Real Estate

[Merged] Real estate crash - yes, no, maybe?

Poll: Canadian Real Estate Crash

  • Total votes: 1772. You have voted on this poll.
Yes
 
727
41%
No
 
716
40%
Maybe
 
329
19%
Deal Addict
User avatar
Dec 13, 2016
3663 posts
3152 upvotes
TheSinner wrote: Typos/mistakes and geography are very different things. Never hang your hat on non sequiturs. It's neither thoughtful or productive. You do seem to know quite a lot about prostitution in the 3rd World so if I ever have any questions, I know who to ask.
No doubt you are in desperate need.
Sr. Member
Jul 10, 2018
513 posts
483 upvotes
BiegeToyota wrote: No doubt you are in desperate need.
Females or shemales?

I'm too young to default to that lifestyle. I'll leave the sex tourism to you boomers for now.

I don't think Canada should model its housing policy after a third world nations or nations with very different regimes. Johannesburg and Moscow may also have expensive real estate but I wouldn't want to live in either.
Deal Expert
User avatar
Dec 19, 2001
30809 posts
1680 upvotes
Fernando Poo
BrianWS6 wrote: They are bringing cash from overseas to pay for initial investment.
"Initial investment"? Then do they finance the rest?
Deal Addict
Dec 30, 2012
1098 posts
1147 upvotes
Toronto
BiegeToyota wrote: Yep, keep googling and find your solitude in the virtual world from some dodgy web sites that have absolutely no relevance to reality. You have absolutely no idea where these "nice" properties are located and you are again relying on a website that doesn't provide accurate information..... all that while my evidence is "anecdotal" while I live there full time. BTW, many listings on the (Thai) site are always expired and are often a clickbait with low prices just to lure people.

But lets do proper comparison, shall we?

Ritz Carlton Residences in Bangkok staring at 49mil baht (almost 2mil dollars for the cheapest one).

https://www.cbre.co.th/en/Property/Deta ... gkok-33371

Ritz Carlton Residences in Toronto 1,425,000 Same square footage.

https://condos.ca/toronto/residences-of ... ngton-st-w
Where are you seeing $1.4m for the Ritz Carlton in Toronto? When I click on the condos.ca link I see two properties for sale, and the cheaper of the two is $1.99m for 1400sqft.

Your other examples are still below Toronto’s current pricing.

So at best, at the luxury level, available only to a relatively small number of very wealthy people, the prices in the two cities can be similar. Below that the Thai prices decline significantly below their Toronto equivalents. Didn’t you once claim here that quality 1-bedroom condos in Bangkok cost $10 million? I don’t know the ratio of quality Bangkok condos to slave-labour condos and I suspect you don’t know either.

I prefer the German model (actually, most of Europe is similar) of sustainable, well diversified economy and a sane housing market that allows homeowners to build wealth over the long term without tilting the balance inexorably against renters or fueling speculation.

And why won’t you explain why/how a FBT is racist but a foreign land purchase ban isn’t?
Deal Guru
Feb 9, 2009
10050 posts
7975 upvotes
civiclease wrote: Where are you seeing $1.4m for the Ritz Carlton in Toronto? When I click on the condos.ca link I see two properties for sale, and the cheaper of the two is $1.99m for 1400sqft.

Your other examples are still below Toronto’s current pricing.

So at best, at the luxury level, available only to a relatively small number of very wealthy people, the prices in the two cities can be similar. Below that the Thai prices decline significantly below their Toronto equivalents. Didn’t you once claim here that quality 1-bedroom condos in Bangkok cost $10 million? I don’t know the ratio of quality Bangkok condos to slave-labour condos and I suspect you don’t know either.

I prefer the German model (actually, most of Europe is similar) of sustainable, well diversified economy and a sane housing market that allows homeowners to build wealth over the long term without tilting the balance inexorably against renters or fueling speculation.

