Investing

Market Timing Step 3 or: How I learned to Stop Worrying and Love Investing

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  • Jan 22nd, 2022 5:12 pm
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freilona wrote: This up/down 1%+ yo-yo gets really annoying.. :) Statistically, today is the day to BTFD:

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I hope you are right. Low ball order has been placed.
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freilona wrote: Topped up ARKK to 100 shares @$124 this morning (average cost $108.63) Sold July 15, 2022 140 calls for $11.10 ($10.96 commissions) Will listen to their monthly webinar in half an hour - and will consider buying-to-close the calls on a severe pullback.. but will be fine getting assigned in a year :)
Thinking to Buy To Close ARKK covered calls. 77%+ profit in less than 3 months is a small consolation for the underlying shares price drop 🤣 But they’re still slightly above my average purchase price, so might wait for a further drop and/or “rinse and repeat” (c) @Janus2faced :)
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freilona wrote: Thinking to Buy To Close ARKK covered calls. 77%+ profit in less than 3 months is a small consolation for the underlying shares price drop 🤣 But they’re still slightly above my average purchase price, so might wait for a further drop and/or “rinse and repeat” (c) @Janus2faced :)
Can you run my portfolio? ;)
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Sanyo wrote: Can you run my portfolio? ;)
Haha sure - could you “just buy VTI” for me in return? Face With Tears Of Joy
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I just keep investing within my own circle of competence. A couple of days ago my wife and I received the last quarterly distributions for 2021 from our global balanced index funds. We immediately re-invested the proceeds into more of the balanced fund and updated our spreadsheet to reflect that this morning.

I don't know yet if we'll be using our savings and dividends to buy more of a Canadian dividend equity in our non-registered account towards the end of October or not. Getting closer to the required figure, but we're still saving for that all important dual TFSA contribution coming up rapidly in early January, plus any other expenses along the way.
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Stryker wrote: I just keep investing within my own circle of competence. A couple of days ago my wife and I received the last quarterly distributions for 2021 from our global balanced index funds. We immediately re-invested the proceeds into more of the balanced fund and updated our spreadsheet to reflect that this morning.
And I saw that VTI was $221.50 pre-market, but then opened higher, so entered a limit order for 50 shares @$222, which got filled right before VTI dipped below $221, so I quickly entered the limit order for the next 50 shares @$221, but wasn’t fast enough as it went up instead of down and by the time I got tired of refreshing the screen and decided to give in and just buy remaining 150 shares @$222 - it jumped to $223.50 and just oscillated there, while I kept swearing “never again.. never again.. never again!” And now it’s $224 and change!! *micdrop*

(“Don’t do what I do” confession/rant :facepalm:)
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The market went green on me. My order did not fill. Should I be happy or mad??? Smiling Face With Open MouthSmiling Face With HornsSmiling Face With Open MouthSmiling Face With Horns
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will888 wrote: The market went green on me. My order did not fill. Should I be happy or mad??? Smiling Face With Open MouthSmiling Face With HornsSmiling Face With Open MouthSmiling Face With Horns
You’ll know the answer in a month or two (at least that’s what I usually do.. :facepalm: Face With Tears Of Joy)
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freilona wrote: You’ll know the answer in a month or two (at least that’s what I usually do.. :facepalm: Face With Tears Of Joy)
Don't mind me, I am just trying to bite my nose to spite my face here. I am disgruntled when 99% of the investment is positive but I am unable to bargain hunt for the 1%.
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I should seriously stop reading these “predictions” rofl:
One scenario outlined by Morgan Stanley’s strategists sees the S&P 500 falling by about 10% as the Fed tightens monetary policy due to rising inflationary pressures. In a second scenario, the economy and earnings slow as the Fed tightens, leading to a 20% swoon.

Despite those worries, however, historical evidence shows that a market powered by strong momentum tends to keep rising.

Seasonal trends also could provide reasons to buy sooner rather than later.

