Market Timing - Skill or Luck?
The article below has one good example for a market timing model based on economic data to buy just a few ETFs and rotate them as conditions change.
Backtests results are a nice 12% annualized with -25% worst drawdown being invested all times as per the same rules - no hedging required.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3982436 ... -investors
This model is also publicly available to portfolio123 members, so anyone can implement it.
Focus on the rules and reasons behind, not on the result itself (you want positive alpha, not a pretty backtest).
This approach takes emotions, gut-feeling and luck out of the equation and can producesomething where you can actually put real money down without worrying when drawdown occurs - because it's been backed up by a solid and tested idea.
In my opinion, this is how market timing can work. Consistently. And no gambling. The article above is just one idea. There are tons more that could be applied to help one minimize drawdowns.