Personal Finance

Is this guy legit or not so much when predicting the crash.

  • Last Updated:
  • Jan 24th, 2023 2:31 am
[OP]
Member
Dec 8, 2020
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Bc canada

Is this guy legit or not so much when predicting the crash.

I don’t see it right now yes, inflation is high. And there is a lot of talk about a crash, but this seems a little bit like he knows what he’s talking about because he’s older?

31 replies
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Jan 11, 2020
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primordialSingularit…
Guys a bit of a charlatan, but I love his books! Rich Dad Poor Dad revolutionized the way I thought about money and Cashflow Quadrant about work/careers.

He's been saying this for the past decade =/. There are half truths, half lies. The truth is no one really knows because it's an incredibly complex system where predicting the timing of anything is literally impossible. A broken clock is right twice a day, but you know this guy is bringing in dat cash from FUD. Best bet is just to diversify, cover all your bases.
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Oct 16, 2008
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Vaughan
We are crashing. Be ready.
...
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primordialSingularit…
I think calling the Fed communist is hyperbole. It's more fascism since there is still the allowance of private property. However, centrally planning the most important variable in the economy (interest rates) is bonkers. I do think a major crash is coming because of all the leverage we have built into the system - you can see people getting inundated with necessity bills now, the job losses should spike soon from the heightened rates - and this will cascade into the real estate market as people can't make their mortgages. Quite ugly.
He had the same videos in 2008/09, but I'm thankful I've seen them as part of my financial education because it caused me to save everything I could in case of calamity and diversify across different asset classes. So I'm never really really red at any one point in time, as much as I joke about it. Education system is def Marxist lol...And Ontario is introducing financial literacy in the curriculum. But this isn't standard practice. I don't think it's a communist conspiracy, I think it's just incompetence. Hanlon's Razor: "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." The lack of financial education in schools always bugged me, I didn't learn anything until University where I took economics and finance classes. Then reading books on the topic, including his. But I wouldn't say he's the best or most honest source of information, but he has some good ideas.

Edit: In actual capitalism, interest rates would be set by the aggregate actions of individual borrowers and sellers. For better or worse, you eat what you kill or you reap what you sew. The Central Bank allows the State and financial institutions to pass their screwups on the backs of ordinary citizens by linking money, and the price of money (interest rates) to a single source. Very unethical. Why must we toil for money while they can just hit a few keystrokes and create it from thin air (which dilutes the value of our hard-earned currency)? If you want to be able to sustain major warfare and welfare States, then Central Banks are a necessity. Pros and cons...It just provides another avenue of covert taxation, and people will just blame the grocers and energy companies =/. Win-Win!
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Jan 21, 2018
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On every economic issue you will find pundits predicting it will go radically one way, others predicting it will go radically the other way, and a bunch in the middle hedging their bets with "on the one hand this, while on the other hand that...".

After the fact, the ones who randomly got it right will crow about how smart they are, and confidently predict the next outcome - which they have an unchanged 50-50 chance of getting right. The others will say "well, I warned that might happen...".

Economists are great at explaining what's happening, but have unfortunately proven pretty much useless at predicting what will happen.
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Feb 23, 2008
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Brampton
There are a lot of fear mongering videos on YouTube. If you watch them you will never invest in the stock market! Warren Buffett and Plain Bagel videos are positive so I recommend watching them.
Lets Go Blue Jays!!!
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GVRD
If any one of the extreme predictors were right, they'd be billionaires as a result of all their shorting stocks and purchases of puts. Yet, they want to convince others that it's coming. He's right in that there will be crashes in the future but in another category than 1929 of course.

Some interesting facts about the economic marketplace:

Most Americans put all their 'extra' money and their retirement savings in the stock market. They can do that as most Americans don't pay $2M+ for their homes (with exceptions of course). Because of that, the U.S. government won't ever let the markets crash for long. It's too strategic and not a free flowing market as it used to be. Same with banks. Massive regulations were introduced.

Most Canadians prefer to put most of their savings in real estate, then with 'extra' money going into stocks - or perhaps their company/gov't pension plan is highly invested in stocks. It's going to be a tricky time for some when those extremely low locked-in mortgage rates are renewed either naturally or upon a forced sale (relocate, divorce, etc.). But most will be fine for a few years. However, if any kind of negative employment conditions exist, as a result of a recession, then it could be real trouble for some.

