Real Estate

[Merged] Real estate crash - yes, no, maybe?

Poll: Canadian Real Estate Crash

  • Total votes: 1772. You have voted on this poll.
Yes
 
727
41%
No
 
716
40%
Maybe
 
329
19%
Deal Addict
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Dec 13, 2016
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JayLove06 wrote: No one had a problem with them until they started buying up real estate
In Thailand real estate moved up many hundreds of percent in the past 20 years since white sex tourist started visiting.

In the last 5 years, Chinese and Japanese have moved in and it's rising even more.

I never hear any Thais complaining about the price of real estate. Instead they are using the situation to their advantage.

I don't know why Canadians like to whine and just be lazy in general?
Deal Guru
Feb 29, 2008
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BiegeToyota wrote: In Thailand real estate moved up many hundreds of percent in the past 20 years since white sex tourist started visiting.

In the last 5 years, Chinese and Japanese have moved in and it's rising even more.

I never hear any Thais complaining about the price of real estate. Instead they are using the situation to their advantage.

I don't know why Canadians like to whine and just be lazy in general?
Canadians have lived life a particular way until now. Things have changed. I also can't think of a country that taxes its citizens this much and at the same time stifles competition among businesses.

There is a lot of complaining though. I can't afford a detached in the city either. Oh well. Guess I gotta generate more income instead of crying to the government.
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Dec 26, 2005
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BiegeToyota wrote: In Thailand real estate moved up many hundreds of percent in the past 20 years since white sex tourist started visiting.

In the last 5 years, Chinese and Japanese have moved in and it's rising even more.

I never hear any Thais complaining about the price of real estate. Instead they are using the situation to their advantage.

I don't know why Canadians like to whine and just be lazy in general?
So a new grass hut costs 5 chickens instead of 3? Sounds like you are the one whining. If you don't like Canadians then why don't you just piss off.
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Jul 10, 2018
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Slono wrote: Honestly in Toronto, it’s probably overestimated and overblown vs. Vancouver.
Even if it is, it's always only been one of several factors. The consensus appears to be that while some rich Chinese helped to accelerate prices at the margins, it is cheap money, speculators, and FOMO that have kept the bar elevated.
JayLove06 wrote: No one had a problem with them until they started buying up real estate
You underestimate or are unaware of sentiment in Vancouver over the past 60+ years. Joe Blow Canadian was never particularly happy about that city becoming a mini Chinese appendage. The same griping about Chinese money heard today was said during the last crash. Folks are ok with home appreciation but they don't like it when affordability becomes a problem for themselves of their kids, so any excuse (real or imagined) will be expressed when times get tough.
BiegeToyota wrote: In Thailand real estate moved up many hundreds of percent in the past 20 years since white sex tourist started visiting.

In the last 5 years, Chinese and Japanese have moved in and it's rising even more.

I never hear any Thais complaining about the price of real estate. Instead they are using the situation to their advantage.

I don't know why Canadians like to whine and just be lazy in general?
All that sex tourism. You must think ordinary Taiwanese people just love selling access to their bodies to foreigners and are not at all concerned about quality of life. I'll play along - is this what you want for Canada? For "lazy" Canadian teenagers to quit school and become sex partners to visitors worldwide? When those tourists tell us that the teens don't complain, we can assume Canadians are happy about the situation?

You sound a wee bit out of touch with a deeply flawed myopic arrogant Canadian-centric-boomer point of view.
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TheSinner wrote:
All that sex tourism. You must think ordinary Taiwanese
Should have stopped reading right there:)
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Dec 30, 2012
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Toronto
BiegeToyota wrote: In Thailand real estate moved up many hundreds of percent in the past 20 years since white sex tourist started visiting.

In the last 5 years, Chinese and Japanese have moved in and it's rising even more.

I never hear any Thais complaining about the price of real estate. Instead they are using the situation to their advantage.

I don't know why Canadians like to whine and just be lazy in general?
I guess that's why foreign ownership of land/houses is banned in Thailand?

