Health & Wellness

How 'overreaction' made Vietnam a virus success

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  • May 26th, 2020 8:17 pm
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How 'overreaction' made Vietnam a virus success

Despite a long border with China and a population of 97 million people, Vietnam has recorded only just over 300 cases of Covid-19 on its soil and not a single death.

Nearly a month has passed since its last community transmission and the country is already starting to open up.

'Extreme but sensible' measures
"When you're dealing with these kinds of unknown novel potentially dangerous pathogens, it's better to overreact," says Dr Todd Pollack of Harvard's Partnership for Health Advancement in Vietnam in Hanoi.

Recognising that its medical system would soon become overwhelmed by even mild spread of the virus, Vietnam instead chose prevention early, and on a massive scale.

By early January, before it had any confirmed cases, Vietnam's government was initiating "drastic action" to prepare for this mysterious new pneumonia which had at that point killed two people in Wuhan.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52628283
24 replies
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Nov 10, 2019
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Good for them. Had we made the same or slightest overreaction here early on, the amount of anger would have been overwhelming imo.
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Aug 17, 2018
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Even with the hiccups they had, they really did an amazing job in containment and health care for those infected.
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good for vietnam to have their own independent thought rather than regurgitating what the WHO says.
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But but but but all the "small business owners" on RFD keep telling me that we should be like Sweden, and let everyone get infected by the virus! :facepalm:
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konfusion666 wrote: But but but but all the "small business owners" on RFD keep telling me that we should be like Sweden, and let everyone get infected by the virus! :facepalm:
Sweden had virtually no lockdown whatsoever and has a dramatically lower death rate than the badly hit countries in Europe like France, UK, Italy, Spain, etc etc.

In fact they have far fewer deaths than Canada and our number keeps rising. When this is all said and done we will likely have a higher overall death rate than them as well.

They also now have a population with a significant portion immune to the virus, meaning it's unlikely they will have any second wave, and don't need to implement any travel bans or crazy restrictions in general for the next year or so while we wait for a vaccine (that may or may not come). They can just go on living their lives.

They have also saved their economy and millions of jobs - likely preventing many second-order issues like suicides, depression, and of course - the worst economy that the rest of the world will likely see in our lifetimes.

I think it's difficult to call Sweden's approach anything but a complete success at this point, and this will become even more clear as time progresses. People are slowly coming around to it - even the WHO said that the world needs to pay attention to Sweden's approach.
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Aug 14, 2015
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The only rational countries are ones that is trying to eradicate it. Vietnam is one of the few.

Then there is the middle of the ground countries that believes in long term pain in the name of ideology.

And then we have Sweden, a country that makes decision based on doing the opposite of what other countries are doing.
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Did you say that because of some politicians. Vietnam actually did implemented a lot of measures recommended by WHO. Their strategy is very similar to China, HK and Taiwan.
yesstyle wrote: good for vietnam to have their own independent thought rather than regurgitating what the WHO says.

Didn't we talk about Sweden in another thread? You have to compare Sweden with Scandinavia countries and they are NOT doing good at all using any metrics. Speaking of their economy, I think they are hit just as bad.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronav ... urope.html

It is not the lockdown that kills the economic, it is COVID-19 and stupidity of some governments. I am not saying Sweden is wrong but I don't agree with their approach, and the latest results from NYC, Spain and Hubei province (China) shows herd immunity is not the answer despite the casualties these places had incurred. Since Sweden did it already, we can learn the good and bad from them and get ready for wave 2 which could be very different from wave 1.

gei wrote: Sweden had virtually no lockdown whatsoever and has a dramatically lower death rate than the badly hit countries in Europe like France, UK, Italy, Spain, etc etc.

In fact they have far fewer deaths than Canada and our number keeps rising. When this is all said and done we will likely have a higher overall death rate than them as well.

They also now have a population with a significant portion immune to the virus, meaning it's unlikely they will have any second wave, and don't need to implement any travel bans or crazy restrictions in general for the next year or so while we wait for a vaccine (that may or may not come). They can just go on living their lives.

They have also saved their economy and millions of jobs - likely preventing many second-order issues like suicides, depression, and of course - the worst economy that the rest of the world will likely see in our lifetimes.

I think it's difficult to call Sweden's approach anything but a complete success at this point, and this will become even more clear as time progresses. People are slowly coming around to it - even the WHO said that the world needs to pay attention to Sweden's approach.
Masks can reduce spread of COVID-19 by 83.3% and keep economy open, wear one!
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82 wrote: Did you say that because of some politicians. Vietnam actually did implemented a lot of measures recommended by WHO. Their strategy is very similar to China, HK and Taiwan.
yes, one that coincidentally has a HK background. May have ties to mainland. Dunno. Maybe

Vietnam obviously didnt just blindly follow WHO's advice but twisting them to better suit their own nation. Considering how close they are to China, they should be a lot worse than us but its the other way around.
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gei wrote: Sweden had virtually no lockdown whatsoever and has a dramatically lower death rate than the badly hit countries in Europe like France, UK, Italy, Spain, etc etc.
Sweden only has a fraction (1/8th?) the population of those countries.
In fact they have far fewer deaths than Canada and our number keeps rising. When this is all said and done we will likely have a higher overall death rate than them as well.
Population is about the size of Ontario or Québec.

