Investing

Investing Idea - Dividend Growth

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Apr 29, 2012
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Regarding Quebecor, I have been fence sitting for years. You guy have any concerns, and I'm not trying to be mean about it, you guys have any concerns Quebecor is one province market?
Cheers
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Feb 26, 2017
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rfduser199 wrote: Regarding Quebecor, I have been fence sitting for years. You guy have any concerns, and I'm not trying to be mean about it, you guys have any concerns Quebecor is one province market?
Cheers
They own Freedom mobile now so if anything my concern is more about their profitability for cellular outside of Quebec. I've also got some concerns about their media assets but think they'll do better as its Quebec media. Overall I haven't done great with QBR.B +4% and dividends in 2 years but it looks like pretty good value to me looking at Fastgraphs.
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kiasu wrote: wow..lot to read...look like OP stop updating?
The methodology doesn’t change. Tons of info still applicable to today. Specific company information changes, and I have been working to offset that diligence to automation.

I am overdue to update my watchlist - majority remains the same, a business cycle lasts 5 to 7 years, and I typically need years of poor business performance (or drastic change of fundamentals) to no longer partner with a business.


Rod
Build a comprehensive portfolio based on Investing and Trading strategies. Check out these threads and join the discussion:
Investing strategy based on dividend growth

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rodbarc wrote: The methodology doesn’t change. Tons of info still applicable to today. Specific company information changes, and I have been working to offset that diligence to automation.

I am overdue to update my watchlist - majority remains the same, a business cycle lasts 5 to 7 years, and I typically need years of poor business performance (or drastic change of fundamentals) to no longer partner with a business.


Rod
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treva84 wrote: Bought your Caribbean retirement island yet? Face With Stuck-out Tongue And Tightly-closed Eyes
“ Bought your Caribbean retirement islands yet? ”
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rodbarc wrote: The methodology doesn’t change. Tons of info still applicable to today. Specific company information changes, and I have been working to offset that diligence to automation.

I am overdue to update my watchlist - majority remains the same, a business cycle lasts 5 to 7 years, and I typically need years of poor business performance (or drastic change of fundamentals) to no longer partner with a business.


Rod
thx

i just started to read and follow this thread and your blog..
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Sep 2, 2004
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rfduser199 wrote: Regarding Quebecor, I have been fence sitting for years. You guy have any concerns, and I'm not trying to be mean about it, you guys have any concerns Quebecor is one province market?
Cheers
I think there are always concerns with an investment and it's good to spend some time thinking about them. Quebecor is obviously heavy in Quebec like you said. They are expanding with Freedom so that will require more capital spending in what's likely to be a higher interest rate environment. But they trade at a reasonable earnings multiple compared to their peers and I like that. A big part of future returns is expectations and it is a lot easier to meet the market demanded multiples when they are in the low range. Their payout is reasonable, again compares favourably to peers, and the dividend has been growing nicely.

On a related note, I've noticed quite a few of my favourite dividend growers are Quebec companies. (Savaria, Alimentation Couche-Tard, Metro, Richelieu to name a few)
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Capt. wrote: I think there are always concerns with an investment and it's good to spend some time thinking about them. Quebecor is obviously heavy in Quebec like you said. They are expanding with Freedom so that will require more capital spending in what's likely to be a higher interest rate environment. But they trade at a reasonable earnings multiple compared to their peers and I like that. A big part of future returns is expectations and it is a lot easier to meet the market demanded multiples when they are in the low range. Their payout is reasonable, again compares favourably to peers, and the dividend has been growing nicely.

On a related note, I've noticed quite a few of my favourite dividend growers are Quebec companies. (Savaria, Alimentation Couche-Tard, Metro, Richelieu to name a few)
I think protectionism with language policy should be considered as moat

Just look at how many promotions exclude Quebec
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Sep 2, 2004
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smartie wrote: I think protectionism with language policy should be considered as moat

Just look at how many promotions exclude Quebec
Interesting perspective. I was thinking the opposite that the market could see Quebec as a negative and therefore punish the stock moreso than viewing it as an attractor/beneficial.