I think the biggest danger is seen in unforeseen conditions. It could be interesting if some countries move away from trading in the U.S. dollar. Already Russia and China are doing that with their trading. If other big economies (e.g. Saudi Arabia trades oil for spot gold prices) do that, it could really change things. If China, Russia, Iran, etc., get together for a military pact, and then start acting aggressively, China takes Taiwan, Russia takes Ukraine, North Korea hits a U.S. ship, etc., trade with China significantly declines, etc., it's a whole new world.

It's the now-unknowns that will spark an economic crisis in the future, then the markets will move extremely fast to adjust to that crisis. That'll be scary, but none of those conditions might happen in the next few years.

So the extremists are wrong in that they themselves don’t know what the yet-unknown spark will be, or when. There are also many who are predicting a strong bull market beginning in the summer/fall, after short-term interest rates (they predict) level and begin to fall. It's much easier after things happen to say "I knew that would happen!"
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Apr 29, 2018
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We are already in a crash. Stocks are down, property is down, customer spending is down, savings are at the lowest levels since 2008, every one is warning of a crash. From BlackRock, to JP Morgan to the IMF.
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Nov 29, 2022
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Either the video was badly cut on purpose to made him look bad and/or Robert Kiyosaki is stupid.
One look at his Wikipedia page and you'll understand why he want to spread FUD - to sell his courses and books.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Kiyosaki

I can't take him seriously with so many factual errors, communist, Marxist, inflation/deflation stuff just to name a few.

He's sort of right about one thing tho - there are lot of opportunities when there's a crash.
What he didn't tell you is that only happens when you are holding large amount of cash. Furthermore, there's an opportunity cost of holding cash. What about those of you without the initial capital to benefit from a crash? Well there's an easy and simple answer to that ... :facepalm:
Jr. Member
May 24, 2021
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"Forecasts may tell u a lot about the forecaster, but they tell u nothing about the future." - Warren Buffet

"The only function of economic forecasts is to make astrology more respectable." - John Kenneth Gabraith (Nobel prize economist)
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Jan 21, 2018
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SmokinGun wrote: "Forecasts may tell u a lot about the forecaster, but they tell u nothing about the future." - Warren Buffet

"The only function of economic forecasts is to make astrology more respectable ." - John Kenneth Gabraith (Nobel prize economist)
Close. Don't assume quotes are accurate as given, look up the original... :)
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Nov 6, 2022
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I don't need to watch the video to know that people need to stop listening to this kind of garbage. The economy is being affected by higher interest rates and the beginnings of the real estate bubble bursting. These and other factors may lead to a temporary slowdown or technical recession of the economy. A downturn is not a "crash". Employment is high, any recession should be mild and short-lived. Or I may be totally wrong - but even then, what can you do? Trying to time the market always fails. There's no reason to panic, just look at the longer term and stay calm.
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primordialSingularit…
Yeah, I just buy gold (as cash/bond allocation) and S&P500 ETFs & hope for the best. Human capital is the most important thing to invest in during inflationary periods because you'll need to switch jobs to keep indexing to the new devalued currency reality. Hence the CS degree =/. Plus money stopped being fun for me awhile ago, it was a novelty in the 20s, but as you get older, it's just a means to an end or a freedom/options/time/life giver, but you need a ton of it for this. I expect a shitshow from higher rates ripping into highly leveraged insolvent people/companies, but if things aren't as bad as I project, it's a win. I care not. Kiyosaki told me not to acquire liabilities and only accumulate assets [via his definition, assets put money into your pocket, liabilities take money out], it was great advice. But charlatan otherwise lol...
Newbie
Nov 29, 2022
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Instead of watching garbage like this from Robert Kiyosaki, you'll be better inform and entertain by reading investor letter + thread from security analysis sub reddit:
https://old.reddit.com/r/SecurityAnalysis/
Q4 2022 Letters & Reports
https://old.reddit.com/r/SecurityAnalys ... s_reports/
Q3 2022 Letters & Reports
https://old.reddit.com/r/SecurityAnalys ... s_reports/
I think the follow quote from Q3 2022 thread is relevant:
[–]timearbitrage 17 points 2 months ago 

The past decade has churned out an interesting breed: the well-meaning charlatan. These are guys who speak in a soft voice, have pseudo-intellectual thoughts that make them seem smart, and have absolutely no clue about investing or risk management.

