Investing

Investing Idea - Dividend Growth

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Deal Fanatic
Nov 9, 2013
5885 posts
7465 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
With respect to CJR.B -



They can own all the original content they want, but if no one is buying it they are hooped. The company is facing long term secular headwinds. Moving forward, return to investors will depend on capital allocation by management.
Buy right, hold tight. Keep calm and go long.
Member
Jun 28, 2016
284 posts
151 upvotes
Messerschmitt wrote: Bought CGX 2 months ago when it went bellow 37. Thinking of adding some more
Also thinking of adding a bit more cjr.b

Opinions? Thoughts? I'm a bit concerned when considering the digital content is getting bigger and bigger and people stop going to movies/watching cable.
I recently started a small position in CGX when it dipped into the 33.50 range. I can't speak to when people will stop watching movies, but I think the current valuation is good if their growth strategies are not a compete flop. If they do flop, then $25-30 is probably the right price, which is why this is a small position.

Answering your question about digital revenues is difficult because CJR.b does not separate these from its tv and radio revenues. So, for example, in its Q1 report, it writes that [radio] "Revenues were relatively flat in the first quarter of fiscal 2018 compared to the prior year as gains in local sales were offset by some softness in national sales and digital revenues." They have a number of platforms for delivering tv and radio content to consumers online, but it's hard to say how much success they're having.

Corus' "portfolio of multimedia offerings encompasses 45 specialty television networks, 15 conventional television stations, 39 radio stations and a global content business, digital assets, book publishing, animation software, media and technology services" but there's not a lot of information about how many customers view content online vs through traditional tv services.
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May 17, 2012
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ontario
CJR.B falling further.... 12% dividend
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where I belong
New CJR.B PT are still ~$11
no matter, -4% it goes, $8.73 low, ouch
shoulda dumped (and shorted) at open yesterday
Lesson learned on a bad ER to cut loss fast (can always re-buy)
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May 17, 2012
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jerryhung wrote: New CJR.B PT are still ~$11
no matter, -4% it goes, $8.73 low, ouch
shoulda dumped (and shorted) at open yesterday
Lesson learned on a bad ER to cut loss fast (can always re-buy)
I had a stop loss yesterday and it sold

eventhough my gut says TV/Radio is dying it's tempting to look for a bottom on this and get back in for the dividend.
Deal Addict
Oct 7, 2011
1289 posts
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I had CJR.B before and sold it for profit as it went up.

Now it's back in my rador with the huge drop. But I'm not convinced it's a good price to buy. We all know the ways companies place ads are shifting and the latest shift really hurt CJR.B. The problem is figuring out if those shifts will continue to hurt companies like CJR.B, or if it's oversold and it's a good buy in point.

I like HCG better, especially with the recent drop. It is really undervalued. I believe HCG has a more solid business where the parameters surrounding its business profit, is more contained than the business CJR.B is in.
Member
Aug 20, 2016
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good news for Corus shareowners.
When it reaches $4 Shaw will take it private.
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Dec 14, 2010
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jimmyho56 wrote: Hi Rod, do you have any dividend stocks you suggest for an RESP? I don't see any posts specifically related to dividend stocks for an RESP. Thank you.
On my RESP I only hold growth stocks, since the goal is not to live off the dividends. The timeframe (20 years) is also shorter than a typical account meant for retirement. I will do a few posts regarding some of the growth stocks that I have, and will start that with a recent analysis that someone asked me for, about Shopify. Stay tuned.


Rod
Build a comprehensive portfolio based on Investing and Trading strategies. Check out these threads and join the discussion:
Investing strategy based on dividend growth

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Newbie
Feb 11, 2009
43 posts
28 upvotes
Richmond Hill
Hi Rod,

Can we still add CJR.B around 9?
Thank you.
Member
Mar 6, 2017
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What do you guys think of NVIDIA? it reached $225 today and its basically ATH but I'm considering this stock even at this price I feel it could go over $1000 if this whole cryptocurrency, self driving car thing blows up in the next 5 years. Company looks stable too. I feel like worse comes to worse it just doesn't move that much but I don't see it dropping down...
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dpacto wrote: What do you guys think of NVIDIA? it reached $225 today and its basically ATH but I'm considering this stock even at this price I feel it could go over $1000 if this whole cryptocurrency, self driving car thing blows up in the next 5 years. Company looks stable too. I feel like worse comes to worse it just doesn't move that much but I don't see it dropping down...
Why would drivereless cars and especially AI use GPU vs CPU?
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Dec 14, 2010
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yazon wrote: Hi Rod,

Can we still add CJR.B around 9?
Thank you.
I'm averaging down a bit. Sentiment has been negative for a while, since their revenue is closely tied to earnings, the lower revenue this quarter only reinforces that sentiment that this is a dying business. Corus is a well managed business, with a solid balance sheet, higher margin than their peers in this industry and and enough cash flow to sustain the high yield, with a payout ration of approximately 87%. So I'm not worried about the high dividends (they are sustainable), at least for this year - let's monitor revenue and earnings through FY18, specially on typically strong quarters, like Q2 and Q4.