And before anyone accuses me of being pro-Quebec, I don't even speak French. Face With Tears Of Joy
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The performance of the Dividend All-Star portfolio is pretty darn good considering the following: They not only beat the index consistently, you can actually take the dividends out of the performance numbers and still beat the index (ie 15.7% annual return if rebalanced monthly - 5.4% dividend returns = 10.3% stock price returns which beats the 6.6% return for the index). You can even be lazy and just rebalance once a year and still get better than index performance. The only real issue is what happens next year... will the Globe and Mail publish an updated list of stocks so that you can rebalance and re-constitute the portfolio using updated data.
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craftsman wrote: The performance of the Dividend All-Star portfolio is pretty darn good considering the following: They not only beat the index consistently, you can actually take the dividends out of the performance numbers and still beat the index (ie 15.7% annual return if rebalanced monthly - 5.4% dividend returns = 10.3% stock price returns which beats the 6.6% return for the index). You can even be lazy and just rebalance once a year and still get better than index performance. The only real issue is what happens next year... will the Globe and Mail publish an updated list of stocks so that you can rebalance and re-constitute the portfolio using updated data.
I can’t figure out how this all star performance is measured. Do they just pick up those 20 all stars today and back test to 1999 or they checked their all stars list since they published every year and look at future performance?

G&M has some tricky way to measure their portfolio performance to make it look better than in reality such as John Heinzl’s dividend portfolio.
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I can't say I never have, but over the last two decades it's been a very rare event that I felt the need to rebalance our homemade dividend portfolio in the taxable account.
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smartie wrote: I can’t figure out how this all star performance is measured. Do they just pick up those 20 all stars today and back test to 1999 or they checked their all stars list since they published every year and look at future performance?

G&M has some tricky way to measure their portfolio performance to make it look better than in reality such as John Heinzl’s dividend portfolio.
The vast majority of media based published portfolios are back tested as the back testing allows for tweaking of the methodology - ie how monthly or annual rebalancing changes returns.

Back testing isn't really a black eye to a methodology as the average portfolio isn't anywhere close to big enough to affect the market unless of course there is wide spread adoption of the methodology and even then it's questionable if even 1000 small investors can move the market.
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Stryker wrote: I can't say I never have, but over the last two decades it's been a very rare event that I felt the need to rebalance our homemade dividend portfolio in the taxable account.
In theory, it should help returns but I don't believe any of these portfolios take into account possible tax issues - both in paying the actual taxes and the record keeping for the adjusted cost base. Therefore, it may not be worth it to do it frequently.
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craftsman wrote: The vast majority of media based published portfolios are back tested as the back testing allows for tweaking of the methodology - ie how monthly or annual rebalancing changes returns.

Back testing isn't really a black eye to a methodology as the average portfolio isn't anywhere close to big enough to affect the market unless of course there is wide spread adoption of the methodology and even then it's questionable if even 1000 small investors can move the market.
I guess I just don’t trust those strategies that were built on historical data and then backtest historical data. Seems biased to me
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smartie wrote: I guess I just don’t trust those strategies that were built on historical data and then backtest historical data. Seems biased to me
It shouldn't be biased really with the exception of it's biased to older data. But if the methodology is just fundamentals based rather than "trends", the results should be the same as the backtesting should have zero predictive abilities.

Of course, if you are looking at getting into trends - ie invest in Tesla 10 years ago, backtesting won't help a bit and will actually hurt as trends have nothing to do with fundamentals.
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smartie wrote: I guess I just don’t trust those strategies that were built on historical data and then backtest historical data. Seems biased to me
Real backtest have no survivalship bias, which means it applies the financial rules with the financial data (business data, fundamentals) that you had at that time, and it’s applied at all times.

A backtest to evaluate the price performance of companies that have been growing earnings say at 5% per year or more AND have a price to operating earnings or price to operating cash flow at the same ratio as its current projected growh for the year is not biased because it doesn’t know the future data. It uses the same investing principle as we would do to decide to enter on a company today.

In other words, I am separating backtest based on results / stock price of the past versus results based on the same investing principle of the business, using forecasted data (which at that time wasn’t known), which is guidance data - same principle if we want to start today and don’t have the final results until they happen later.


Rod
Build a comprehensive portfolio based on Investing and Trading strategies. Check out these threads and join the discussion:
Investing strategy based on dividend growth

Trading strategy based on Graham principles.

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