Investing

Investment Banks, Dealers and Bank - Best Trade Ideas for 2018

  • Last Updated:
  • Dec 14th, 2017 2:48 pm
[OP]
Deal Addict
Aug 17, 2008
4482 posts
3727 upvotes

Investment Banks, Dealers and Bank - Best Trade Ideas for 2018

I just noticed that UBS put out their "Macro Trades for 2018." I've attached it. I'll update this thread or you can post your dealers summary ideas and we can see how it all pans out towards the end of Nov and Dec of 2018.

If possible, please put the ideas in text so everyone can use the "Search this thread" function at the top right above the first post on each page. Include a url if possible as well.

Date

* Dec 4/17 UBS Macro Trades for 2018 jpeg attached.

* Dec 12/17 GS "Goldman Is Doubling Down on Its Bullish Commodity Call" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ities-call

* Dec 13/87 Jeffrey Gundlach "Doubleline's Gundlach says best idea for 2018 is commodities" https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/13/doublel ... ities.html
Images
  • UBS Macro Trades for 2018.JPG
Last edited by MrMom on Dec 4th, 2017 8:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
4 replies
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5470 posts
1891 upvotes
Sorry, but I find it not worth the paper its printed
"short US rates vol via 6m strangles on 30y rates" - I bet very few even understand what this means

XLI vs XLU? Continued bet on US expansion? But XLI is way overextended with 24% gain in 2016 and 23% in 2017. With the exception of GE and UTX, everything else trades as huge premium to earnings. Take BA, CAT, HON as examples. CAT P/E is astounding 100. All companies are at full valuation taking next years projected earnings. Duh.
Tax cuts benefiting? Think again - BA effective tax rate 24%, CAT 28%, 3M 28%, UTX 26%, GE 1%

Not saying XLU is any better, but at least it's a conservative/defensive bet. Not cheap by any means, but do find me a decent value
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
[OP]
Deal Addict
Aug 17, 2008
4482 posts
3727 upvotes
Yeah, 99.999% of the ppl here will not find the UBS one useful and 99.9% of Cdn institutional investors (homer's) will only have on the most crowded bond trades going right now, the flattener and over weight credit. But everything starts with one and there will be other ideas put out.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Aug 17, 2008
4482 posts
3727 upvotes
Commodities are the best ideas by Doubleline's Jeff Gundlach & Goldman. It's easy to say GS is talking their book, but "Goldman Turns to Hiring Spree for Commodities Trading Fix", https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rading-fix

Via Forexlive, "If you're trading most commodities, you're pretty much betting on China" http://www.forexlive.com/news/!/if-your ... a-20171212
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
14840 posts
7791 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
Increases in commodities is a classic sign of what happens as we near the end of the bull market along with higher interest rates and inflation. As we are starting to see higher interest rates with wage growth (legislative at least in some provinces) as well as relatively low unemployment, inflation is probably around the corner as more people/companies compete for fewer resources with more money. This should bode well for emerging markets as well as the Canadian/Australian stock markets as well.

Top