JPMorgan’s Kolanovic, meanwhile, wrote investors should use the recent pullback as an opportunity to buy emerging and developed market equities with the exception of high-growth and technology shares.
Buying the dip? Not so fast, some Wall Street banks say
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freilona wrote: I should seriously stop reading these “predictions” rofl:

One scenario outlined by Morgan Stanley’s strategists sees the S&P 500 falling by about 10% as the Fed tightens monetary policy due to rising inflationary pressures. In a second scenario, the economy and earnings slow as the Fed tightens, leading to a 20% swoon.
Despite those worries, however, historical evidence shows that a market powered by strong momentum tends to keep rising.
Seasonal trends also could provide reasons to buy sooner rather than later.
JPMorgan’s Kolanovic, meanwhile, wrote investors should use the recent pullback as an opportunity to buy emerging and developed market equities with the exception of high-growth and technology shares

Buying the dip? Not so fast, some Wall Street banks say
I made a number of Macro calls over the last year and invested accordingly.

1) Was aggressive with Oil positions Q2>Q3 '20 (still holding)
2) Reduced/avoided Renewable positions early '21 (and still)
3) Avoided new Tech positions starting late last year (and all of this year).
4) Stayed with Financials

Some of the calls more obvious than others (i.e. negative Oil pricing LY, Chip shortages for Tech, EV, Auto, inflated valuations in the renewable sector with anemic growth rates, rising Bond yields).

Following the continued supply disruption trends, it's difficult to see how Tech companies (or most Consumer Discretionary) come out of Q3/Q4 '21 with anything short of disappointing earnings. I'm not "buying into" the market dip theme for Tech, myself.
If Tech stock values brush off what I expect to be anemic earnings, the Tech side of things only becomes more historically over-valued.

Factoring Interest Rates/Inflation for Tech should be an obvious as input costs rise against lower output. Renewables are starting to show some "better" valuations but with higher Natural Gas feed stock prices and regulated rates, I think valuations could still move lower going into year-end.

For now, sticking with an Inflation Tilt (anything I can eat, drink, or pour) that doesn't require a microchip to build.

Simple thesis(es) that have so far played out.
Last edited by DealRNothing on Oct 6th, 2021 10:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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freilona wrote: I should seriously stop reading these “predictions” rofl:



Buying the dip? Not so fast, some Wall Street banks say
These kind of articles create self fulfilling prophecies. Depending on the level of market momentum, the amount of dip can be muted or amplified. If what we have seen so far is it for the season affective disorder, then the market will power up another 10% from current levels to year end. I have good faith that there will be greater visibility when earnings come out. I expect the top 10 to post further upside surprises. They are for the most part swimming in cash with increasing yields having little impact on the profitability. The pandemic continues to accelerate the transformation to the digital economy which is deflationary. Hopefully the indices will not get too far ahead of itself and we can see S&P 500 P/E drop below 20 so that stocks will lose that overpriced attribute.
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I just realized that I keep getting stuck in “analysis paralysis”.. it’s like I’m the opposite of @Janus2faced: he can easily come up with ten (usually unorthodox :)) things one can buy - and I can Google in ten minutes why one shouldn’t :facepalm:

I almost bought TQQQ today - while struggling to buy what I planned to buy. And sometimes it feels silly to spend so much time reading and thinking and back-testing different ideas while all I could’ve done was have purchased an all-in-one ETF - or at least stuck to the agreed upon with my husband asset allocation..

But then it finally happens: an idea that is so easy and appealing with a follow-up plan that I know I can stick to! And I’m almost afraid to share it because even though we often help each other get “unstuck” - sometimes it’s hard to stick to what you want to do if it gets challenged..

Nothing earth-shattering here: just buy VTI and EEMS in my RRSP. To get emerging markets allocation to intended 5%. And maintain 1:1 proportion in both RRSP with VTI and EEMS and TFSA with VFV and ZEM. This is something I’ve been doing for years in husband’s TFSA: 2:1 proportion of VFV and ZCN.

It’s funny that it took so much effort to realize that this is what works for me the best - mentally and emotionally :)
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freilona wrote: I just realized that I keep getting stuck in “analysis paralysis”.. it’s like I’m the opposite of @Janus2faced: he can easily come up with ten (usually unorthodox :)) things one can buy - and I can Google in ten minutes why one shouldn’t :facepalm:

I almost bought TQQQ today - while struggling to buy what I planned to buy. And sometimes it feels silly to spend so much time reading and thinking and back-testing different ideas while all I could’ve done was have purchased an all-in-one ETF - or at least stuck to the agreed upon with my husband asset allocation..

