Investing

Market timing step 2: going back in

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  • Oct 31st, 2020 12:32 pm
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komodor wrote: Invest in ADR of countries with no withholding tax (UK, Brazil, India, etc.). See here for some ideas.
I just went with some telus. not sure really what to do. Im hoping usd goes back up so I can exit.
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kilburn305 wrote: I just went with some telus. not sure really what to do. Im hoping usd goes back up so I can exit.
Yep, that works too investing in Canadian dual listed stock Smiling Face With Sunglasses
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Is anyone nervous about a potential second wave? They have been foreshadowing this for a while. If it hits another March situation it would be great to sell up before the hit and buy back in cheap, but its all heresay I guess.
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CupOfCats wrote: Is anyone nervous about a potential second wave? They have been foreshadowing this for a while. If it hits another March situation it would be great to sell up before the hit and buy back in cheap, but its all heresay I guess.
Some people are still waiting to get back in after they sold everything in 2008 during the Great Financial Crisis. This might finally be their chance to get back into the market. Personally I don't engage in market timing. See my signature.
I solemnly swear, to never assume I have an inkling at which direction the market will head, and to never make any investments based on a timing strategy.
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@Charles FWIW



The chart below shows the UST 2s30s spread. The spike down in March is the night the US bond market almost collapsed.

Someone could create an alert to when this spread became too tight as a sign that there might be problems in other financial markets.

At the same time, any curve steepening might also hurt other financial markets, so one could create an alert for that too.

Some conditional formatting like thisVertical Traffic Lightwould work.
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Sold 50% during Dec, avoided the big crash, bought 25% back in. I doubled the amount in my accounts too recently so I'm just as screwed as you guys too Loudly Crying Face

What do??!
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lawonga wrote: Sold 50% during Dec, avoided the big crash, bought 25% back in. I doubled the amount in my accounts too recently so I'm just as screwed as you guys too Loudly Crying Face

What do??!
Well we have less than 5% of cash in our investment accounts now, so don’t feel particularly screwed if the markets keep going up - and high %-age of FI to not worry much if they drop :) August is almost over, but there’s still hope for seasonal volatility in September - and then pre/post election :)

My favourite TA has 20% cash in his portfolios ATM:
Market outlook

Aaron asks if I am still holding cash with markets at new highs. I’ll expand on that question by adding…if so, why?

To start, I am holding 20% cash in both the ValueTrend Equity Platform, and even in our “ValueTrend aggressive Growth” Platform. Here is why:

- Most of the indicators that make up the nearer-termed market outlook factors of my Bear-o-meter have been suggesting flat/lower stock prices short- to medium-term. That said, the longer termed outlook is bullish due to chart patterns, moving averages, cumulative moneyflow etc.
- Seasonally, markets can be more volatile in August and September than most other months. True, seasonal patterns have not mattered much this year, but there is always the potential for a return to normal.
- Most market indices are overbought on the daily charts, and getting closer to overbought on weekly charts (momentum indicators).
- One of my worries is the polarization between the extremely skewed preference for tech stocks which looked to have stalled by late June, especially relative to value, dividend stocks, industrial’s and financials. The “market” indices like the SPX have been led by stay-at-home and tech. If they correct, they will influence all stocks – albeit less so for value etc – as I discussed here.
- Market optimism is at an extreme level (a contrarian signal). Especially by market participants who are traditionally “wrong” more often than right when markets reach extreme levels. For example, small options traders net speculative activity is the most extreme since 2007. According to Sentimentrader, when premiums are considered, it is by far the most extreme ever. Similarly, smart money/dumb money (courtesy www.sentimentrader.com) is getting to dangerous levels. Basically, this indicator pits smart investors like institutions and large commercial hedgers against mom & pop investors. Smart money is on average only 35% confident in the current market outlook, whereas dumb money is 80% sure that things can only keep going up.
https://www.valuetrend.ca/ask-me-anythi ... rs-part-3/
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Image

this looks weird. these monthly bars are unprecedented.
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freilona wrote: Well we have less than 5% of cash in our investment accounts now, so don’t feel particularly screwed if the markets keep going up - and high %-age of FI to not worry much if they drop :) August is almost over, but there’s still hope for seasonal volatility in September - and then pre/post election :)

My favourite TA has 20% cash in his portfolios ATM:



https://www.valuetrend.ca/ask-me-anythi ... rs-part-3/
what do you think of ignoring the US market entirely and going full Canada dividend?
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kilburn305 wrote: what do you think of ignoring the US market entirely and going full Canada dividend?
For how long? :) I can see that for retirees who downsized and need to invest the proceeds for income in the non-reg Account. But if your main goal is portfolio growth with years till retirement, I’d do what @Shaun80 advocates and go all in US tech instead - at last until the techno music lasts.. :)
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If I didn't read other threads - I'd be happy with our portfolio performance consistency.. but I think I'm content :)

Trailing portfolio return (time-weighted return, comparable return)

Portfolio return as of 31/08/2020
1 month 1.2%
3 months 4.8%
6 months 5.5%
YTD 3.5%
1 year 8.5%
3 years* 7.5%
5 years* 8.3%

* Annual compound return
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freilona wrote: @MrMom , I was itching to sell CSU-T yesterday, but it didn’t get just a bit to my +30% target sell price, and of course closed down almost 5% today, which I’m sure won’t feel lucky next week.. Face With Tears Of Joy
MrMom wrote: @freilona If I was as smart as you, I wouldn't be worried unless it breaks below the current range. Chart attached.
Cdn I.T. just not getting the US FOMO. I did a drill down tonight when I noticed the impolite chart.

Image

TSE Heatmap by sector: https://www.barchart.com/ca/stocks/market-performance
TSX S&P Sectors - Information Technology: https://www.barchart.com/ca/stocks/indi ... erDir=desc
Images
  • Stock Market & Sector Performance.JPG
  • Constellation Software Inc (CSU.TO).JPG
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Nov 27, 2019
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freilona wrote: If I didn't read other threads - I'd be happy with our portfolio performance consistency.. but I think I'm content :)

Trailing portfolio return (time-weighted return, comparable return)

Portfolio return as of 31/08/2020
1 month 1.2%
3 months 4.8%
6 months 5.5%
YTD 3.5%
1 year 8.5%
3 years* 7.5%
5 years* 8.3%

* Annual compound return
Face With Tears Of Joy Same here. I was very proud on my average yearly return of 8.5% when I saw people taking about some hundreds % returns... Then I played some music, forget about it and continued to enjoy my Excel sheets Face With Tears Of JoyFace With Tears Of Joy

Btw. I tried Passiv and found it OK. Honestly, wouldn’t pay 100$ for it but as QT costumer you get it for free, so I could recommend it. Thumbs Up Sign
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MrMom wrote: Cdn I.T. just not getting the US FOMO. I did a drill down tonight when I noticed the impolite chart.
I think I’m ready to appreciate TSX stocks for their biggest strength - the dividends - and will sell CSU to compensate for some of AC losses “eventually” (both in my TFSA - such a waste of tax-free room.. sigh)
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florenntina wrote: Btw. I tried Passiv and found it OK. Honestly, wouldn’t pay 100$ for it but as QT costumer you get it for free, so I could recommend it. Thumbs Up Sign
It allows you to link your husband’s accounts as well, not just your own, right? I love my spreadsheets, but maybe it’s time to automate.. :)

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