Investing

Market timing step 2: going back in

  • Last Updated:
  • Mar 23rd, 2022 1:09 am
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May 2, 2019
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yvrbanker wrote: Bought XBB yesterday as planned @ 30.72. The published NAV for yesterday is 32.38. 5% discount is way too good for a bond ETF. This is a short term trade though, I'll likely cash out as soon as the price gets in line with the NAV.
yvrbanker wrote: XBB is on sale again. Got some more at 29.24. Yesterday's NAV was 32.03.
Out @ 31.50 for a quick 5.5% profit (my avg price was 29.90, also caught a monthly distribution). Yesterday's NAV was 31.79, close enough. I know it's not an exact science, but also shouldn't over-analyze when there is an inefficiency to exploit. As XBB holds at least 70% in government bonds, it's hard to imagine it could justifiably lose 10% of its value days after major interest rate cuts buy BoC. Corporate bonds were a wild card, which didn't mean XBB price was justified.

What happened I think, when the underlying corporate bonds had no liquidity or even no market, the ETF was still somewhat liquid and marketable. While you couldn't necessarily buy an individual bond for dirt cheap due to huge spreads (and didn't know what it was worth), the spread for XBB stayed reasonable. The sell orders drove down both bid and offer to the levels that implied the "worst case" scenario for corporate bonds. So, it could be statistically profitable to load on the ETF even as the market didn't figure out the fair price of all the underlying bonds.
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Feb 5, 2017
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Charles wrote: isn't SNC the one that had the bribery scandal...did they get a pass...all ok now?
Yeap SNC went all the way down to 16$ (from 50$+) because of the scandal. As soon as they were cleared (they had to pay a fine but that's it), stock went up to around 28$.
Last earnings report was good and despite COVID, went over 32$. Now it's back to 21$ because it was dumped with everything else (low around 18$).
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Don't have the conviction to buy 100% equity Fund or ETF,
but will start adding today to a balanced Fund
and keep adding on every significant down-day.

U.S. only - not Canadian.
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Aug 4, 2014
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Keeping my IEMG and VTI orders (200 shares each, 40% off ATH) from March 18th intact for now :)
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freilona wrote: Keeping my IEMG and VTI orders (200 shares each, 40% off ATH) from March 18th intact for now :)
I'll be buying 2,000 quantities of VXC if it drops to $32 or less. I'll wait until tomorrow to do so.

Market timing is fun.

Hey, this is my 1,000th post!
"You don’t need to sacrifice stability, common sense, and comfort if a 1% bond still lets you achieve your financial goals." M. Housel
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Mar 21, 2013
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TuxedoBlack wrote: I'll be buying 2,000 quantities of VXC if it drops to $32 or less. I'll wait until tomorrow to do so.

Market timing is fun.

Hey, this is my 1,000th post!
You're at a good discount but I still think you are quite early to the party, I'd consider doing a portion for now and DCA.

Are you expecting it to turn around in the next couple weeks? I'm like @freilona and had some orders set up for -40% ATH.

I have about $200k in cash now waiting
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Blubbs wrote: You're at a good discount but I still think you are quite early to the party, I'd consider doing a portion for now and DCA.

Are you expecting it to turn around in the next couple weeks? I'm like @freilona and had some orders set up for -40% ATH.

I have about $200k in cash now waiting
I do not know what the markets will do over the next little while. Personally speaking, we will experience a major downturn over the next few months but there is no way to definitively know.

Therefore, DCA might be a better strategy. I'm still buying regularly on my registered accounts. I haven't cashed anything out yet as that's a fool's game. But I've HELOC available to use if the situation calls for it.
"You don’t need to sacrifice stability, common sense, and comfort if a 1% bond still lets you achieve your financial goals." M. Housel
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Mar 4, 2009
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Totally forgot about BAM.A stock split and was confused for a second why the chart showed
BAM.A $41.49 Up 5.3%
I was thinking did I miss another 30% drop? Face With Tears Of Joy
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Nov 16, 2013
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GTA
But as per your signature- VXC is not simple Grinning Face With Smiling EyesGrinning Face With Smiling Eyes
TuxedoBlack wrote: I'll be buying 2,000 quantities of VXC if it drops to $32 or less. I'll wait until tomorrow to do so.

Market timing is fun.

Hey, this is my 1,000th post!
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Aug 21, 2007
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last_sd wrote: Totally forgot about BAM.A stock split and was confused for a second why the chart showed
BAM.A $41.49 Up 5.3%
I was thinking did I miss another 30% drop? Face With Tears Of Joy
Ahh i knew something seemed off about the price
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vivmk20 wrote: But as per your signature- VXC is not simple Grinning Face With Smiling EyesGrinning Face With Smiling Eyes
I need to update my signature to reflect my leveraging strategy. LOL.
"You don’t need to sacrifice stability, common sense, and comfort if a 1% bond still lets you achieve your financial goals." M. Housel
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Aug 17, 2008
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Berkshire Hathaway sells part of Delta, Southwest airline stakes

"According to regulatory filings, Berkshire sold nearly 13 million Delta shares for about $314 million and roughly 2.3 million Southwest shares for about $74 million."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busines ... ne-stakes/

I've attached the regulatory filings.
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Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
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Jan 6, 2015
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MrMom wrote: Berkshire Hathaway sells part of Delta, Southwest airline stakes

"According to regulatory filings, Berkshire sold nearly 13 million Delta shares for about $314 million and roughly 2.3 million Southwest shares for about $74 million."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busines ... ne-stakes/

I've attached the regulatory filings.
wondering whether this is some kind requirement because both under 10% now , I believe
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Jul 7, 2004
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reps001 wrote: wondering whether this is some kind requirement because both under 10% now , I believe
From what I read insider trading laws/rules if you are over 10%. But what I don't get is why did he buy that much in the first place if this is the case?
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baz5 wrote: From what I read insider trading laws/rules if you are over 10%. But what I don't get is why did he buy that much in the first place if this is the case?
Maybe some bargaining idea with government aid in airline now
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Jul 19, 2003
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credit to @bLuPhYrE in other thread, posted the IMF said some stark warnings:
https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/ ... ial-crisis

That doesn't look good. I think its common sense now with all these experts weighing in that the bottom could be farther below. At least, we have time on our side to think about when we want to buy in while all the damage is growing.

I'd love to find out what is exactly the bottom to go all-in invest like Germack, then start a thread a few years later saying how not timing is the best and just keep buying Face With Tears Of Joy
hi!
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Oct 26, 2007
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masterhapposai wrote: credit to @bLuPhYrE in other thread, posted the IMF said some stark warnings:
https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/ ... ial-crisis

That doesn't look good. I think its common sense now with all these experts weighing in that the bottom could be farther below. At least, we have time on our side to think about when we want to buy in while all the damage is growing.

I'd love to find out what is exactly the bottom to go all-in invest like Germack, then start a thread a few years later saying how not timing is the best and just keep buying Face With Tears Of Joy
i really think the optimism of the stimulus is wearing off. If we had seen states announce their peaks this or next week, we perhaps could see the market stabilize a bit. However, I only see this extended for the next few months, and the economic ramifications are going to be immense.

earnings are coming up, just be ready.
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Dec 26, 2019
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I don’t know how well the market has Ben able to price in the impact of the entire world shutting down for a couple of months. It’s ramifications are extremely complex. The economy can’t just start up again, and I bet a lot will have a saving mentality in the short term.

I’m not a perma-bear, but similar to past recessions, I do believe the 2nd drop will be worse than the first (and held onto about 80% of my dry powder)

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