January Job Numbers

They were all part time jobs, we had a gain in full time. Not surprising when you do a 20% min wage increase and give protections to part time workers. Probably good for the economy in the end. I doubt it will have an impact on RE, other than some people not being able to make rent next month.

Bank of Canada only increase interest rate when job figure is good; but it is a big shame that they don't decrease the rate when the figure is bad!

We need low interest rate to attract foreign buyer, international students and investor class immigrants. If we maintain high interest rate level, the three types of VIP will not come to Canada.

Takanome wrote: ↑ https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canada- ... -1.3796395

Looks like we are down 88k jobs. Apparently Ontario and Quebec had the largest losses.

How do you think this impacts real estate? Let's keep the discussion focused on greater toronto and vancouver area.

gimegime wrote: ↑ Bank of Canada only increase interest rate when job figure is good; but it is a big shame that they don't decrease the rate when the figure is bad!

We need low interest rate to attract foreign buyer, international students and investor class immigrants. If we maintain high interest rate level, the three types of VIP will not come to Canada.

Damn. How many houses are you trying to flip?

Just when you thought minimum wage would give people an opportunity to put a down payment on a home.

https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/0 ... years.html

Cliffs?

Takanome wrote: ↑ https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canada- ... -1.3796395

Looks like we are down 88k jobs. Apparently Ontario and Quebec had the largest losses.

How do you think this impacts real estate? Let's keep the discussion focused on greater toronto and vancouver area.

Going up because full-time work was up 49k and wage growth at 3.3%...the part timers seasonal workers weren't buying homes

Statistics Canada said the economy added 49,000 full-time positions last month. The survey also detected stronger wage growth in January of 3.3 per cent, which also led some to point out possible connections to Ontario.

gimegime wrote: ↑ Bank of Canada only increase interest rate when job figure is good; but it is a big shame that they don't decrease the rate when the figure is bad!

We need low interest rate to attract foreign buyer, international students and investor class immigrants. If we maintain high interest rate level, the three types of VIP will not come to Canada.

Good.... we have enough already

newby1983 wrote: ↑ Just when you thought minimum wage would give people an opportunity to put a down payment on a home.

https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/0 ... years.html

I don’t think minimum wage workers have been considering buying a home in Toronto in the last few years, and that situation is likely not going to change for a long time. Minimum wage is never realistically going to rise enough to allow that. That is not the objective of minimum wage either, if you think about it.

Takanome wrote: ↑ I don’t think minimum wage workers have been considering buying a home in Toronto in the last few years, and that situation is likely not going to change for a long time. Minimum wage is never realistically going to rise enough to allow that. That is not the objective of minimum wage either, if you think about it.

Minumum wage workers who just lost their job gonna be worried about how they are going to be paying their skyrocketing rent.

Jan is just the tip of the iceberg on the min wage workers job losses.

cartfan123 wrote: ↑ Minumum wage workers who just lost their job gonna be worried about how they are going to be paying their skyrocketing rent.

Jan is just the tip of the iceberg on the min wage workers job losses.

That's a good point.. rent is going to be difficult for those who lost jobs especially with the rising costs from home and literally every other expense.

I personally believe in social welfare but this time, I think they raised the bar way too quickly (minimum wage increase should have been more gradual not like a buck increase a year). With rapid change in technology, retails will turn to autonomous shops (i.e. Amazon Go) and will be operating with minimal human supervision (=more job loss). I am afraid that this will have domino effect to our economy and ultimate our housing market.

"The asserters are guessing. The data simply aren’t reliable enough to do anything else"

"Rather than a precipitous drop in economic activity, the figures suggest the jobs data at the end of 2017 exaggerated somewhat the economy’s strength. Many economists assumed that was the case."

"As for the effects of Ontario’s new minimum wage, it simply is too soon to say whether the decline in January was the result of a revolt by employers."

To some extent, the drop in part-time employment reflects a migration to more secure employment. The number of Ontario residents between the prime working ages of 25 and 54 who said they had full time jobs increased by 29,200 in January, and was about 46,000 higher than a year earlier."

"And overall hours worked were little changed from December, suggesting output was unaffected. So maybe the higher minimum wage destroyed some part-time work, but there’s just as much evidence that it had no impact on the broader economy. In fact, Ontario looks better than it has in years."

"The unemployment rate stayed below six per cent for a third consecutive month in January, matching a streak that has happened only once before in records that go back to 1976. That’s a sign of strength, as a jobless rate that low suggests the economy is operating near “full employment,” or the level at which economists estimate that additional hiring would begin to put upward pressure on inflation.

"Another sign of strength: The average hourly wage jumped 3.3 per cent in January from a year earlier, the biggest increase since 2015 and the fifth consecutive month that wages gained in excess of two per cent on an annual basis."

source: http://business.financialpost.com/news/ ... ch-into-it


A deeper look at the numbers: they don't look so bad according to National Bank of Canada analysis.


"The drop in headcounts led to a one-tick increase in the unemployment rate to 5.9%, an increase that was partially offset by a three ticks decline in labour force participation (to 65.5%).

--- It looks like people just stopped looking for jobs and left the job market because minimum wage went higher?
---So this piece of data contradicts the case that higher minimum wage leads to job losses?

"The massive loss of part-time jobs in Ontario (59K of which 24K among youth) is coinciding with the 20% rise minimum wage that took effect this January."

----May not have much of impact on RE from the part time job losses. Total of 35k part time loss for adults, i dont think teenagers are buying houses.

"All in all, the labour market remains very tight as shown by a 6-month annualized jump of 4.8% in hourly earnings."

----this could impact the real estate market if interest rates go higher and if wages keep going up this high, the BOC could raise interest rates higher.


Source: https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/r ... s-jobs.pdf

no impact,
MW earner are way off from R/E in most of the market anyway.

rapashoo wrote: ↑ I personally believe in social welfare but this time, I think they raised the bar way too quickly (minimum wage increase should have been more gradual not like a buck increase a year). With rapid change in technology, retails will turn to autonomous shops (i.e. Amazon Go) and will be operating with minimal human supervision (=more job loss). I am afraid that this will have domino effect to our economy and ultimate our housing market.

Most people in retail arent buying RE anyways - if anything I suspect rentals will become only stronger in the future...

This is actually good news for the housing market, BoC will put off another rate hike in March if February numbers is disappointing as well.

Rothesay wrote: ↑ This is actually good news for the housing market, BoC will put off another rate hike in March if February numbers is disappointing as well.

I think they decided to hold on the March rates already (practically guaranteed). The feds didn’t touch their rates, so Canada doesn’t have any particular reason to raise rates. Add that to the fact that our economy is not doing as well as many thought, the rates are going to be frozen next time for sure.