And why won’t you explain why/how a FBT is racist but a foreign land purchase ban isn’t?
Most of Europe has expensive real estate..
Deal Addict
User avatar
Dec 13, 2016
3663 posts
3152 upvotes
civiclease wrote: Where are you seeing $1.4m for the Ritz Carlton in Toronto? When I click on the condos.ca link I see two properties for sale, and the cheaper of the two is $1.99m for 1400sqft.

Your other examples are still below Toronto’s current pricing.

So at best, at the luxury level, available only to a relatively small number of very wealthy people, the prices in the two cities can be similar. Below that the Thai prices decline significantly below their Toronto equivalents. Didn’t you once claim here that quality 1-bedroom condos in Bangkok cost $10 million? I don’t know the ratio of quality Bangkok condos to slave-labour condos and I suspect you don’t know either.

I prefer the German model (actually, most of Europe is similar) of sustainable, well diversified economy and a sane housing market that allows homeowners to build wealth over the long term without tilting the balance inexorably against renters or fueling speculation.

And why won’t you explain why/how a FBT is racist but a foreign land purchase ban isn’t?
I gave you the average prices of similar buildings and they are not in the luxury category. Ritz is, the others are in the same or lower category as Mattamy homes.

I never claimed that quality 1 bedroom condos in Bangkok are 10 million. Please find that post. You can't.

What I claimed in the past (when Toronto prices were lower) that higher end condos in Bangkok (which are way below Tridel quality) go for $2000 per square foot and are more expensive than Toronto.
Deal Addict
Dec 30, 2012
1098 posts
1147 upvotes
Toronto
BiegeToyota wrote: I gave you the average prices of similar buildings and they are not in the luxury category. Ritz is, the others are in the same or lower category as Mattamy homes.

I never claimed that quality 1 bedroom condos in Bangkok are 10 million. Please find that post. You can't.

What I claimed in the past (when Toronto prices were lower) that higher end condos in Bangkok (which are way below Tridel quality) go for $2000 per square foot and are more expensive than Toronto.
Sorry I thought I saw that claim from you somewhere.

The other examples you cited (68 m2 at 400K, 57 m2 at 370K) are still below Toronto equivalents of the same size.

You seem to be assuming that all the less expensive Bangkok condos are garbage quality - every last one of them. It's very easy to dismiss all such examples as "slave-labour buildings that will collapse in 10 years" but without supporting evidence, such a blanket assessment rings a bit hollow.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
8566 posts
10163 upvotes
Toronto
bigmancanada wrote: its a good topic. any new comments?
It's been 2 years since the crazy peak and FOMO bidding wars. I think we have another couple years like this of slow moderate growth and then stimulus and the cycle starts again. The big global financial crisis was '08 I think the next couple cycles will be much more moderate but who knows.
Member
Aug 16, 2011
364 posts
233 upvotes
OTTAWA
This down cycle hasn't been that significant from 2017... 20% off.. condos still going up mid single digits? Feels like its 2012-2013 again when the market just stagnated
Deal Addict
Dec 27, 2006
1969 posts
948 upvotes
https://business.financialpost.com/real ... prices/amp?

Toronto new home sales plunge to lowest in almost 20 years as unsold condos pile up
By Bloomberg News
Originally Published: Feb 1, 2019

"Greater caution" should be taken when investing in new condo units, says research firm Urbanation. Brent Lewin/Bloomberg
New home buyers finally reached their limit in Toronto last year.

After years of frenzied price increases, sales of new homes in Canada’s biggest city sunk to the lowest in almost two decades in 2018 and the supply of unsold condos piled up, according to a pair of new reports released Friday.

The market has started to normalize after unprecedented activity in recent years

Urbanation president Shaun Hildebrand

“Greater caution” should be taken when investing in new condo units, particularly over the short-term, as trends point toward slower appreciation, Shaun Hildebrand, president of condo research firm Urbanation, said in the report. The “market has started to normalize after unprecedented activity in recent years.”

Toronto’s housing market is dramatically cooling after higher interest rates and new mortgage regulations bite. The city joins other global metropolises such as London and Sydney seeing a slowdown as international investors retreat and domestic buyers balk at higher prices.