But then it finally happens: an idea that is so easy and appealing with a follow-up plan that I know I can stick to! And I’m almost afraid to share it because even though we often help each other get “unstuck” - sometimes it’s hard to stick to what you want to do if it gets challenged..

Nothing earth-shattering here: just buy VTI and EEMS in my RRSP. To get emerging markets allocation to intended 5%. And maintain 1:1 proportion in both RRSP with VTI and EEMS and TFSA with VFV and ZEM. This is something I’ve been doing for years in husband’s TFSA: 2:1 proportion of VFV and ZCN.

It’s funny that it took so much effort to realize that this is what works for me the best - mentally and emotionally :)
Janus is 2 decades older and buys TQQQ with what amounts to lottery ticket money. He has already accumulated in cash more than necessary to live on. Unless you are in the same situation, it is natural to agonize over every investment even if it is a lowly lottery ticket. Is it 6/49, lotto max, scratch and win this week? If in doubt check in with the weird one. I am getting all sorts of wonderful feedback on what I should and should not be doing.
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freilona wrote: It’s funny that it took so much effort to realize that this is what works for me the best - mentally and emotionally :)
"What works for you." Perfect. +1

It would be nice for the rest of the posters to know that and stop trying to force their beliefs on others.
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That was unexpected (entered the market order for the first time in.. years? And it was executed better than expected 🤣)
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freilona wrote: I just realized that I keep getting stuck in “analysis paralysis”.. it’s like I’m the opposite of @Janus2faced: he can easily come up with ten (usually unorthodox :)) things one can buy - and I can Google in ten minutes why one shouldn’t :facepalm:

I almost bought TQQQ today - while struggling to buy what I planned to buy. And sometimes it feels silly to spend so much time reading and thinking and back-testing different ideas while all I could’ve done was have purchased an all-in-one ETF - or at least stuck to the agreed upon with my husband asset allocation..

But then it finally happens: an idea that is so easy and appealing with a follow-up plan that I know I can stick to! And I’m almost afraid to share it because even though we often help each other get “unstuck” - sometimes it’s hard to stick to what you want to do if it gets challenged..

It’s funny that it took so much effort to realize that this is what works for me the best - mentally and emotionally :)
many overthink many things, investing is probably at the top of the list.

that ARKK that you topped up to 100 shares when it was $124, then optioned the long $140 for $11.

with your average $108.xx, time decay on the option including as seen recently the stock drops, that $140 option price also drops.

so why not buy to close today, cream the difference in the buy/sell trading option.

rewind that back: to your 100 shares optioned to July 2022: stock at $112 today you have approx $11 option money, ACB $108.XX.

to buy back the july $140 it will cost you ~$2.60, bagging net $8/share x 100 = $800.

with a cleared deck your new ACB is $108.xx minus $8 = ~$100

what I would do....

with your new ^^^ ACB of $100, sell the march $120 cc for $5.50 (5 mths), now lowering your ACB to $100 - $5 (after commissions) to $95

worse case March comes you get called away & get $120.

net $25 over an ACB of $95 = 26.31%

lets say in March the stock is back at $130

add $10 to your $120 go buy 100 shares, sell another 6 mth cc ATM

^^^ and always be ready to play/trade time decay on the cc option.

as for TQQQ that is not for everyone.

I had said previously to get 10 shares buy & hold or at $100 price after each split.

do not buy today, this is one sucker that you cannot time.

ARKK vs SPXL with bolt on options, I'll go with SPXL

SPXL at $116 the April 2022 (6 mths to expiry) cc ATM is paying $16

.
Last edited by Janus2faced on Oct 7th, 2021 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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will888 wrote: Janus is 2 decades older and buys TQQQ with what amounts to lottery ticket money. He has already accumulated in cash more than necessary to live on. Unless you are in the same situation, it is natural to agonize over every investment even if it is a lowly lottery ticket. Is it 6/49, lotto max, scratch and win this week?

If in doubt check in with the weird one. I am getting all sorts of wonderful feedback on what I should and should not be doing.
^^^ this is relevant key insight, thanks for posting.

I would though say to a 35 year old to take 1% of their portfolio to buy & hold (forever) a 3x index ETF over a penny stock or a flavour of the day pick.

choices one from or pick 2 ... TQQQ, UPRO, SPXL, UDOW
Last edited by Janus2faced on Oct 7th, 2021 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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