Death rate is also significantly higher than its Nordic neighbours.

Comparison below. I have also added Belgium and the Netherlands who were late in social distancing/isolating.

Juridisction No. dead Population (million) Deaths per 100,000
Sweden 3,679 10.23 36.0
Finland 298 5.518 5.4
Norway 232 5.368 4.3
Denmark 547 5.806 9.4
France 28,062 66.99 41.9
UK 34,636 66.65 52.0
Italy 31,908 60.36 52.9
Spain 27,563 46.94 58.7
Quebec 3,563 8.485 42.0
Ontario 1,999 14.57 13.7
Canada 5,903 37.59 15.7
Belgium 9,052 11.46 79.0
Netherlands 5,699 17.28 33.0

Even given Spain's high death rate, it seems only 5% of the population has been exposed.

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/16/21259492/ ... s-immunity

FWIW, "Babe" Ruth got the U.S ("Spanish") flu twice in 1918.
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What you said imply that there are issues with WHO's advice, do you know what does World Health recommend? They actually published a very comprehensive framework for the pandemic preparedness strategy based on their field visit from China that covers even R&D as that is the solution for the pandemic (I don't see any conflict in Vietnam strategy compared to WHO's recommendations). You mentioned Vietnam is close to China should be a lot worse than us but do you know where are most of our imported cases coming from? Do you know the geography location of Hubei province? What's the infected cases of Yunnan province back in March? How are Cambodia and Laos compared to Vietnam? We should not relay reckless comments from politicians blindly. Could World Health did a better job? of course and usually there will be reviews when pandemic is over but without crystal ball, I don't see and major problems from WHO. We are learning new things about SARS-CoV-2 every week, one thing never mentioned in WHO's report is COVID-19 impact to younger population (e.g. Kawasaki symptoms), could be result of mutation, simply not reported in China, unable to relate to COVID-19.,, but this is one example to demonstrate how fast things are moving in this pandemic.
yesstyle wrote: yes, one that coincidentally has a HK background. May have ties to mainland. Dunno. Maybe

Vietnam obviously didnt just blindly follow WHO's advice but twisting them to better suit their own nation. Considering how close they are to China, they should be a lot worse than us but its the other way around.
Masks can reduce spread of COVID-19 by 83.3% and keep economy open, wear one!
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thriftshopper wrote: Sweden only has a fraction (1/8th?) the population of those countries.



Population is about the size of Ontario or Québec.

Death rate is also significantly higher than its Nordic neighbours.

Comparison below. I have also added Belgium and the Netherlands who were late in social distancing/isolating.

Juridisction No. dead Population (million) Deaths per 100,000
Sweden 3,679 10.23 36.0
Finland 298 5.518 5.4
Norway 232 5.368 4.3
Denmark 547 5.806 9.4
France 28,062 66.99 41.9
UK 34,636 66.65 52.0
Italy 31,908 60.36 52.9
Spain 27,563 46.94 58.7
Quebec 3,563 8.485 42.0
Ontario 1,999 14.57 13.7
Canada 5,903 37.59 15.7
Belgium 9,052 11.46 79.0
Netherlands 5,699 17.28 33.0

Even given Spain's high death rate, it seems only 5% of the population has been exposed.

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/16/21259492/ ... s-immunity

FWIW, "Babe" Ruth got the U.S ("Spanish") flu twice in 1918.
And their total deaths will continue to slow down vs other countries since they have a lot more herd immunity.

Also, the overall deaths will be 10x lower when you include the non-traceable suicides, depression, deaths by fear of going to hospital for other diseases, forgotten chronic patients, etc.

And an economy that is destroyed and indebted for generations to come. All to save a few thousands elderly that were going to die anyway in months/few years from now.
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We don't know of "herd immunity" works for this. No proof or at least firm evidence that you cannot get it a second time.
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Sweden had no lockdown but its economy is expected to suffer just as badly as its European neighbors
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronav ... urope.html

Keep in mind that Sweden is not taking a real herb immunity approach, they are still recommending social distancing. This explains why their IFR hasn't reach herd immunity yet. I think we should continue to observe and see if we can learn something good from Sweden's strategy for next wave. So far their strategy doesn't look good but I wouldn't call it a epic fail yet.

While it is true that there is currently no proof the you cannot get reinfect by COVID-19 . Current consensus believe the chance of reinfection is low but we don't know how long the immunity will last.