Sales of new homes fell to 25,161 from 2017, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association, which used data from Altus Group Ltd. That’s the lowest annual number since Toronto-based Altus started tracking the figures in 2000.

Single-family homes showed the biggest decline, plunging 50 per cent to 3,831 from 2017 and 74 per cent below the 10-year average. Condos sales fell 38 per cent to 21,330, but only 4 per cent below the 10-year average.

While the benchmark price of a new single-family home slumped 6.7 per cent to $1,143,505 in December on the year, condo prices surged 11 per cent to $796,815, according to BILD’s report.

But figures from Urbanation show further weakness building in condos as well. A record 21,991 units are expected to be completed this year, up 29 per cent from 2017. While 98 per cent of those units are pre-sold, more than half were bought by investors who will either rent their units or sell them, the firm said.

The number of unsold units in development jumped 47 per cent in the fourth quarter from the year before to more than a two-year high and price gains for units under development grew only 0.4 per cent between the third and fourth quarters, the smallest quarterly increase in almost three years.

“The slowdown in activity last year can partly be attributed to less demand from investors, who typically represent the largest component of new condominium purchasers,” in the Toronto region, according to Urbanation’s report.

“The market is out of balance,” said David Wilkes, president and chief executive officer of BILD, an industry group for about 1,500 companies in the Toronto region. “We join other industry groups in calling on the federal government to revisit the stress test and allow a longer amortization period for first-time buyers. And we look forward to working with our municipal partners on removing barriers to development such as excessive red tape and outdated bylaws.”
Bloomberg.com

Read the feature rich experience
Deal Guru
Feb 29, 2008
13334 posts
9140 upvotes
Wait a sec. People thought the stress test would not have an impact on the market? I said the rental caps would work out terribly and said the same thing about the stress test. And look.

You can't eliminate 1st time home buyers and expect it not to impact the market.

I still feel that condos are a good investment long term though. Wait till the prices fall and buy. That's how I bought my 1st condo.
Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2007
2904 posts
3096 upvotes
Toronto
some real messy deals happened these last couple years....



Jr. Member
Nov 14, 2012
128 posts
33 upvotes
Toronto
rocking23nf wrote: I cant see a 70% drop ever happening, cities would go under from the lack of property taxes.

Im in edmonton, we are still getting nice raises, my company has had no layoffs in a few years now.

The malls are packed, the food courts are packed. Go shopping on a saturday and its insanely busy.

I just dont see this crash happening in Alberta unless oil tanks down below 30$ a barrel.
I am with big 3 banks and all our future project funding have been pulled back. All the Project Managers are now allocated 75% allocated to projects. Only 6 months back PM were complaining about work life balance and now everyone is looking over the shoulders.
Sr. Member
Sep 7, 2018
722 posts
625 upvotes
Just sold in the west gta.

Condo, 2 days on the market and over asking
Deal Fanatic
May 1, 2012
9584 posts
8872 upvotes
Markham
I wonder how hot this spring market will be. Mortgages are dirt cheap, the stress test is about to be cut, and we're getting into spring.

Condo's getting hot?
Deal Addict
May 9, 2017
1076 posts
1116 upvotes
Anikiri wrote: I wonder how hot this spring market will be. Mortgages are dirt cheap, the stress test is about to be cut, and we're getting into spring.

Condo's getting hot?
Why do you think the stress test will be cut? OFSI and CHMC have both recently said the stress test is still a good idea.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
8566 posts
10163 upvotes
Toronto
NotRobot wrote: Why do you think the stress test will be cut? OFSI and CHMC have both recently said the stress test is still a good idea.
Probably just speculating off Morneau's hint;

Morneau made the announcement today in the House of Commons.

The budget is expected to include money to help workers get the skills training they need to adjust to the rapidly changing workforce.

Morneau has also said the Trudeau government is looking for ways to make home-buying more affordable for millennials — something that could be addressed in the budget.

https://www.canadianbusiness.com/busine ... -march-19/

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