The New Year - 2023 Predictions Thread
See 2022 predictions for fun review: new-year-2022-predictions-thread-2513961/
Will there be a crash?: Gradual extension of bear market to touch at least once below 3000 on SP500
Will there be a bull market?: No
Most likely "black swan" event:
-Energy crisis leads to debt defaults in financially weaker European nations.
-New more severe COVID variant emerges from China or US - or brand new pandemic virus that everyone tries to just ignore but fails to.
-Direct hit to a major eastern US city by a category 5 hurricane (minor market impact)
Predicted 2023 year end SP500: 3400
Make a prediction:
-Inflation will persist in some sectors but normalize in many as interest rate hikes will be intolerable to consumers, causing a stagflationary recession.
-Real estate correction will deepen into a crash.
-Saudis will take majority ownership in Twitter
Your investing 'recommendation': Wait a few months with cash in HISA equivalents then buy indices when shit hits the fan, and definitely do not buy in big (other than monthly passive investing) thinking there will be a big bull market from a starting point of, e.g. 3800 etc. Returns at 3800 are likely in the short term to be worse than HISA etc.
Your top tickers (I'm just going to do Canadian ones this time): RY (just cuz)
Your worst tickers: CTC.A (lower retail consumption), IFC (high health/death claims, lowest coupon of insurers), L (governments legislate price/profit caps on grocers)
Last year's predictions quoted below:
Blubbs wrote: ↑
Will there be a crash?: Not a sudden one
Will there be a bear market?: Yes
Most likely "black swan" event: Putin doing something crazy (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/putin- ... -1.6296150)
Predicted 2022 year end SP500: 4600
Make a prediction: Inflation will remain slightly elevated but ease as spending weakens and rates increase
Your investing 'recommendation': Invest in medium and large cap value plays and rotate a significant portion into growth and US indices during correction.
Your top tickers: BABA, BEPC, TRP
Your worst tickers: TSLA, APPL, NTR, CNR