Masks can reduce spread of COVID-19 by 83.3% and keep economy open, wear one!
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82 wrote: Sweden had no lockdown but its economy is expected to suffer just as badly as its European neighbors
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronav ... urope.html

Keep in mind that Sweden is not taking a real herb immunity approach, they are still recommending social distancing. This explains why their IFR hasn't reach herd immunity yet. I think we should continue to observe and see if we can learn something good from Sweden's strategy for next wave. So far their strategy doesn't look good but I wouldn't call it a epic fail yet.

While it is true that there is currently no proof the you cannot get reinfect by COVID-19 . Current consensus believe the chance of reinfection is low but we don't know how long the immunity will last.
Social distancing is required to not overwhelm hospitals. But you cannot just try to block this virus out or starve it. It will not happen, and economy, peoples livelihood will be destroyed if you attempt this.

For countries that were not prepared (most) the first month of isolation was maybe required to not overwhelm the hospitals, but more than that was just useless and counter productive. Countries only opening up when cases are almost 0? That's ******** and a sure way to devastate the economy, families and mental health.

Hospitals now are prepared. PPE is being produced. People know about this virus and have been indoctrinated to keep social distancing. No reason why not to fully open everything, including tourism, etc. You cannot stop the virus. A vaccine might never happen. Just go with it and peoples awareness, social distancing and much better capable hospitals with PPE must be the new norm until or IF a vaccine will come.

Hence why Sweden put the perfect plan in action. And even if reinfection is a thing, why does it matter. If a person survived the first infection, it will absolutely survive the 2nd, unless some life threatening condition develop unrelated to covid. Was these supposedly reinfections been bad to put that same person back into the hospital? And this has to be asked on mass, in the average of cases, not just 1 person example, like that one person who apparently been stayed infected and in the hospital for 2 months. Who knows what underlying condition causes these outliers to happen.

The actions taken by most governments are sadistical, for a virus that is barely worse than the flu. Imagine if we would do this for the common cold or influenza. We would be 100 years backwards in technology and discoveries. The actions that were taken, and for the amount of time they have been in place, were only justified if COVID had the current infection rate but the lethality of ebola
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gei wrote: Sweden had virtually no lockdown whatsoever and has a dramatically lower death rate than the badly hit countries in Europe like France, UK, Italy, Spain, etc etc.

In fact they have far fewer deaths than Canada and our number keeps rising. When this is all said and done we will likely have a higher overall death rate than them as well.

They also now have a population with a significant portion immune to the virus, meaning it's unlikely they will have any second wave, and don't need to implement any travel bans or crazy restrictions in general for the next year or so while we wait for a vaccine (that may or may not come). They can just go on living their lives.

They have also saved their economy and millions of jobs - likely preventing many second-order issues like suicides, depression, and of course - the worst economy that the rest of the world will likely see in our lifetimes.

I think it's difficult to call Sweden's approach anything but a complete success at this point, and this will become even more clear as time progresses. People are slowly coming around to it - even the WHO said that the world needs to pay attention to Sweden's approach.
TF you talking about. They are 8th worldwide with 366 deaths per million. The only country with a similar population & infection rate as Sweden is Portugal. They have a death per million rate of 121
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since you talked about possibility of re-infection, here is a news that supports your point - "More USS Roosevelt Sailors Test Positive Again".
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020051 ... tive-again

thriftshopper wrote: We don't know of "herd immunity" works for this. No proof or at least firm evidence that you cannot get it a second time.
Masks can reduce spread of COVID-19 by 83.3% and keep economy open, wear one!
*external links and short links are not allowed
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kramer1 wrote: TF you talking about. They are 8th worldwide with 366 deaths per million. The only country with a similar population & infection rate as Sweden is Portugal. They have a death per million rate of 121
Trouble with measuring infection rate is that it is as good as how many people/proportion of population are tested. Just wonder how many cases are slipping under the radar as people don't have symptoms and have not been tested. No. of deaths isn't perfect due to how it's counted (e.g. in many parts of the U.S. it wasn't counted if people died before testing or didn't die in hospital.
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Messerschmitt wrote: The actions taken by most governments are sadistical, for a virus that is barely worse than the flu. Imagine if we would do this for the common cold or influenza. We would be 100 years backwards in technology and discoveries. The actions that were taken, and for the amount of time they have been in place, were only justified if COVID had the current infection rate but the lethality of ebola
For the 'flu, we know what the long-term health implications are (pretty much none for those who recover). Who knows what long-term effects this virus may have. May go dormant in the nerves or some other place and come back decades later, such as shingles with chicken pox, or cause insidious long-term ailments such as Chagas' disease.
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gei wrote: Sweden had virtually no lockdown whatsoever and has a dramatically lower death rate than the badly hit countries in Europe like France, UK, Italy, Spain, etc etc.
so much misinformation in your post. read the article below. it's from may 20, 2020
Sweden overtakes UK with highest coronavirus death rate per capita.
SWEDEN has overtaken the UK, Italy and Belgium to record the highest coronavirus per capita death rate in the world.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... death-rate

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