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HMMJ just for about 7 years, bad idea?

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  • Apr 3rd, 2019 8:03 pm
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[OP]
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Dec 28, 2010
637 posts
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HMMJ just for about 7 years, bad idea?

I know the MER is on the higher side but I know the cannabis market is gonna grow, why would I not just ride HMMJ for a couple of years, I had been in TDB902 for a long time and the return was good (I bought TDb902 in 2006 when I didn't even know MER's existed)?
Do you want to meet the love of your life? Look in the mirror. | Byron Katie
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Newbie
Jun 28, 2015
51 posts
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Stouffville, ON
I have no opinion on holding hmmj for 7 years. I read somewhere that there will be some US cannabis etf's coming out soon. In my opinion the US has a higher risk/reward that would benefit more from a 7 year hold.

Just something to consider.
Sr. Member
Jun 28, 2018
890 posts
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Toronto
VESTEGAARD wrote: HMMJ just for about 7 years, bad idea?
I know the MER is on the higher side but I know the cannabis market is gonna grow, why would I not just ride HMMJ for a couple of years, I had been in TDB902 for a long time and the return was good (I bought TDb902 in 2006 when I didn't even know MER's existed)?

Any reason why you chose 7 years? Why not 1, 5, 10? 11? etc

Also, a couple years means 2 years.
The Distracted Investor

Dividends through quality companies 😃 Though I usually lose money with trades :facepalm:
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Feb 5, 2017
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I think that the big money is going to shift from canadian to us company as well. US pot ETF would be a better choice.
Deal Addict
Jul 22, 2009
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Brampton
VESTEGAARD wrote: I know the MER is on the higher side but I know the cannabis market is gonna grow, why would I not just ride HMMJ for a couple of years, I had been in TDB902 for a long time and the return was good (I bought TDb902 in 2006 when I didn't even know MER's existed)?
I don't think you can loose, question is how much will you make.
[OP]
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Dec 28, 2010
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johnnychi wrote: Any reason why you chose 7 years? Why not 1, 5, 10? 11? etc

I have seen cannabis being more or less legal in European countries and my guestimate is that the Canadian cannabis market is stretched out in seven years. I jumped into ACB and WEED early and am still holding both with a very decent return now. I have cash money in my sons RDSP and looked at either XGRO or HMMJ and figured it would be nice to have a nice growing ETF for some years. Seven years, it's just a number.
Do you want to meet the love of your life? Look in the mirror. | Byron Katie
Sr. Member
Jun 28, 2018
890 posts
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Toronto
alexcalvado wrote: I think that the big money is going to shift from canadian to us company as well. US pot ETF would be a better choice.
I have a sneaking suspicion as well. Once US Federally legalizes or even reduces MJ scheduling the Canadian companies operating solely in Canada may be pressured heavily. Those more diversified have a better chance. There's a senate vote for allowing US Banks to access Marijuana company cash https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomangell/ ... committee/

If US banks get access it will add pressure.
The Distracted Investor

Dividends through quality companies 😃 Though I usually lose money with trades :facepalm:
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Jan 27, 2006
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kopokipi wrote: I don't think you can loose, question is how much will you make.
You can.

Right now HMMJ is buying Canadian listed cannabis stocks with the vast majority of the market cap being Canadian market listed one (vs. those who's operations are in the US). The investment 'story' is that the Canadian market ones will be at the forefront when the US legalizes. The problem is we don't know when or if that's going to happen at the federal level. If you combine that with the facts that most of these companies are really like microcap exploration miners who just happen to have a lot of money, make contractual commitments to deliver the product that they can't meet (even after 6 months), and are now where close to being profitable, you don't get a pretty story.

I see a few things happening in the future:

1. If they can't get their act together soon, many of these companies will be forced out of business OR do a few secondary offerings in order to keep the lights on.
2. The US players (especially in California) will start making informal alliances (can't be formal as they might cross state lines which is a federal NO-NO). When legalization occurs, those alliances will quickly be formalized creating companies that are huge in comparison to the Canadian ones. After all, the market in California alone will probably exceed the entire Canadian marketplace. With these large US players in place, Canadian operators won't have the size or scale to compete in the US marketplace. Some US players will eventually eye Canada as their place of expansion resulting in buyouts OR just massive expansion North of the border - just like any other retail operation.
3. If 1 and 2 happens, many of the Canadian firms will fold.

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