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Market timing step 2: going back in

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Aug 4, 2014
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freilona wrote: K, let’s see if stonks really only go up these days (and for how much longer Smiling Face With Sunglasses) I didn’t have any ideas of my own, so decided to use Bruce Campbell’s Top Picks. After all, his Past Picks were impressive ;)

Added them to my Sharesight portfolio (with zero commissions, like if I had some “play money” at wealthsimple trade), December 8th closing prices:

Good natured Products Inc GDNP.CVE 1000 x $1.22 = $1,220
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd TVE.TSE 1000 x $1 = $1,000
Dye & Durham Ltd DND.TSE 30 x $35.79 = $1,073.70

(Disclaimer: paper trade, just for fun, don’t try this at home without your own DD yadayada :))
freilona wrote: Lets see if “it’s different this time” (the one that I liked the most, GDNP, is up almost 77% in the last 5 days!! So I wouldn’t have bought it for real :))
So, one week later the one I liked the most (as a business) is so far the only loser:

GDNP -27%
TVE +37%
DND +24%

Watched a bunch of other “wild stocks”, almost bought NUMI, but this is definitely “not my game”.. :)
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Aug 17, 2008
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MrMom wrote: Ongoing story, market-timing-step-2-going-back-2361111/84/#p33542871

FTSE Russell drops eight Chinese companies from indices after Trump order
December 5, 2020 1:58 am

https://www.ft.com/content/d7ba9df0-282 ... 96af4a331a

"FTSE Russell said the companies — which include China Railway Construction Corporation, China Communications Construction Company and Hikvision, a maker of surveillance cameras — would be removed from its FTSE global equity indices and the FTSE China A Inclusion index on December 21."
IDK where this is going but more news.

• China suspends top credit rating agency as defaults hit market
Regulator says Golden Credit failed to justify some of its ratings and upgrades
https://www.ft.com/content/7be0944b-156 ... ba0b955c13

"after a former executive was accused of taking “massive” bribes"

• MSCI Is Third Index Giant to Cull Chinese Stocks Banned by U.S.
December 15, 2020, 9:23 PM EST

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ned-by-u-s

"There was little reaction in the affected stocks on Wednesday, with traders saying an announcement from MSCI on the deletions was widely expected."
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
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MrMom wrote: @freilona This is where the mkt is at. She's not wrong though. "Tina," I suspect she's using that on purpose. credit to her.

That's amazing.

I really like this one

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@yvrbanker , back to the suspicious timing of increasing equities allocation - I feel like articles from ~2015 started reappearing.. :)
Why should investors even hold bonds when, for instance, they can purchase an ETF that replicates the S&P/TSX 60 Index and has a current dividend yield of approximately 3 per cent?

Opportunities in fixed income are far more limited than ever before.

The reasons for owning government bonds were threefold. First, income. Second, capital appreciation. Third, diversification. It’s hard to find any of those legs of the stool. Income is not there. For bond yields to fall further, we would probably need to see rather weak economic activity, and recently, I’m thinking back to September when there was this temporary risk-off moment, the bond market didn’t even budge so the diversification piece is also under question.

I think this encourages a rethink of the traditional 60-40 portfolio and what investors hold in that portfolio to reach their target objectives. It likely means if investors are not willing to cut their [return] objectives, it means effectively taking on more risk in the portfolio. We think that is a sensible thing to do in 2021 because of the economic restart and the support that policy makers are likely to continue to give as the restart unfolds.
BlackRock’s chief strategist for Canada on how to invest for 2021 – and why it’s time to rethink the traditional 60-40 portfolio
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freilona wrote: No I meant jump ship/Noah’s Ark/ARKK.. :)

ARK Innovation (ARKK) tops active ETFs with $15.5B in total assets

Dunno if it’s “too big to fail” now or its crash would be epic? ;)
JPMorgan Offers ‘You Only Live Once’ Trade to Bet on Ark ETFs
December 14, 2020, 9:57 AM EST
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... n-ark-etfs

The FAANG ones were structured in a way that limited the upside, maybe these will be different. Not worth my time to ask someone about these, so I can't offer anymore insight.
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@MrMom that’d be too much ARKeology for me.. Face With Tears Of Joy

I keep researching various CEFs, have you ever looked at Contrarian Outlook/what did you think of it if yes? Found it via Is Anybody investing in Closed-End funds (CEF)? thread on finiki (wanted to open one myself, but found that @gibor365365 beat me to it :))

Ideally, if I could DCA and hold on to ARKK till I have ~60K in it and then switch to something like BST/BSTZ for USD withdrawals stage - that would be great! But my newly discovered fear of heights will probably force me to go back to good old VTI.. sigh :)
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freilona wrote: Sorry, I guess I used the wrong expression - I meant, I have a little bit in ARKK, and planned to DCA into it monthly, but more often than not want to sell it instead.. because how much higher can it go? But next day it does! It seems to be coming down to its MA 50 and then bouncing off so I can repurchase.. But does a TA really apply to (such) an ETF? I’m not too worried about Tesla as yes, it’s the biggest holding - but even if Tesla drops 50%, it’ll be only 5% for ARKK - and I do hope that active managers should, at least theoretically, handle it better than if I were to do it myself..