Remember, 2 years when Corus announced the transformational acquisition of Shaw Media, they stated three financial objectives until their transformation matures. One was to take out $40 million to $50 million of cost in 18 to 24 months: Corus exceeded that significantly, both in terms of the amount and the timing. The second one was stated that Corus was going to de-leverage the balance sheet to 3.5 times by end of fiscal 2017. Corus achieved that a quarter early last year and then they announced their goal to de-leverage it to 3 times for the fiscal 2018 - but then, on this quarter, they announced that they might not achieve the 3 times goal given that revenues on this quarter missed expectations. But they are still making progress, and now are being penalized for setting a goal too aggressive on previous quarter - mostly on factors that they cannot control. The third objective was to maintain a dividend as current level of $1.14 for Class B shares. Management reinforced that they will continue to maintain this objective for Fiscal 2018. My goal is based on income and the growth of that income, so it meets my goals to continue partnering with them until their new strategies give enough fruits to reflect on revenue and earnings growth. But Corus belongs to a business that have been facing several challenges, beyond their control, and only time will tell how they will handle it accordingly. The only way to grow as they used to grow is to adapt and have the strategies in place that can reflect higher revenue if they do a good job following the trend on how content is delivered and doing the right partnerships to monetize this delivery or their own content. That takes time. I will wait at least a year or two before evaluating my partnership with them.


Rod
Build a comprehensive portfolio based on Investing and Trading strategies. Check out these threads and join the discussion:
Investing strategy based on dividend growth

Trading strategy based on Graham principles.
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Dec 14, 2010
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dpacto wrote: What do you guys think of NVIDIA? it reached $225 today and its basically ATH but I'm considering this stock even at this price I feel it could go over $1000 if this whole cryptocurrency, self driving car thing blows up in the next 5 years. Company looks stable too. I feel like worse comes to worse it just doesn't move that much but I don't see it dropping down...
NVDA is a growth stock, and the stock is priced in for their expectation to grow earnings by 47% this year - a bit overvalued considering the earnings growth rate of 39% of the past 3 years and estimated earnings for the next 2 years. They have been exceeding estimates for many quarters in a row, and that fuels overvaluation. However, the market will question its high multiple when earnings slow down or if they disappoint in a future quarter. Earnings are estimated to slow down for FY19 to 16% growth - although it's a good number, it's much smaller than previous growth rate, and the market might question if the current P/E of 50 is justified if earnings is growing 16% that year. I see NVDA as a great company that can turn into a not-so-great investment if you pay too much for it. Hence I'm on it for the short term.

Growth stocks are handled differently in my opinion, you can't treat them like traditional mature companies. There are lots of growth opportunities for stocks trading on Nasdaq exchange, but it's a different dynamic than your typical dividend growth company, specially when it's overvalued. Hence, for growth stocks, I prefer a set of mechanical criteria that deals with fundamentals (more on the sales, revenue and cash flow side, less on earnings) and on technical analysis, to have a controlled exposure of overvaluation, but this enters on other territories tailored to short term investing / swing trading. That's how I'm exposed on the Nasdaq world, as I find that the market doesn't price those companies through the traditional financial methods. BTW, NVDA is one of my holdings on my Nasdaq model, and that's my exposure to them.

So I'd say that it's a great opportunity for the short term and maybe medium term (provided fiscal momentum continues), since they keep exceeding estimates and they check all the financial quality criteria, but given its overvaluation, I wouldn't say that it's a good long term / set-and-forget holding. I will sell them when momentum stops, and might consider a long term partnership once valuation is more attractive.


