Investing

The New Year - 2023 Predictions Thread

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  • Jan 9th, 2023 1:29 pm
[OP]
Deal Fanatic
Mar 21, 2013
5084 posts
8428 upvotes
Canada

The New Year - 2023 Predictions Thread

I guess this is an annual tradition now?

See 2022 predictions for fun review: new-year-2022-predictions-thread-2513961/

Here's mine:

Will there be a crash?: Gradual extension of bear market to touch at least once below 3000 on SP500
Will there be a bull market?: No
Most likely "black swan" event:
-Energy crisis leads to debt defaults in financially weaker European nations.
-New more severe COVID variant emerges from China or US - or brand new pandemic virus that everyone tries to just ignore but fails to.
-Direct hit to a major eastern US city by a category 5 hurricane (minor market impact)
Predicted 2023 year end SP500: 3400
Make a prediction:
-Inflation will persist in some sectors but normalize in many as interest rate hikes will be intolerable to consumers, causing a stagflationary recession.
-Real estate correction will deepen into a crash.
-Saudis will take majority ownership in Twitter
Your investing 'recommendation': Wait a few months with cash in HISA equivalents then buy indices when shit hits the fan, and definitely do not buy in big (other than monthly passive investing) thinking there will be a big bull market from a starting point of, e.g. 3800 etc. Returns at 3800 are likely in the short term to be worse than HISA etc.
Your top tickers (I'm just going to do Canadian ones this time): RY (just cuz)
Your worst tickers: CTC.A (lower retail consumption), IFC (high health/death claims, lowest coupon of insurers), L (governments legislate price/profit caps on grocers)

Last year's predictions quoted below:
Blubbs wrote:
Will there be a crash?: Not a sudden one
Will there be a bear market?: Yes
Most likely "black swan" event: Putin doing something crazy (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/putin- ... -1.6296150)
Predicted 2022 year end SP500: 4600
Make a prediction: Inflation will remain slightly elevated but ease as spending weakens and rates increase
Your investing 'recommendation': Invest in medium and large cap value plays and rotate a significant portion into growth and US indices during correction.
Your top tickers: BABA, BEPC, TRP
Your worst tickers: TSLA, APPL, NTR, CNR
51 replies
Deal Addict
Oct 1, 2006
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Montreal
When going back to the same thread from last year it is pretty obvious that no-one has an idea what the future will hold.
[OP]
Deal Fanatic
Mar 21, 2013
5084 posts
8428 upvotes
Canada
Germack wrote: When going back to the same thread from last year it is pretty obvious that no-one has an idea what the future will hold.
Do you think the people who posted there believed they were magical soothsayers? I know that you espouse the most boring form of investing, but that doesn't mean we can't have fun threads.

My predictions were not entirely accurate, but several of the main ones were and my portfolio outperformed yours easily in 2022.
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Dec 16, 2015
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Elon musk running for president
To the moon
Deal Addict
Jun 25, 2010
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following this thread to see what people think about next year.I myself got nothing to predict as I got no crystal ball Crystal Ball. I am sticking to my scheduled buy every month. If the market drops further, even better for us who are in the accumulation phase.
Big thanks to all the regular posters @rfd in the investing section. I’ve learned a tons from you guys .
“There are the people who don’t know, and the people who don’t know that they don’t know”- Treva84
Deal Fanatic
Aug 17, 2008
8989 posts
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I avoided the last few prognostications threads, because my investing timelines ≠ the Gregorian calendar. For the purpose of these threads, atm "fack if I know."

My current concern is that Xi has has lost the people. Short term bad, maybe longer term good though. Why is this a ST concern? Because he's unleashing his unvaccinated residents/citizens on the world. What's different this time is that most of the Western world has taken steps to protect themselves personally and business wise.

What I do know is that this is a thing again. Where are our fearless leaders, JT and CF?
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/28/us-will ... ovid-.html

And those with the means in China are getting the puck out of there. https://www.wsj.com/articles/wealthy-ch ... 1672146029

“The lockdowns were harsh,” Ms. Wu said. Now that the restrictions have largely been lifted, she said she would take the opportunity to return to Beijing more often but still planned to stay in Japan. And she said the interest among her friends in moving to Japan was greater than ever.

