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has the inflation fear pendulum swung to far?

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  • May 19th, 2021 11:03 pm
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Jan 4, 2021
51 posts
37 upvotes

has the inflation fear pendulum swung to far?

6 months ago, very few people were talking about inflation... just some of the 'extreme' talking heads.

today, everyone's talking about.

Is the inflation fear being over blown and is Powell right - it's transitory?
6 replies
Jr. Member
Nov 28, 2017
173 posts
79 upvotes
dealhunter69420 wrote: 6 months ago, very few people were talking about inflation... just some of the 'extreme' talking heads.

today, everyone's talking about.

Is the inflation fear being over blown and is Powell right - it's transitory?

Assets and commodities have been going vertical ... inflation is here.

Could be a mid-term inflation deal (like 2010-2013), Inflation will be let to run hot until it cannot anymore (people protesting in the streets, unable to afford basics, etc.). Governments will have a hard time reigning in debt.
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Sep 19, 2004
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dealhunter69420 wrote: 6 months ago, very few people were talking about inflation... just some of the 'extreme' talking heads.

today, everyone's talking about.

Is the inflation fear being over blown and is Powell right - it's transitory?
Pretty sure stock markets always over-swings both ways
When Tech/EV/TSLA/FOMO was wild till mid-Feb, things ran too hot, and got too cold last few weeks (see ARK)
Oil prices went negative last March, and now is near $70 USD Brent


Inflation, even if FED says it's transitory, people are still over-playing it, into Cyclical stocks
Good Inflation should be good for stock markets, let's hope
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Sep 21, 2007
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jerryhung wrote: Pretty sure stock markets always over-swings both ways
When Tech/EV/TSLA/FOMO was wild till mid-Feb, things ran too hot, and got too cold last few weeks (see ARK)
Oil prices went negative last March, and now is near $70 USD Brent


Inflation, even if FED says it's transitory, people are still over-playing it, into Cyclical stocks
Good Inflation should be good for stock markets, let's hope
Don't jinx it.
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Deal Addict
Oct 21, 2014
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I love a good story - when there's this sort of high powered talk in the media about economic issues it's a grand illusion, a carnival of fortune tellers, charlatans and worst of all economists staring in to a crystal ball to give a flawed portent in to the future. These issues might or might not materialize in the companies you have an ownership stake in, but you are assured of the discount you get if you buy while the fears are dominating market psychology. The market is very efficient at processing information in to price movements, but when the information the market is acting upon is incomplete or the interpretation of the data is skewed by innate human bias toward fearing the unknown we see these types of price distortions. This is where the old adage of the market taking the elevator down and the steps back up comes from, people lose confidence quickly and build it back slowly - just as the market does even if this is not reflective of real economic conditions.

That said - there has been inflation in many of commodities desired for a stay home economy, like lumber in semis and as well for oil and copper. How long until supply catches up with demand? As well, now that people are starting to leave their homes some of the money that we're spending on renos are going to go to other parts of the economy. Lumber is already coming down and copper is down a bit as well. Inflation might well be transitory, or there might be a period of higher inflation. If there is higher inflation, I'd suggest owning stock or real estate as a hedge against inflation.

I've actually been accumulating this month for the first time in a very long time, there hasn't been much to buy over the last year. Just make sure you own financial house is in order before committing capital to the market. You don't want to have to be forced to sell during a market crash because you don't have cash in the bank.
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Mar 21, 2013
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dealhunter69420 wrote: 6 months ago, very few people were talking about inflation... just some of the 'extreme' talking heads.

today, everyone's talking about.

Is the inflation fear being over blown and is Powell right - it's transitory?
I'm starting to come around to the idea that inflation is going to be transitory. Not asset inflation though. But nobody really knows for sure.

I do think that the Fed and BoC will raise rates earlier than planned (which BoC already signalled).
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Dec 27, 2013
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So, do I ride silver #tothemoon or not?!

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