really have no one to blame but yourself.

I agree that RE is a long term game. So it really depends on your opinion on what will happen in the long term.

Imo, I think that WFH is going to be a long term trend. This is based on my observation on decisions that companies are making.

Newuserid wrote: ↑ I agree that RE is a long term game. So it really depends on your opinion on what will happen in the long term.

Imo, I think that WFH is going to be a long term trend. This is based on my observation on decisions that companies are making.

I believe in quasi-WFH. What does that do? I don't even know. Either downtown was overpriced and 1) it stays flat going, 2) slows down its growth, or 3) corrects.

Immigration and foreign students remain the wild card.

I love downtown though, but too much $$$$

moofur wrote: ↑ People should be really concerned if they think that WFH is going to stick, which I really don't think it will for the majority of people. Also, downtown isn't just about jobs, it's about the lifestyle, universities, hospitals etc. etc.

RE is a long term game. If you focus on the short term and get burned you really have no one to blame but yourself.

Maybe predicting what happens long term is hard? You must anticipate a range of possible outcomes.

I can also make a sound argument that long term, downtown real estate will do comparatively worse because long-term trends such as wfh and online shopping. Look at downtown retail, even before pandemic, retail leases in the biggest cities in the worlds were on the major decline. One of the biggest advantages of living in a downtown area is closeness of amenities, but with the convenience of doing things online, these advantages have become diminished. This trend is not going away anytime soon. Another long-term trend is likely to be the prevalence self-driving cars, which will make commuting much easier and reduce the importance being in walking distance to amenities.

Again, I am not saying that downtown will actually decline, but I also can't say that it will 100% flourish either. Realtors who tell their clients that something definitely will happen is not being truthful, because there are many risks to every outcome in the long term.

As for me, downtown tenants are acting as bunch of sheeps without the owner and without dogs that control them...And dogs are employers and all the businesses that require you to be in downtown to earn big $$$.
Lacking dogs, these sheeps spread everywhere without understanding where they have to be...so they naturally gravitate to cheaper and bigger areas in suburbs...
But the dogs are not dead...they are just sleeping until sometime next year...once they are awake, the opposite run will happen.

The strongest decision making factors dominate...Normally the major factor is "You are where your job is...".
But temporary lacking this factor, the second best becomes dominant, which is "I am where I am getting the best value of $$$ per sq ft"

I bet dollars to donuts that the people who is predicting a long term downward market for downtown have never lived downtown. I am talking proper downtown (c01/c08) and not BS downtown like north york Center. Downtown is awesome. Period. I lived in the core for 20 years and last year moved to yonge/eg. Big mistake. Big. Huge. You would be surprised how walkable downtown is. When I lived there, I took ttc maybe a handful of times a year. For a big portion of the time, I didn’t have a car. Having st Lawrence market/Eaton/Chinatown/queen/king west/etc just a 10-15 min walk is awesome. The festivals, cne,tiff...there was not a week I didn’t have something to do. New restaurants to try every week. Walking to the supermarket. I took 2-4 hour walks everyday. Sure it isn’t that great now, but I wouldn’t bet against Downtown. Even if I was only in the office one day a week, I would still love to live downtown.

my_sir wrote: ↑ I bet dollars to donuts that the people who is predicting a long term downward market for downtown have never lived downtown. I am talking proper downtown (c01/c08) and not BS downtown like north york Center. Downtown is awesome. Period. I lived in the core for 20 years and last year moved to yonge/eg. Big mistake. Big. Huge. You would be surprised how walkable downtown is. When I lived there, I took ttc maybe a handful of times a year. For a big portion of the time, I didn’t have a car. Having st Lawrence market/Eaton/Chinatown/queen/king west/etc just a 10-15 min walk is awesome. The festivals, cne,tiff...there was not a week I didn’t have something to do. New restaurants to try every week. Walking to the supermarket. I took 2-4 hour walks everyday. Sure it isn’t that great now, but I wouldn’t bet against Downtown. Even if I was only in the office one day a week, I would still love to live downtown.

One more thing I think all the exodus people have forgotten about: winter. Living downtown in the winter is just superior. It's 3-4 degrees warmer than the suburbs on the cold days, the snow melts much quicker, and driving is optional, which really helps on snow days. Being in a heated garage > shovelling your driveway and wiping snow off your car while freezing. Driving everywhere in slush and snow, going to the mall and seeing mountains of snow taking up all the parking spots, because the snow just won't melt even weeks after the last snow fall. Just depressing.

Even this morning, after the little bit of snow we got last night, I saw cars driving around covered in snow uptown. Meanwhile, downtown was bone dry, as if it never snowed at all.