These kids have had a few outstanding years by putting money into story stocks and getting lucky on the updraft. They then hit up allocators at a time when single-manager funds were closing down, capital needed to be re-allocated, and investing in Twitterati was in vogue.

Today, these guys have pocketed millions of OPM (other people's money) on the up-years, and have lost many multiples of that amount for their LPs (limited partners). There's zero admission of incompetence within the group, and they're passing off their atrocious results as bear-market casualties. In any other industry, that would be considered white collar fraud.

The list is pretty long, but builds itself if you look at those who used to and continue to market themselves on this website by 'anonymously' submitting their letters. I've met most of these guys, and there's not one iota of self-awareness in the group.

So yes - they're 'fundamentally decent'. You'd trust them to watch your dog. Maybe share a laugh over a beer. But they should have never been entrusted with OPM, and they made out like bandits by pretending to be something they're not (i.e. fund managers).
Plus it's always fun to read letters from "bad" funds like Greenhaven, Hayden Capital and JDP.
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Mar 9, 2012
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Kitchener
Dejavudiva wrote: I don’t see it right now yes, inflation is high. And there is a lot of talk about a crash, but this seems a little bit like he knows what he’s talking about because he’s older?

Whatever the majority of experts are saying, expect the opposite. That's the only thing I have learned on this planet when it comes to finance.

Also, listen to what your gut says. I did, last November, when I ask my bank to renew early. I could, but by only 3 months (so I had to wait until January). Whatever the case, experts and my banker were telling me that variable was the best option, which I firmly declined. Just had a sense things would sour from that standpoint before my renewal. And they did. I am now a good 3% lower than any variable out there.
Why can't we all just get along?
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Jan 21, 2018
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jeff1970 wrote: Whatever the majority of experts are saying, expect the opposite. That's the only thing I have learned on this planet when it comes to finance.
Not necessarily, but it's not a bad idea to invest opposite the "expert" consensus, because that's how you make money. Following the consensus trend would have you always behind the curve and losing money after Inflation an taxes.
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Feb 4, 2015
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Canada, Eh!!
If he repeats enough time he'll possibly be right and sell his stuff.

His Dad would have been so proud, not!!
2022: BOC raised 8 times and MCAP raised its prime next day.
2017 to 2018: BOC raised rates 5 times and MCAP raised its prime next day each time.
2020: BOC dropped rates 3 times and MCAP waited to drop its prime to include all 3 drops.
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Jul 26, 2015
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Vancouver, BC
Even a broken clock shows the right time twice a day :)
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Jul 1, 2007
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Stocks go down one in every three years, and there will be one or two big crashes every decade. As a result, there will always be a bunch of people trying to scare you out of your investment strategy, but the only way you will successful over the long term is by ignoring them all, and being fully invested through every up and down of the market (there will be more ups than downs).
Money Smarts Blog wrote: I agree with the previous posters, especially Thalo. {And} Thalo's advice is spot on.
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May 16, 2017
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Thalo wrote: Stocks go down one in every three years, and there will be one or two big crashes every decade. As a result, there will always be a bunch of people trying to scare you out of your investment strategy, but the only way you will successful over the long term is by ignoring them all, and being fully invested through every up and down of the market (there will be more ups than downs).
Part of the problem is throwing around the word "crash" and letting the reader define it. By an accepted common definition, a crash is a very large, sudden and UNEXPECTED decline in the stock market. Including the 1929 crash that marked entry into the Great Depression, it could be said there has only been 6 maybe only 5 actual "crashes" and the only time there has been two in a decade were the 2000's dot-com bubble burst and the 2008 global financial crisis.

Another important factor when assessing market downturns of the past is how long they persisted and what the recovery looked like. Obviously the Great Depression was the worst while the economic consequences and recovery from the others since have been far less dramatic. A lot of that due to lessons-learned from history and measures taken to blunt the immediate impacts, some of which have their own economic impacts, which we see right now in inflation arising from pandemic-related measures.

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