“I can tell for sure that there is going to be a swarm of people traveling to Japan as long as China lifts the current border controls, either for a short-term stay or long-term immigration,” said Ms. Wu, who agreed to be identified by her surname and the English given name she uses abroad.

Wang Qing, a Chinese businesswoman who has lived in Japan for nearly three decades, said that based on conversations with friends in China who want to move to Japan, she believes Covid restrictions and heavy-handed government policies have pushed some people over the edge.

Update

Slow to react again. Swing at the ball well after it went by them.

Canada to impose mandatory COVID-19 tests for travellers from China
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/ ... sts-china/
Last edited by MrMom on Dec 31st, 2022 6:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Expert
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Dec 12, 2009
25608 posts
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Toronto
Here are my predictions for 2023. I can't do much worse than 2022 predictions.

Will there be a crash?: Aren't we knee deep in one already? I see capitulation some time in H1 where absolute bottom is confirmed either new one or from 2022.
Will there be a bull market?: Not likely unless inflation is tamed. Unfortunately, there is no way to manufacture more workers, so wage inflation will persist as will housing related inflation. Maybe bull market in early 2024.
Most likely "black swan" event: Putin is removed from office but an evil brother from a different mother continues where he left off. I will stop short of predicting use of tactical nukes.
Predicted 2023 year end: S&P500 at 4000-4200
Make a prediction: Severe fall off in GDP once the shine of service consumption wears off. The BoC and FOMC might give up on the idea of 2% inflation target and settle for 3% instead of taking policy rates much higher than 5% given recessionary concerns.
Your investing 'recommendation': Wait until Q1 earnings season to gauge the level of earnings shrinkage. If earnings are flat, hold tight until Q2 earnings. If Q1 earnings tank, start buying on weakness and hope the Fed turns dovish.
Your top tickers: Canadian banks, CTC-A. Persistent high mortgage rates will help put a solid bottom to bank valuations. If CTC-A drops to ~$115 (6% yield), time to hold the nose and buy, buy, buy. The payout ratio is too low for dividend to be threatened even in recession.
Your worst tickers: Utilities with poor balance sheets that might not weather the high lending rates well. Thinking AQN.TO might do the unthinkable in the new year. AC stock will revert once consumers have had their taste of post-covid vacation and are tapped out on spending. Corporate travel will not save their bacon.
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Jr. Member
Aug 25, 2019
194 posts
149 upvotes
I never good at financial prediction but why not this time.

Will there be a crash?: just a correction. 1st dive in Q1 (3,400-3,500). Then in Q3 to 3,200-3,300. FED will be watching to intervene below that
Will there be a bull market?: after Q3-2023
Most likely "black swan" event: unlikely
Predicted 2023 year end: S&P500 4,000-4,100
Make a prediction: FED will step in with fresh cash after Q3-2023 (economy needs to shine before election 2024)
Your investing 'recommendation': will be buying in Q1 after <3,500; mostly tech. Then new load after Q3
Your top tickers: AMZN, DIS, SHOP, SQ, RIOT, OKTA, AYX, TDOC, U, UBER and a few more
Your worst tickers: oil&gas ones, utilities
Deal Guru
Dec 5, 2006
13455 posts
8836 upvotes
Markham
Last year, people were optimistic and we got stock down below 4000, but now people are pessimistic, I am wondering whether it will create a lot buying opportunities in 2023 and we will end up like 4500+
Banned
Aug 17, 2022
26 posts
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smartie wrote: Last year, people were optimistic and we got stock down below 4000, but now people are pessimistic, I am wondering whether it will create a lot buying opportunities in 2023 and we will end up like 4500+
Yeah, I like how people are predicting a further fall despite US market already being down 20%, by definition already a bear market. Recession and higher interest rates already factored in.
Analysts say it is rare for market to go down 2 years in a row - even more so to have two consecutive years to have 20% falls, which would be extreme.
As soon as any hint occurs that recession is here, and interest rate increases have stopped, the market will roar upwards - people forget markets are forward looking.
[OP]
Deal Fanatic
Mar 21, 2013
5084 posts
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cneclosingbell wrote: Yeah, I like how people are predicting a further fall despite US market already being down 20%, by definition already a bear market. Recession and higher interest rates already factored in.
Analysts say it is rare for market to go down 2 years in a row - even more so to have two consecutive years to have 20% falls, which would be extreme.
As soon as any hint occurs that recession is here, and interest rate increases have stopped, the market will roar upwards - people forget markets are forward looking.
P/E are still high compared to previous 20% falls. But you could be right!
Deal Guru
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Sep 21, 2007
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Winnipeg
Wll there be a crash?: yes, RE crash
Will there be a bull market?: yes in the summer.
Most likely "black swan" event:
- China decides to not sell oil to the US
Predicted 2023 year end SP500: 3200
Make a prediction:
-Airlines return to 85% of what 2019 Stock prices were by Fall 2023
WTI will still be above $40 by end of 2023
Your top tickers: CHR
Your worst tickers: PSFE
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
Sr. Member
Dec 13, 2010
913 posts
1416 upvotes
Vancouver
Ok, here's my 2023 predictions!