You know, because they love foreigners swamping their real estate market apparently.
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civiclease wrote: I guess that's why foreign ownership of land/houses is banned in Thailand?

You know, because they love foreigners swamping their real estate market apparently.
Of course. They are smart. Condo boom brought so much development that no city in Canada will ever experience. I'm all for Canada doing the same thing instead of imposing racist taxes and resorting to dual pricing of foreign nationals.
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Dec 30, 2012
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BiegeToyota wrote: Of course. They are smart. Condo boom brought so much development that no city in Canada will ever experience. I'm all for Canada doing the same thing instead of imposing racist taxes and resorting to dual pricing of foreign nationals.
It brought so much development to a poor country that had nowhere to go but up.

Might the fact that Thais apparently don't mind the foreign influx (since you seem to be clairvoyant and know what every Thai person thinks) have to do with the fact that it's impossible for foreigners there to price locals out of land ownership (and even foreign condo purchases are tightly controlled)?

Why is a foreign buyers tax racist but a foreign land purchase ban not racist?
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Dec 30, 2012
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TheSinner wrote: I'll play along - is this what you want for Canada? For "lazy" Canadian teenagers to quit school and become sex partners to visitors worldwide? When those tourists tell us that the teens don't complain, we can assume Canadians are happy about the situation?
Naturally, no answer was forthcoming.

I would prefer Canadians take their cues from Germany or Denmark rather than Thailand, personally. Lots of people "whine" (i.e. standing up for one's interests) in those countries too.

Those who oppose whining about some subjects seem to have no problem whining about other subjects (foreign taxes, rent control, tenants' rights, etc).
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Dec 13, 2016
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civiclease wrote: Naturally, no answer was forthcoming.

I would prefer Canadians take their cues from Germany or Denmark rather than Thailand, personally. Lots of people "whine" (i.e. standing up for one's interests) in those countries too.

Those who oppose whining about some subjects seem to have no problem whining about other subjects (foreign taxes, rent control, tenants' rights, etc).
Naturally, no discussion is possible when one does not know the difference between Taiwan and Thailand.

Naturally, the guy who does not know the basic geography also completely missed the point concluding that all Thai women prostitutes instead of realizing that Westerners were completely responsible for the prices of real estate where they are now.

And what examples from Germany? My German friend sold his house for 2 million Euros a few hours drive outside Munich. Must be those all Romanian immigrants that are pricing Germans out.
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Dec 30, 2012
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BiegeToyota wrote: Naturally, no discussion is possible when one does not know the difference between Taiwan and Thailand.

Naturally, the guy who does not know the basic geography also completely missed the point concluding that all Thai women prostitutes instead of realizing that Westerners were completely responsible for the prices of real estate where they are now.

And what examples from Germany? My German friend sold his house for 2 million Euros a few hours drive outside Munich. Must be those all Romanian immigrants that are pricing Germans out.
I'm assuming when he typed "Taiwanese" it was simply a brain fart and he meant to type Thai. It happens.

My comparison to Germany had nothing to do with house prices. Though since you ask, the house price index in Germany has barely doubled since 1990 : https://www.deutschlandinzahlen.de/tab/ ... preisindex I'm glad your friend is wealthy (and apparently brags to people about the price of his property?) but based on average German price appreciation, he didn't earn much profit after inflation/fees unless he bought several decades ago.

You've provided no evidence of Thai properties going up "many hundreds" of percent in 20 years. A quick search of a few sites shows a doubling since around 2000. So your mythical "many hundreds of per cent" is actually more like 100% precisely, over the course of nearly 20 years : https://www.findthaiproperty.com/thaila ... 2000-2017/

How do you know that Westerners are completely responsible for Bangkok real estate prices? Thailand's GDP has quadrupled since the end of the Asian financial crisis in the 90s. That didn't contribute to condo prices, as more Thais bought in? Or is the rise in GDP due to Westerners buying condos in Bangkok?

