Real Estate

Jobs are booming. economy is doing well. BoC raised rates due to future strength...why would housing go down?

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  • Sep 1st, 2017 8:09 am
[OP]
Banned
Feb 13, 2017
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Jobs are booming. economy is doing well. BoC raised rates due to future strength...why would housing go down?

I am trying to figure out if everything is heading in a positive direction in the economy...and we could potentially be in a boom in 1-2 years...

Why would housing crash as some people are suggesting?

Is your reasoning just interest rates? Even if rates go up 1-1.5% in 2 years, we are still getting fairly cheap mortgages no?

Intuitively, wouldn't a boom mean prices would continue to rise since people have money and jobs?
165 replies
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
11503 posts
14751 upvotes
Toronto
Don't forget the millions of min wage workers who are getting a 25% raise in 4.5 months.

People who aren't doing well only seek out negative news to make themselves feel better. They turn a blind eye to the boom that is happening around them. Hundreds of thousands of people in Toronto are experiencing massive income growth. Economy is picking up and some people only want to read Garth's end of days blog.
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Oct 25, 2016
48 posts
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Housing is emotional and asset which is usually acquired with the help of debt from lender. and Debt comes with interest payments, if you have to pay more interest you will want to pay less for asset itself.
Deal Fanatic
Dec 5, 2009
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Because current house valuations are in a bubble, fuelled on massive debt, and far removed from fundamentals like economic growth, jobs, and income.
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Nov 2, 2013
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Edmonton, AB
Rfd dream. Interest rates rise to infinity. Everyone starts losing their homes. Jump out of mom's basement to get a deal. Get rich as the market rebounds.
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[OP]
Banned
Feb 13, 2017
951 posts
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fdl wrote: Because current house valuations are in a bubble, fuelled on massive debt, and far removed from fundamentals like economic growth, jobs, and income.
But we are still cheaper than other comparable large cities in the world (UU cities, European cities and even cities in Asia).

Why is it not fair to think a detached would cost $1.5-$2M or even more in Toronto?

Why does it have to go back down to $800k?
Deal Addict
Oct 13, 2005
1384 posts
106 upvotes
crocp8 wrote: But we are still cheaper than other comparable large cities in the world (UU cities, European cities and even cities in Asia).

Why is it not fair to think a detached would cost $1.5-$2M or even more in Toronto?

Why does it have to go back down to $800k?
Because incomes haven't drastically increased and household debt is at its highest levels in decades.
Sr. Member
Apr 17, 2017
797 posts
579 upvotes
crocp8 wrote: But we are still cheaper than other comparable large cities in the world (UU cities, European cities and even cities in Asia).

Why is it not fair to think a detached would cost $1.5-$2M or even more in Toronto?

Why does it have to go back down to $800k?
In my view, our prices are reasonable on a global level. Should be interesting to see how much more energy is left in this bull market. Who knows, we might well be seeing new highs this year or next.

Don't forget, Vancouver is still more expensive than Toronto and look what's happening there. Up, up, up!
[OP]
Banned
Feb 13, 2017
951 posts
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akademiks wrote: Because incomes haven't drastically increased and household debt is at its highest levels in decades.
Do people in Vancouver, Moscow, Munich, NYC, London, Paris make that much more than us?

How can they justify $2M+ homes as "normal" prices, but we cant?
Deal Fanatic
Dec 5, 2009
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elpresidente wrote:
Don't forget, Vancouver is still more expensive than Toronto and look what's happening there. Up, up, up!
Yup, Up, up, up.....

Image
Sr. Member
Apr 17, 2017
797 posts
579 upvotes
crocp8 wrote: Do people in Vancouver, Moscow, Munich, NYC, London, Paris make that much more than us?

How can they justify $2M+ homes as "normal" prices, but we cant?
They don't, that's the point about world class cities. It attracts lots of money and regular income people can't afford to live in any of those places either. The Golden Horseshoe area is in that club now and so many people seem to think we snuck in and will eventually be found out, with prices crashing back to 1990s levels.
[OP]
Banned
Feb 13, 2017
951 posts
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elpresidente wrote: Lol, Zolo, the official real estate database.
I love how the bears always post zolo figures, then when the monthly results come out, its nothing even remotely close...

I think last month Zolo had detached homes in RH pegged at like a 75% decline....ended up being like 4% lol
Deal Fanatic
Dec 5, 2009
5740 posts
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crocp8 wrote: I love how the bears always post zolo figures, then when the monthly results come out, its nothing even remotely close...

I think last month Zolo had detached homes in RH pegged at like a 75% decline....ended up being like 4% lol
Now you are just flat out making up stuff. Nice.
[OP]
Banned
Feb 13, 2017
951 posts
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fdl wrote: Now you are just flat out making up stuff. Nice.
Exaggerating:-)
Deal Fanatic
Dec 5, 2009
5740 posts
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elpresidente wrote: Lol, Zolo, the official real estate database.
Please do share the "official" data showing a median home price increase from May to June. No HPI benchmarks.

I won't hold my breath.
Deal Fanatic
Dec 6, 2006
5408 posts
1657 upvotes
Toronto
fdl wrote: Because current house valuations are in a bubble, fuelled on massive debt, and far removed from fundamentals like economic growth, jobs, and income.
Sure... but how about the fundamentals like:

- population growth in GTA that needs more RE. Despite the *percentage* of working age population may decrease, the numbers are still predicted to increase, due to overall on-going and predicted increase in population.

- in Toronto, only <40% population lives in single detached. (Table 2 @ http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recen ... 05-eng.cfm). 40% is less than half. So is it even relevant to insist on weighing *average/median* income against average single detached RE price? In addition, 40% is the people already living in single detached. Now think about new builds, and new population from growth. Do you think we even have close to 40% new-built housings that're single detached?
This 40% number is only going to drop. When will it be a reality that the "average" income person is simply NOT buying the "average" detached?
Deal Addict
Oct 6, 2015
2463 posts
1385 upvotes
The economy is not booming, RE prices are collapsing, CPI is near deflation (and actually deflating month over month). The CAD$ rise will kill off any vibrancy remaining in the exporters. Oil prices are incredibly weak. The hike was completely unjustified, and a more appropriate response would have been cuts.
Sr. Member
Apr 17, 2017
797 posts
579 upvotes
fdl wrote: Please do share the "official" data showing a median home price increase from May to June. No HPI benchmarks.

I won't hold my breath.
Official data

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