Regarding Quebecor, I have been fence sitting for years. You guy have any concerns, and I'm not trying to be mean about it, you guys have any concerns Quebecor is one province market?
Cheers
Cheers
Feb 23rd, 2024 10:34 am
Feb 23rd, 2024 11:45 am
They own Freedom mobile now so if anything my concern is more about their profitability for cellular outside of Quebec. I've also got some concerns about their media assets but think they'll do better as its Quebec media. Overall I haven't done great with QBR.B +4% and dividends in 2 years but it looks like pretty good value to me looking at Fastgraphs.rfduser199 wrote: ↑ Regarding Quebecor, I have been fence sitting for years. You guy have any concerns, and I'm not trying to be mean about it, you guys have any concerns Quebecor is one province market?
Cheers
Feb 23rd, 2024 12:18 pm
The methodology doesn’t change. Tons of info still applicable to today. Specific company information changes, and I have been working to offset that diligence to automation.
Feb 23rd, 2024 12:49 pm
Bought your Caribbean retirement island yet?rodbarc wrote: ↑ The methodology doesn’t change. Tons of info still applicable to today. Specific company information changes, and I have been working to offset that diligence to automation.
I am overdue to update my watchlist - majority remains the same, a business cycle lasts 5 to 7 years, and I typically need years of poor business performance (or drastic change of fundamentals) to no longer partner with a business.
Rod
Feb 23rd, 2024 12:53 pm
Feb 23rd, 2024 1:14 pm
thxrodbarc wrote: ↑ The methodology doesn’t change. Tons of info still applicable to today. Specific company information changes, and I have been working to offset that diligence to automation.
I am overdue to update my watchlist - majority remains the same, a business cycle lasts 5 to 7 years, and I typically need years of poor business performance (or drastic change of fundamentals) to no longer partner with a business.
Rod
Feb 23rd, 2024 2:39 pm
I think there are always concerns with an investment and it's good to spend some time thinking about them. Quebecor is obviously heavy in Quebec like you said. They are expanding with Freedom so that will require more capital spending in what's likely to be a higher interest rate environment. But they trade at a reasonable earnings multiple compared to their peers and I like that. A big part of future returns is expectations and it is a lot easier to meet the market demanded multiples when they are in the low range. Their payout is reasonable, again compares favourably to peers, and the dividend has been growing nicely.rfduser199 wrote: ↑ Regarding Quebecor, I have been fence sitting for years. You guy have any concerns, and I'm not trying to be mean about it, you guys have any concerns Quebecor is one province market?
Cheers
Feb 23rd, 2024 3:06 pm
I think protectionism with language policy should be considered as moatCapt. wrote: ↑ I think there are always concerns with an investment and it's good to spend some time thinking about them. Quebecor is obviously heavy in Quebec like you said. They are expanding with Freedom so that will require more capital spending in what's likely to be a higher interest rate environment. But they trade at a reasonable earnings multiple compared to their peers and I like that. A big part of future returns is expectations and it is a lot easier to meet the market demanded multiples when they are in the low range. Their payout is reasonable, again compares favourably to peers, and the dividend has been growing nicely.
On a related note, I've noticed quite a few of my favourite dividend growers are Quebec companies. (Savaria, Alimentation Couche-Tard, Metro, Richelieu to name a few)
Feb 23rd, 2024 3:57 pm
Interesting perspective. I was thinking the opposite that the market could see Quebec as a negative and therefore punish the stock moreso than viewing it as an attractor/beneficial.
Feb 25th, 2024 12:57 am
Feb 25th, 2024 1:49 am
The performance of the Dividend All-Star portfolio is pretty darn good considering the following: They not only beat the index consistently, you can actually take the dividends out of the performance numbers and still beat the index (ie 15.7% annual return if rebalanced monthly - 5.4% dividend returns = 10.3% stock price returns which beats the 6.6% return for the index). You can even be lazy and just rebalance once a year and still get better than index performance. The only real issue is what happens next year... will the Globe and Mail publish an updated list of stocks so that you can rebalance and re-constitute the portfolio using updated data.notenoughsleep wrote: ↑ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investi ... 00-stocks/
Edit why is rfd redirecting to the wrong page?
The Globe’s Dividend All-Stars 2024: Full ratings for 200 stocks
Feb 25th, 2024 7:31 am
I can’t figure out how this all star performance is measured. Do they just pick up those 20 all stars today and back test to 1999 or they checked their all stars list since they published every year and look at future performance?craftsman wrote: ↑ The performance of the Dividend All-Star portfolio is pretty darn good considering the following: They not only beat the index consistently, you can actually take the dividends out of the performance numbers and still beat the index (ie 15.7% annual return if rebalanced monthly - 5.4% dividend returns = 10.3% stock price returns which beats the 6.6% return for the index). You can even be lazy and just rebalance once a year and still get better than index performance. The only real issue is what happens next year... will the Globe and Mail publish an updated list of stocks so that you can rebalance and re-constitute the portfolio using updated data.
Feb 25th, 2024 10:13 am
Feb 25th, 2024 12:29 pm
The vast majority of media based published portfolios are back tested as the back testing allows for tweaking of the methodology - ie how monthly or annual rebalancing changes returns.smartie wrote: ↑ I can’t figure out how this all star performance is measured. Do they just pick up those 20 all stars today and back test to 1999 or they checked their all stars list since they published every year and look at future performance?
G&M has some tricky way to measure their portfolio performance to make it look better than in reality such as John Heinzl’s dividend portfolio.
Feb 25th, 2024 12:33 pm
In theory, it should help returns but I don't believe any of these portfolios take into account possible tax issues - both in paying the actual taxes and the record keeping for the adjusted cost base. Therefore, it may not be worth it to do it frequently.
Feb 25th, 2024 12:39 pm
I guess I just don’t trust those strategies that were built on historical data and then backtest historical data. Seems biased to mecraftsman wrote: ↑ The vast majority of media based published portfolios are back tested as the back testing allows for tweaking of the methodology - ie how monthly or annual rebalancing changes returns.
Back testing isn't really a black eye to a methodology as the average portfolio isn't anywhere close to big enough to affect the market unless of course there is wide spread adoption of the methodology and even then it's questionable if even 1000 small investors can move the market.
Feb 25th, 2024 12:45 pm
It shouldn't be biased really with the exception of it's biased to older data. But if the methodology is just fundamentals based rather than "trends", the results should be the same as the backtesting should have zero predictive abilities.
Feb 25th, 2024 5:45 pm
Real backtest have no survivalship bias, which means it applies the financial rules with the financial data (business data, fundamentals) that you had at that time, and it’s applied at all times.