Why did you (again) dodge the question as to why a FBT is racist but a foreign land purchase ban isn't racist?
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civiclease wrote: I'm assuming when he typed "Taiwanese" it was simply a brain fart and he meant to type Thai. It happens.

My comparison to Germany had nothing to do with house prices. Though since you ask, the house price index in Germany has barely doubled since 1990 : https://www.deutschlandinzahlen.de/tab/ ... preisindex I'm glad your friend is wealthy (and apparently brags to people about the price of his property?) but based on average German price appreciation, he didn't earn a massive profit after inflation/fees versus what he originally paid unless he bought many many years ago.

You've provided no evidence of Thai properties going up "many hundreds" of percent in 20 years. A quick search of a few sites shows a doubling since around 2000. So your mythical "many hundreds of per cent" is actually more like 100% precisely, over the course of nearly 20 years : https://www.findthaiproperty.com/thaila ... 2000-2017/

How do you know that Westerners are completely responsible for Bangkok real estate prices? Thailand's GDP has quadrupled since the end of the Asian financial crisis in the 90s. That didn't contribute to condo prices, as more Thais bought in? Or is the rise in GDP due to Westerners buying condos in Bangkok?

Why did you (again) dodge the question as to why a FBT is racist for a foreign land purchase ban isn't racist?
It was a good balanced article that you posted.

However, I never like looking at historical prices even though they seem to be correct. The reason for this is because Bangkok real estate started experiencing boom once the first skytrain line was built which was in 1997 I think. Also, a lot of Bangkok properties are (and I mentioned this many times) are unlivable by Western standards. Only in the past 10-15 years did they start building condominiums that rival Canada..... and they are still a shoddy construction with subpar maintenance. I am talking about these condos that sell for the same price like in Toronto. Gotta compare apples to apples.... not some place with a squat toilet and kitchen on the balcony. This is what distorts averages in Bangkok and this is why I never trust charts from the 3rd world countries.

As for Germany, my friend is not rich. Did you try and google the prices of Apartments in big cities?
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Dec 30, 2012
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BiegeToyota wrote: It was a good balanced article that you posted.

However, I never like looking at historical prices even though they seem to be correct. The reason for this is because Bangkok real estate started experiencing boom once the first skytrain line was built which was in 1997 I think. Also, a lot of Bangkok properties are (and I mentioned this many times) are unlivable by Western standards. Only in the past 10-15 years did they start building condominiums that rival Canada..... and they are still a shoddy construction with subpar maintenance. I am talking about these condos that sell for the same price like in Toronto. Gotta compare apples to apples.... not some place with a squat toilet and kitchen on the balcony. This is what distorts averages in Bangkok and this is why I never trust charts from the 3rd world countries.

As for Germany, my friend is not rich. Did you try and google the prices of Apartments in big cities?
So you're basically just guessing, or using a few anecdotes as your assessment for the entire Bangkok market. A quick perusal of www.thailand-property.com shows many apartments that look perfectly nice going for a fraction of what they would cost in Toronto. Granted when compared to local Thai incomes they are certainly exorbitant, but nothing like the insane prices you are claiming (with no evidence) for the city.

Someone who owned a €2 million ($3 million CAD) property isn't rich? Are you humble-bragging for your friend? I searched Berlin housing prices. While it's had a run-up like everywhere else due to low interest rates, in the most expensive part of Berlin (Mitte), per/m2 pricing is running around €4500, or about €418 per sq ft. That translates to $627 CAD per sq ft, far below Toronto pricing. And that's by far the priciest area of Berlin. Neighbourhoods immediately surrounding Mitte offer significantly lower prices. I should also add that the average 1-bdrm rent in Berlin is around €850 or $1300 CAD, while average salary is slightly higher than Toronto.
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civiclease wrote: So you're basically just guessing, or using a few anecdotes as your assessment for the entire Bangkok market. A quick perusal of www.thailand-property.com shows many apartments that look perfectly nice going for a fraction of what they would cost in Toronto. Granted when compared to local Thai incomes they are certainly exorbitant, but nothing like the insane prices you are claiming (with no evidence) for the city.

