How was everyone's 2017?
Hey guys;
I hope everyone had a successful 2017! Stocks have been crazy good this year, so I think it would be relatively hard to lose this year.
I myself had some large successes and some some mistakes/failures which I will share.
My Air Canada stake has done tremendously well. I have started around $13-14 and ended the year over $25. I did pare down my position as I found that my portfolio was over-invested in the company. Nevertheless, focusing on a company with growing earnings, improving fundamentals and that was discounted for no good reason has paid off very well!
My strategy this year was focusing on people's fears and taking advantage of them. Marc Cohodes short-selling campaigns have truly paid off well for me. I have invested in both Exchange Income Corporation and Badger Daylighting, two of his largest short positions. These companies have solid cash flow and earnings. Initial fears of their solvency had pushed their shares down to $28ish, and $23ish to which I have taken advantage of. I have sold off BAD ($29ish) and gone back in as it goes back down($25-27) many times. Exchange Income Corp I have held onto for dividend purposes and have sat on at least +20% gain on share price alone. Bank of Internet (BOFI) has also had large swings. I am average $26ish and have seen it go up and down. I believe their fundamentals, growing business, and increasing interest rates will ultimately pay off big. So far, I am sitting on a big gain.
Another big success was Hawaiian Holdings. I made good trade on the news Southwest Airlines was planning to enter the Hawaiian marketplace. The shares sold off substantially with over 30% drop. I felt this news was way over the top and had entered at around $33. With the bankruptcy of Island Air, the shares jumped right back up to $40. I did sell early around $38, but I still made a quick buck.
Volkswagen was also a good selection. The fears of the company on Dieselgate has made them an unpopular selection over the likes of Tesla. I really focused on the their earnings, cashflow and recovering purchase metrics to buy into them. I am sitting on a decent gain so far and hope to continue adding to my position in the following year.
Conversely, targeting Marc Cohodes trades also have hurt me in terms of Home Capital Group. While the company had solid numbers, banks/mortgage companies have a big vulnerability in that they rely on deposits to function. The fear that existed at the start of the year eroded my position and I lost +$20K on my position as I sold. I truly believed that Home Capital Group was fine and that they would recover. Sure enough, as fears subsided, the shares grew back up from $7ish back to $17. i could have easily recovered my funds, however things were really unsure. I guess my biggest lesson was that a company that relies on people's deposits are vulnerable. GIC and HISA investors are the type that do not like uncertainty and so if you have news that shakes that confidence, you might get hurt. No matter how big of systems we have in place such as CDIC, people are always going to get scared.
Although I sold off early, I still own 4 shares of Volaris Aviation. They are a high-growth ULCC in Mexico and I believe that they will do well. I haven't considered the big risks of NAFTA eating into their business. They are still profitable, but their cash flows in Mexican Pesos and their costs in US$ really dampers their shares. I made a small loss with them, but I do believe in the company. With the shares now cracking below $9, I am planning to go back in. I have learnt that politics does still play a big role especially in economies (eg. Mexico) that are still developing, and rely on unstable trade relations (Trump America).
As of Friday last week, I am sitting on a 40.8% gain on my trading portfolio. I am very pleased with my result especially considering my gains were wiped out and then some earlier this year.
Thanks to everyone on this board for their insights and ideas. Even for those who's opinions I don't agree with, I have definitely learnt about different investing ideas and rationales and this knowledge is what allows me to be more confident in the things I do.
What about everyone else? What successes and mistakes have you done this year?
I hope everyone had a successful 2017! Stocks have been crazy good this year, so I think it would be relatively hard to lose this year.
I myself had some large successes and some some mistakes/failures which I will share.
My Air Canada stake has done tremendously well. I have started around $13-14 and ended the year over $25. I did pare down my position as I found that my portfolio was over-invested in the company. Nevertheless, focusing on a company with growing earnings, improving fundamentals and that was discounted for no good reason has paid off very well!
My strategy this year was focusing on people's fears and taking advantage of them. Marc Cohodes short-selling campaigns have truly paid off well for me. I have invested in both Exchange Income Corporation and Badger Daylighting, two of his largest short positions. These companies have solid cash flow and earnings. Initial fears of their solvency had pushed their shares down to $28ish, and $23ish to which I have taken advantage of. I have sold off BAD ($29ish) and gone back in as it goes back down($25-27) many times. Exchange Income Corp I have held onto for dividend purposes and have sat on at least +20% gain on share price alone. Bank of Internet (BOFI) has also had large swings. I am average $26ish and have seen it go up and down. I believe their fundamentals, growing business, and increasing interest rates will ultimately pay off big. So far, I am sitting on a big gain.
Another big success was Hawaiian Holdings. I made good trade on the news Southwest Airlines was planning to enter the Hawaiian marketplace. The shares sold off substantially with over 30% drop. I felt this news was way over the top and had entered at around $33. With the bankruptcy of Island Air, the shares jumped right back up to $40. I did sell early around $38, but I still made a quick buck.
Volkswagen was also a good selection. The fears of the company on Dieselgate has made them an unpopular selection over the likes of Tesla. I really focused on the their earnings, cashflow and recovering purchase metrics to buy into them. I am sitting on a decent gain so far and hope to continue adding to my position in the following year.
Conversely, targeting Marc Cohodes trades also have hurt me in terms of Home Capital Group. While the company had solid numbers, banks/mortgage companies have a big vulnerability in that they rely on deposits to function. The fear that existed at the start of the year eroded my position and I lost +$20K on my position as I sold. I truly believed that Home Capital Group was fine and that they would recover. Sure enough, as fears subsided, the shares grew back up from $7ish back to $17. i could have easily recovered my funds, however things were really unsure. I guess my biggest lesson was that a company that relies on people's deposits are vulnerable. GIC and HISA investors are the type that do not like uncertainty and so if you have news that shakes that confidence, you might get hurt. No matter how big of systems we have in place such as CDIC, people are always going to get scared.
Although I sold off early, I still own 4 shares of Volaris Aviation. They are a high-growth ULCC in Mexico and I believe that they will do well. I haven't considered the big risks of NAFTA eating into their business. They are still profitable, but their cash flows in Mexican Pesos and their costs in US$ really dampers their shares. I made a small loss with them, but I do believe in the company. With the shares now cracking below $9, I am planning to go back in. I have learnt that politics does still play a big role especially in economies (eg. Mexico) that are still developing, and rely on unstable trade relations (Trump America).
As of Friday last week, I am sitting on a 40.8% gain on my trading portfolio. I am very pleased with my result especially considering my gains were wiped out and then some earlier this year.
Thanks to everyone on this board for their insights and ideas. Even for those who's opinions I don't agree with, I have definitely learnt about different investing ideas and rationales and this knowledge is what allows me to be more confident in the things I do.
What about everyone else? What successes and mistakes have you done this year?
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