Will there be a crash?: No, the markets will be flat/slightly up by the end of 2023
Will there be a bull market?: Does a flat market equal a bull market? I guess by the technical definition of bull market there won't be one, but I do believe there will be a slight rally by the end of the year
Most likely "black swan" event: Collapse of the energy infrastructure in Europe, causing significant financial pain and lingering high inflation
Predicted 2023 year end SP500: 4041
Make a prediction: After another 0.25bps rate hike in early 2023, the BOC holds rates steady. Inflation data shows a return to sub-3% inflation, although prices remain sticky. BOC maintains the steady interest rate for all of 2023.
Your investing 'recommendation': Just buy VGRO
Your top tickers: Of the individual stocks I hold: RY, BAM, CP
Your worst tickers: For those I hold: EMA, KEY, BNS


Best of luck to all in 2023!!
Deal Fanatic
Aug 17, 2008
8989 posts
10140 upvotes
Part 1

I don't think ppl understand the concept of "Black Swan." Mathematically, it's the left side tail of a distribution curve. Extremely low probability events. Hello 2020/21 pandemic.

So far, all the negative events posted wouldn't constitute a left side "tail risk" event IMO. They are all too predictable and possible.

Image


Image

Source: PIMCO "Tail Risk"

Part 2

Are there other examples of tail risk that are not global in scope, but just as detrimental to investors who are "long" an asset? Yes.

I posted about BCE yesterday. Refer back to 2007 when the company became an LBO takeover candidate.

(Q) Who do you think were the investors at the greatest risk of incurring a loss?

(A) Answer will be posted tomorrow morning. I've actually posted the answer before. RFD homework for those who want to think a bit.

Steps taken since to mitigate the risk: TBA
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Dec 12, 2009
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cneclosingbell wrote: Yeah, I like how people are predicting a further fall despite US market already being down 20%, by definition already a bear market. Recession and higher interest rates already factored in.
Analysts say it is rare for market to go down 2 years in a row - even more so to have two consecutive years to have 20% falls, which would be extreme.
As soon as any hint occurs that recession is here, and interest rate increases have stopped, the market will roar upwards - people forget markets are forward looking.
Earnings have not really fallen yet because there is no recession yet. The question remains will there be a recession and how deep. If earnings fall due to recession, then P/E multiples will be elevated unless there is further price reversion.
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Deal Addict
Oct 21, 2014
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Germack wrote: When going back to the same thread from last year it is pretty obvious that no-one has an idea what the future will hold.
... however it will be revealing how much damage investors are going to cause to their financial futures following the dictates of mass media figures rather than investing systemically.
Member
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Dec 31, 2018
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Germack wrote: When going back to the same thread from last year it is pretty obvious that no-one has an idea what the future will hold.
This X100
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Dec 31, 2018
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I do also find it curious that people are negative and largely predicting a bad year, after this bad year. It's statistically not likely but tells us more how the mind of people works. This is why the only way to invest is systematically.
Deal Guru
Dec 5, 2006
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TrickleDownEconomics wrote: I do also find it curious that people are negative and largely predicting a bad year, after this bad year. It's statistically not likely but tells us more how the mind of people works. This is why the only way to invest is systematically.
You take this public forum too seriously lol
Sr. Member
Dec 13, 2010
913 posts
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Vancouver
Germack wrote: When going back to the same thread from last year it is pretty obvious that no-one has an idea what the future will hold.
Oh, no doubt - this thread isn't serious, it's for fun! I certainly can't predict anything at all, which is why the majority of my investment is just in VGRO. But I still enjoy the reading, analysis, and learning about stocks, industries, events, and potential impacts!

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