Investing

Market timing step 2: going back in

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 23rd, 2020 5:29 am
[OP]
Deal Addict
User avatar
Aug 4, 2014
2625 posts
2300 upvotes
Toronto, ON

Market timing step 2: going back in

As most of us have heard, market timing doesn’t work since you have to be right twice: when selling and when buying. Which is next to impossible to do consistently. Yet looks like many of us keep questioning this wisdom - and want to be right at least this one time. Would love to hear from those who will be re-entering the stock market in 2020 for long-term holds - and will post my own purchases.

For the record, I turned bear-ish in the summer 2019 - here’s my post from Recession incoming! (part 2) thread:

Aug 7th, 2019 7:02 pm
freilona wrote: ..And yeah, I’ve been witnessing people going to cash in correction/crash anticipation almost every year in 5+ years since joining the forum, while we enjoyed decent returns..

..yet if I look closer at our portfolio returns, most of the gains came from the US. Developed countries and emerging markets ETFs that we hold are flat at best (not counting the dividends, but I’m pretty sure GICs would’ve provided similar if not better returns) Canadian ETFs did a bit better, except small and mid caps one that I was buying in my TFSA. And I wish I've sold a handful of remaining loser stocks [Upd. Have sold in the fall] - or, better yet, followed your favourite advice and never bought them in the first place Face With Tears Of Joy

Last year was the first negative year since I started tracking portfolio returns in 2014. -2.2%, no biggie, so I kept our equities allocation high. But once we’ve got back to where we were last summer, I was happy that I’ve got assigned when my covered calls expired. As I’d be struggling to pull the trigger myself..

So I sold all VTI and half of IEMG in my RRSP and XLF (US financials ETF) in husband’s. Now our allocation is closer to the proper 40/60 balanced portfolio. Yes, I did it before this dip - kudos to @alexcalvado who did it probably a year too soon.. But, then again, as of July 31st our portfolio’s 1 year return was only 2.5%. Yeah-yeah, YTD was 9.7% and 5 years 7.7%.

But, given the size of the portfolio (enough for at least me to retire ;)) - do I want to keep the remaining equities allocation intact if a chance to see them drop seems higher than them beating GICs in the next 5 years? Honestly - I don’t know. But was tempted to also sell HXT in the non-reg account - and shove the money into 3% 15 months GIC while People’s Trust still had this special.. [Upd. Have done in September]
At this point, I only need to decide when to repurchase IEMG and VTI in my RRSP. It’s just 10%+ of the overall portfolio, but want to use it as yet another “learning opportunity” of sane decision making in crazy times :)
1082 replies
Newbie
Jul 15, 2013
84 posts
31 upvotes
Saint-Albert
Following. New to investing, have started nibbling the last 2 weeks but still about 75% cash. Building a looooong term portfolio, mostly ETF investing so far.
Jr. Member
Apr 25, 2019
156 posts
168 upvotes
Ontario
AAPL, MSFT, V, BA, TSLA, SHOP, AMD, QCOM, DIS, CRM, BYND, ENBRIDGE, AC, TD- what you guys think for next 5 years hold (long term) ?
Banned
Jan 20, 2017
584 posts
145 upvotes
I have re-entered in a big way and intend to be fully invested if market continues to drop till it hits 50% low from all time high.
Have bought QQQ SPY DIA ITOT BA FB AAPL V MA VTI VYM DVY XIC XIU VUN VFV ALL BIG 5 CAN BANKS ENB .........
You have been around for a while, why doubt or worry?
Jr. Member
Dec 26, 2019
146 posts
82 upvotes
I’m about 40% cash right now and haven’t put a cent in yet. Most true recessions (not the 2018 dip) last over the span of months. I sold many of my more speculative stocks a couple of weeks ago despite taking a 5-10% loss on them. Now I’m only holding stocks that I want to hold for the next 30 years (albeit too much oil and pipelines for my liking). I’d rather miss some of the rebound (which is usually slower) than catch a falling knife.
Member
Jan 14, 2012
382 posts
100 upvotes
Oshawa
jaguaar wrote: I have re-entered in a big way and intend to be fully invested if market continues to drop till it hits 50% low from all time high.
Have bought QQQ SPY DIA ITOT BA FB AAPL V MA VTI VYM DVY XIC XIU VUN VFV ALL BIG 5 CAN BANKS ENB .........
You have been around for a while, why doubt or worry?
Guess you havent been following the Repo operations last few months
Sr. Member
Feb 13, 2008
519 posts
220 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
From past experience markets may go down another ten to fifteen percent from here so I will wait and see.
Sr. Member
Feb 13, 2008
519 posts
220 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
From past experience markets may go down another ten to fifteen percent from here so I will wait and see.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Oct 14, 2015
1149 posts
766 upvotes
In July 2019 Rick Ackerman wrote a short article about DOW blow-off top.
I've been saving it for times like these, when it's more believable.

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1563192061.php

He was expecting DOW to top by late summer or early autumn, then a possible 50% drop.

That would set DOW back 5 years (not a prediction).

DOW weekly: http://schrts.co/HUisQpRb
Banned
Jan 20, 2017
584 posts
145 upvotes
Supperfly wrote: Guess you havent been following the Repo operations last few months
I certainly haven't. Can you please enlighten me a bit?
Sr. Member
User avatar
Dec 28, 2010
617 posts
273 upvotes
reversi wrote: I’m about 40% cash right now and haven’t put a cent in yet. Most true recessions (not the 2018 dip) last over the span of months. I sold many of my more speculative stocks a couple of weeks ago despite taking a 5-10% loss on them. Now I’m only holding stocks that I want to hold for the next 30 years (albeit too much oil and pipelines for my liking). I’d rather miss some of the rebound (which is usually slower) than catch a falling knife.
I left 40% in cash but other than that I'm in the same boat, lost 11% so far, primarily because I decided not to sell anything. Have you posted your portfolio somewhere?
Do you want to meet the love of your life? Look in the mirror. | Byron Katie
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Jun 19, 2009
5961 posts
1785 upvotes
Scarborough
I'm not sure why technicals work in a time of panic and hysteria, the market will be moved by headlines and news. The market suddenly won't stop going up or down just because it reaches a technical level IMO.
Jr. Member
Nov 10, 2003
195 posts
574 upvotes
When the US locks down in about 2 weeks I will be buying.
Jr. Member
Dec 26, 2019
146 posts
82 upvotes
VESTEGAARD wrote: I left 40% in cash but other than that I'm in the same boat, lost 11% so far, primarily because I decided not to sell anything. Have you posted your portfolio somewhere?
I haven’t posted my portfolio anywhere. I own about 25 large caps that are considered dividend stocks. Banks, oil, utilities, magma, Empire, CTC, etc etc. It’s somewhat similar to the portfolio in the Dividend Growth thread
[OP]
Deal Addict
User avatar
Aug 4, 2014
2625 posts
2300 upvotes
Toronto, ON
I’m of course very tempted to repurchase half today - but I always “rush in”, so trying to wait this time.. :)

Top

Thread Information

There is currently 1 user viewing this thread. (0 members and 1 guest)