Rod
Build a comprehensive portfolio based on Investing and Trading strategies. Check out these threads and join the discussion:
Investing strategy based on dividend growth

Trading strategy based on Graham principles.
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Dec 14, 2010
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Chance7652 wrote: Anyone looking at or own NYSE:AMT?
I will research it further - Impressive REIT, with decent Adjusted Funds from Operations number, decent street estimates with a very reliable score from the firms that are covering this REIT. They operate in an interesting niche (communication / tower real estate), where towers are directly exposed to the growth of mobile data demand and the associated efforts to densify wireless networks, but they are relatively sheltered from the high competition of the wireless carriers and cyclicality of the network equipment vendors.

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Rod
Build a comprehensive portfolio based on Investing and Trading strategies. Check out these threads and join the discussion:
Investing strategy based on dividend growth

Trading strategy based on Graham principles.
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Jun 3, 2009
5735 posts
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Montreal
rodbarc wrote: I will research it further - Impressive REIT, with decent Adjusted Funds from Operations number, decent street estimates with a very reliable score from the firms that are covering this REIT. They operate in an interesting niche (communication / tower real estate), where towers are directly exposed to the growth of mobile data demand and the associated efforts to densify wireless networks, but they are relatively sheltered from the high competition of the wireless carriers and cyclicality of the network equipment vendors.

Rod
How does BIP.UN compare then? I very much respect its management whose record speaks for itself.
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Feb 26, 2017
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rodbarc wrote: I will research it further - Impressive REIT, with decent Adjusted Funds from Operations number, decent street estimates with a very reliable score from the firms that are covering this REIT. They operate in an interesting niche (communication / tower real estate), where towers are directly exposed to the growth of mobile data demand and the associated efforts to densify wireless networks, but they are relatively sheltered from the high competition of the wireless carriers and cyclicality of the network equipment vendors.

Image
Thanks Rod. Does the 67% Debt to Cap and the BBB- credit rating worry you at all?
Sr. Member
Mar 14, 2015
833 posts
94 upvotes
Edmonton
Hey Rod,

Does the current ratio of .53 of Cineplex concern you? At these low levels it still appears to be slightly overvalued with a P/E of 30 and they appear to be burning thru cash and need to be borrowing. Any thoughts on this?
Member
Aug 20, 2016
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always thought bell, telus, rogers should spin off their cell towers.
so easy and it would pop the stocks.
rogers new ceo has to do something.
maybe rogers will do it.
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rodbarc wrote: I'm averaging down a bit. Sentiment has been negative for a while, since their revenue is closely tied to earnings, the lower revenue this quarter only reinforces that sentiment that this is a dying business. Corus is a well managed business, with a solid balance sheet, higher margin than their peers in this industry and and enough cash flow to sustain the high yield, with a payout ration of approximately 87%. So I'm not worried about the high dividends (they are sustainable), at least for this year - let's monitor revenue and earnings through FY18, specially on typically strong quarters, like Q2 and Q4.

Remember, 2 years when Corus announced the transformational acquisition of Shaw Media, they stated three financial objectives until their transformation matures. One was to take out $40 million to $50 million of cost in 18 to 24 months: Corus exceeded that significantly, both in terms of the amount and the timing. The second one was stated that Corus was going to de-leverage the balance sheet to 3.5 times by end of fiscal 2017. Corus achieved that a quarter early last year and then they announced their goal to de-leverage it to 3 times for the fiscal 2018 - but then, on this quarter, they announced that they might not achieve the 3 times goal given that revenues on this quarter missed expectations. But they are still making progress, and now are being penalized for setting a goal too aggressive on previous quarter - mostly on factors that they cannot control. The third objective was to maintain a dividend as current level of $1.14 for Class B shares. Management reinforced that they will continue to maintain this objective for Fiscal 2018. My goal is based on income and the growth of that income, so it meets my goals to continue partnering with them until their new strategies give enough fruits to reflect on revenue and earnings growth. But Corus belongs to a business that have been facing several challenges, beyond their control, and only time will tell how they will handle it accordingly. The only way to grow as they used to grow is to adapt and have the strategies in place that can reflect higher revenue if they do a good job following the trend on how content is delivered and doing the right partnerships to monetize this delivery or their own content. That takes time. I will wait at least a year or two before evaluating my partnership with them.


Rod
Thank you for your insight, very helpful
FlyOverMyDoodle wrote: Hey Rod,

Does the current ratio of .53 of Cineplex concern you? At these low levels it still appears to be slightly overvalued with a P/E of 30 and they appear to be burning thru cash and need to be borrowing. Any thoughts on this?
I'm curious about CGX as well. I'm tempted to average down. I'm already down 20% on this :(

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