So I think for me it’s more psychological (because I did have holdings go down 90%+ in the past) And I’m not sure whether I should “train myself to hold on” (as I didn’t have a problem holding losers forever! why it’s so much harder to hold winners?) And wonder how those with more experience (and more money in it or much riskier “high flyers”) do it? Buy & hold or swing trade or avoid? :)
Hold it. Selling winners is a mistake. It’s winning for a reason.
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freilona wrote: @MrMom that’d be too much ARKeology for me.. Face With Tears Of Joy

I keep researching various CEFs, have you ever looked at Contrarian Outlook/what did you think of it if yes? Found it via Is Anybody investing in Closed-End funds (CEF)? thread on finiki (wanted to open one myself, but found that @gibor365365 beat me to it :))

Ideally, if I could DCA and hold on to ARKK till I have ~60K in it and then switch to something like BST/BSTZ for USD withdrawals stage - that would be great! But my newly discovered fear of heights will probably force me to go back to good old VTI.. sigh :)
You have posted more links to financial blogs this year than I have ever visited in my entire life. :)

I did listen to this podcast yesterday on closed end convertible bond funds. Hardly anyone talks about these assets, so I was curious what he had to say. I only learned two things. One, how much David Stein charges for his service and two, the influence of TSLA covert's on CEF performance.

Anyone who thinks he's not successful because a former PM runs a podcast is stupid! The podcast is merely advertising and the cost of business. if you listen to the podcast, you'll understand my attached chart.
Images
  • TSLA 2s of 24.JPG
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
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freilona wrote: @MrMom that’d be too much ARKeology for me.. Face With Tears Of Joy

I keep researching various CEFs, have you ever looked at Contrarian Outlook/what did you think of it if yes? Found it via Is Anybody investing in Closed-End funds (CEF)? thread on finiki (wanted to open one myself, but found that @gibor365365 beat me to it :))

Ideally, if I could DCA and hold on to ARKK till I have ~60K in it and then switch to something like BST/BSTZ for USD withdrawals stage - that would be great! But my newly discovered fear of heights will probably force me to go back to good old VTI.. sigh :)
I'm going to take a look at ARKK and the other ARK funds for a January TFSA contribution.

I'm having a trouble finding individual stocks I want to buy. I like BABA a lot currently but I'm at a full position now and feel like I've proven my point. I'm down slightly so far and its time to see how it pans out. I may buy a bit a bit more FTS but while its a great company its a bit overvalued and I'm probably only going to get 6-8% returns over the next couple of years if I buy now...

I also considering nys:skyy and may just buy vfv.
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llpresident wrote: Hold it. Selling winners is a mistake. It’s winning for a reason.
Are you still adding to yours or waiting for a dip? :) I was gonna do it “indexing style” (whenever I have the money), and thought my last addition @$113 was “high”, and today it’s ~$126! Next week will test my resolve.. :)
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MrMom wrote: You have posted more links to financial blogs this year than I have ever visited in my entire life. :)

I did listen to this podcast yesterday on closed end convertible bond funds.
Yeah I’m struggling to find something better to do Face With Tears Of Joy But abandoned all dividend blogs for now - and listen to David Stein’s podcasts (didn’t listen to the last one yet :))
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Chance7652 wrote: I also considering nys:skyy and may just buy vfv.
I’m buying ZCN + VFV (in 1:2 proportion) in husband’’s TFSA and ZGQ in mine (also have some VFV, want to keep both for a while before settling on one :) Only have USD holdings in RRSPs (I mean, don’t buy USD stuff in tfsas and non-reg :))
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freilona wrote: I’m buying ZCN + VFV (in 1:2 proportion) in husband’’s TFSA and ZGQ in mine (also have some VFV, want to keep both for a while before settling on one :) Only have USD holdings in RRSPs (I mean, don’t buy USD stuff in tfsas and non-reg :))
I'm going 50% Canada and 50% US buys with my kids RESPs and have some of an international and bonds as well with the TD eseries. I don't rebalance so the US is significantly bigger.