Someone who owned a €2 million ($3 million CAD) property isn't rich? Are you humble-bragging for your friend? I searched Berlin housing prices. While it's had a run-up like everywhere else due to low interest rates, in the most expensive part of Berlin (Mitte), per/m2 pricing is running around €4500, or about €418 per sq ft. That translates to $627 CAD per sq ft, far below Toronto pricing. And that's by far the priciest area of Berlin. Neighbourhoods immediately surrounding Mitte offer significantly lower prices. I should also add that the average 1-bdrm rent in Berlin is around €850 or $1300 CAD, while average salary is slightly higher than Toronto.
Yep, keep googling and find your solitude in the virtual world from some dodgy web sites that have absolutely no relevance to reality. You have absolutely no idea where these "nice" properties are located and you are again relying on a website that doesn't provide accurate information..... all that while my evidence is "anecdotal" while I live there full time. BTW, many listings on the (Thai) site are always expired and are often a clickbait with low prices just to lure people.

But lets do proper comparison, shall we?

Ritz Carlton Residences in Bangkok staring at 49mil baht (almost 2mil dollars for the cheapest one).

https://www.cbre.co.th/en/Property/Deta ... gkok-33371

Ritz Carlton Residences in Toronto 1,425,000 Same square footage.

https://condos.ca/toronto/residences-of ... ngton-st-w


The proper site to look up properties woule be cbre.co.th

https://www.cbre.co.th/en/Property/Deta ... iver-38011

68sqm 1 bedroom condo, not close to transport 400k

https://www.cbre.co.th/en/Property/Deta ... dlom-31521

57sqm 370k

https://www.cbre.co.th/en/Property/Deta ... ence-20518

135sqm 1.2 million dollars....


Remember... apples to apples condos...not some condos built by slave labor that will fall apart in 10 years.
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Apr 2, 2016
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Slono wrote: Do you know what % of the investment properties in Toronto are owned by Chinese investors?
I'm pretty sure this data isn't disclosed publicly. From what I can see in Vancouver, probably upwards of 75% of buyers are mainland Chinese.
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Dec 19, 2001
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Fernando Poo
Been eight years of this thread, losing faith that the market will ever come down making it magic. As for the above post, I think we need to crack down on buyers from the PRC. It's a situation where there's a culture for buying property, a restriction on property buying in China by the commie govt, and lots of cash to buy elsewhere. It goes against my libertarian principles but this is a special case where no one here is going to be able to afford a house if it continues.
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Dec 19, 2001
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Fernando Poo
BrianWS6 wrote: I think so, and I also know that the foreign investors are not factored in when the analysts give their projections for soft landings vs crashes ect. All it's going to take is the Chinese investors pulling the plug (whether due to changing regulations, economic turmoil, or simply finding greener pastures) to topple this whole market across the country. When it crashes, it's going to crash hard.
How much is this investment tied up with Canadian banks? Or are they bringing cash from the home country? One would be good news for me (their own money) or really bad (the CDN banks holding the assets).
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Apr 2, 2016
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hagbard wrote: How much is this investment tied up with Canadian banks? Or are they bringing cash from the home country? One would be good news for me (their own money) or really bad (the CDN banks holding the assets).
They are bringing cash from overseas to pay for initial investment.
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Jul 10, 2018
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BiegeToyota wrote: Naturally, no discussion is possible when one does not know the difference between Taiwan and Thailand.

Naturally, the guy who does not know the basic geography also completely missed the point concluding that all Thai women prostitutes instead of realizing that Westerners were completely responsible for the prices of real estate where they are now.

And what examples from Germany? My German friend sold his house for 2 million Euros a few hours drive outside Munich. Must be those all Romanian immigrants that are pricing Germans out.
Typos/mistakes and geography are very different things. Never hang your hat on non sequiturs. It's neither thoughtful or productive. You do seem to know quite a lot about prostitution in the 3rd World so if I ever have any questions, I know who to ask.

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