For the TFSA I mostly own US stocks that don't pay a dividend but recently bought MSFT (I figure the yield is pretty low so I won't lose that much).
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freilona wrote: Are you still adding to yours or waiting for a dip? :) I was gonna do it “indexing style” (whenever I have the money), and thought my last addition @$113 was “high”, and today it’s ~$126! Next week will test my resolve.. :)
I am continuing to buy weekly according to my DCA strategy. In event of a dip I will accelerate the investment, but it’s important to keep the process going per the plan regardless of the price as this can conceivably keep going up.
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Chance7652 wrote: I'm going 50% Canada and 50% US buys with my kids RESPs and have some of an international and bonds as well with the TD eseries. I don't rebalance so the US is significantly bigger.
Yeah we used to hold XEF in husbands TFSA for international exposure (and proper Couch Potato-ness :)), but abandoned it this January for consistent underperformance (still hold it in both RRSPs) Funny that his lone bond is beating VFV! But nah, it’s just a nature of strip bonds - and it was a well-timed purchase, looking back.. :)
70738FC0-8451-4992-9730-C2E2F8037AFF.jpeg
For the TFSA I mostly own US stocks that don't pay a dividend but recently bought MSFT (I figure the yield is pretty low so I won't lose that much).
Who’s your broker? :) I think there is some surcharge at Questrade for USD purchases in TFSAs and RESPs, so we decided from the get go not to bother (and prefer ETFs anyway, fwt is small on low-yielding US ones :))
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freilona wrote: Yeah we used to hold XEF in husbands TFSA for international exposure (and proper Couch Potato-ness :)), but abandoned it this January for consistent underperformance (still hold it in both RRSPs) Funny that his lone bond is beating VFV! But nah, it’s just a nature of strip bonds - and it was a well-timed purchase, looking back.. :)

Who’s your broker? :) I think there is some surcharge at Questrade for USD purchases in TFSAs and RESPs, so we decided from the get go not to bother (and prefer ETFs anyway, fwt is small on low-yielding US ones :))
I use TDDI and have Canadian and US account and do norbits gambit using my existing stocks. Every trade in US is effectively $30 with some volatility on the stock price.

I had XEF as well in 2017 and at the time was trying to decide between taking a bigger position in AMZN and starting to buy XEF. I ended up buying 6 shares in AMZN instead of 8 so I could also XEF. In the end I sold XEF at the loss the next year. There are no do over but I still sometimes think of that one...
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Chance7652 wrote: I ended up buying 6 shares in AMZN instead of 8 so I could also XEF. In the end I sold XEF at the loss the next year. There are no do over but I still sometimes think of that one...
Hubby wanted to buy Apple with all his accumulated over the years cash back in 2014, but I convinced him of the merits of diversification. He nicely reminded me about it the other day, when I told him about the couple who have so much in Apple that their $1.4 million tax bill (if they sell it all at once) would be larger than our portfolio :facepalm:

But yeah, could’ve been GE?.. Trying not to have regrets.. :)
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Chance7652 wrote: I'm going to take a look at ARKK and the other ARK funds for a January TFSA contribution.

I'm having a trouble finding individual stocks I want to buy. I like BABA a lot currently but I'm at a full position now and feel like I've proven my point. I'm down slightly so far and its time to see how it pans out. I may buy a bit a bit more FTS but while its a great company its a bit overvalued and I'm probably only going to get 6-8% returns over the next couple of years if I buy now...

I also considering nys:skyy and may just buy vfv.
Not sound good ...
A quote from Cathie Wood (ARK fund manager):
"On behalf of the employee-owners of ARK, we are disappointed that Resolute Investment Managers and its private equity owner, Kelso & Co., have chosen to issue this unwelcome notice that they intend to seize control of our business."
"All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others" George Orwell
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gibor365365 wrote: Not sound good ...
A quote from Cathie Wood (ARK fund manager):
"On behalf of the employee-owners of ARK, we are disappointed that Resolute Investment Managers and its private equity owner, Kelso & Co., have chosen to issue this unwelcome notice that they intend to seize control of our business."
John Stromsays:
November 25, 2020 at 2:40 am
I hope Cathie Wood takes Resolute and Kelso to the cleaners, grabs up her entire team, and starts a new group of funds. My second hope is that Resolute and Kelso fail miserably. They are killing the goose that laid the Golden Egg.
Cathie Wood should go to Elon Musk for funding. He has the financial wherewithal and Cathie could grow his wealth enormously, giving him some diversification in the bargain.
https://www.nationandstate.com/2020/11/ ... .%E2%80%9D

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