The New Year - 2023 Predictions Thread

When going back to the same thread from last year it is pretty obvious that no-one has an idea what the future will hold.

Germack wrote: ↑ When going back to the same thread from last year it is pretty obvious that no-one has an idea what the future will hold.

Do you think the people who posted there believed they were magical soothsayers? I know that you espouse the most boring form of investing, but that doesn't mean we can't have fun threads.

My predictions were not entirely accurate, but several of the main ones were and my portfolio outperformed yours easily in 2022.

following this thread to see what people think about next year.I myself got nothing to predict as I got no crystal ball . I am sticking to my scheduled buy every month. If the market drops further, even better for us who are in the accumulation phase.
Big thanks to all the regular posters @rfd in the investing section. I’ve learned a tons from you guys .

I avoided the last few prognostications threads, because my investing timelines ≠ the Gregorian calendar. For the purpose of these threads, atm "fack if I know."

My current concern is that Xi has has lost the people. Short term bad, maybe longer term good though. Why is this a ST concern? Because he's unleashing his unvaccinated residents/citizens on the world. What's different this time is that most of the Western world has taken steps to protect themselves personally and business wise.

What I do know is that this is a thing again. Where are our fearless leaders, JT and CF?
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/28/us-will ... ovid-.html

And those with the means in China are getting the puck out of there. https://www.wsj.com/articles/wealthy-ch ... 1672146029

“The lockdowns were harsh,” Ms. Wu said. Now that the restrictions have largely been lifted, she said she would take the opportunity to return to Beijing more often but still planned to stay in Japan. And she said the interest among her friends in moving to Japan was greater than ever.

“I can tell for sure that there is going to be a swarm of people traveling to Japan as long as China lifts the current border controls, either for a short-term stay or long-term immigration,” said Ms. Wu, who agreed to be identified by her surname and the English given name she uses abroad.

Wang Qing, a Chinese businesswoman who has lived in Japan for nearly three decades, said that based on conversations with friends in China who want to move to Japan, she believes Covid restrictions and heavy-handed government policies have pushed some people over the edge.

Update

Slow to react again. Swing at the ball well after it went by them.

Canada to impose mandatory COVID-19 tests for travellers from China
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/ ... sts-china/

Here are my predictions for 2023. I can't do much worse than 2022 predictions.

Will there be a crash?: Aren't we knee deep in one already? I see capitulation some time in H1 where absolute bottom is confirmed either new one or from 2022.
Will there be a bull market?: Not likely unless inflation is tamed. Unfortunately, there is no way to manufacture more workers, so wage inflation will persist as will housing related inflation. Maybe bull market in early 2024.
Most likely "black swan" event: Putin is removed from office but an evil brother from a different mother continues where he left off. I will stop short of predicting use of tactical nukes.
Predicted 2023 year end: S&P500 at 4000-4200
Make a prediction: Severe fall off in GDP once the shine of service consumption wears off. The BoC and FOMC might give up on the idea of 2% inflation target and settle for 3% instead of taking policy rates much higher than 5% given recessionary concerns.
Your investing 'recommendation': Wait until Q1 earnings season to gauge the level of earnings shrinkage. If earnings are flat, hold tight until Q2 earnings. If Q1 earnings tank, start buying on weakness and hope the Fed turns dovish.
Your top tickers: Canadian banks, CTC-A. Persistent high mortgage rates will help put a solid bottom to bank valuations. If CTC-A drops to ~$115 (6% yield), time to hold the nose and buy, buy, buy. The payout ratio is too low for dividend to be threatened even in recession.
Your worst tickers: Utilities with poor balance sheets that might not weather the high lending rates well. Thinking AQN.TO might do the unthinkable in the new year. AC stock will revert once consumers have had their taste of post-covid vacation and are tapped out on spending. Corporate travel will not save their bacon.

Last year, people were optimistic and we got stock down below 4000, but now people are pessimistic, I am wondering whether it will create a lot buying opportunities in 2023 and we will end up like 4500+

smartie wrote: ↑ Last year, people were optimistic and we got stock down below 4000, but now people are pessimistic, I am wondering whether it will create a lot buying opportunities in 2023 and we will end up like 4500+

Yeah, I like how people are predicting a further fall despite US market already being down 20%, by definition already a bear market. Recession and higher interest rates already factored in.
Analysts say it is rare for market to go down 2 years in a row - even more so to have two consecutive years to have 20% falls, which would be extreme.
As soon as any hint occurs that recession is here, and interest rate increases have stopped, the market will roar upwards - people forget markets are forward looking.

cneclosingbell wrote: ↑ Yeah, I like how people are predicting a further fall despite US market already being down 20%, by definition already a bear market. Recession and higher interest rates already factored in.
Analysts say it is rare for market to go down 2 years in a row - even more so to have two consecutive years to have 20% falls, which would be extreme.
As soon as any hint occurs that recession is here, and interest rate increases have stopped, the market will roar upwards - people forget markets are forward looking.

P/E are still high compared to previous 20% falls. But you could be right!

Wll there be a crash?: yes, RE crash
Will there be a bull market?: yes in the summer.
Most likely "black swan" event:
- China decides to not sell oil to the US
Predicted 2023 year end SP500: 3200
Make a prediction:
-Airlines return to 85% of what 2019 Stock prices were by Fall 2023
WTI will still be above $40 by end of 2023
Your top tickers: CHR
Your worst tickers: PSFE

Ok, here's my 2023 predictions!

Will there be a crash?: No, the markets will be flat/slightly up by the end of 2023
Will there be a bull market?: Does a flat market equal a bull market? I guess by the technical definition of bull market there won't be one, but I do believe there will be a slight rally by the end of the year
Most likely "black swan" event: Collapse of the energy infrastructure in Europe, causing significant financial pain and lingering high inflation
Predicted 2023 year end SP500: 4041
Make a prediction: After another 0.25bps rate hike in early 2023, the BOC holds rates steady. Inflation data shows a return to sub-3% inflation, although prices remain sticky. BOC maintains the steady interest rate for all of 2023.
Your investing 'recommendation': Just buy VGRO
Your top tickers: Of the individual stocks I hold: RY, BAM, CP
Your worst tickers: For those I hold: EMA, KEY, BNS


Best of luck to all in 2023!!

Part 1

I don't think ppl understand the concept of "Black Swan." Mathematically, it's the left side tail of a distribution curve. Extremely low probability events. Hello 2020/21 pandemic.

So far, all the negative events posted wouldn't constitute a left side "tail risk" event IMO. They are all too predictable and possible.






Source: PIMCO "Tail Risk"

Part 2

Are there other examples of tail risk that are not global in scope, but just as detrimental to investors who are "long" an asset? Yes.

I posted about BCE yesterday. Refer back to 2007 when the company became an LBO takeover candidate.

(Q) Who do you think were the investors at the greatest risk of incurring a loss?

(A) Answer will be posted tomorrow morning. I've actually posted the answer before. RFD homework for those who want to think a bit.

Steps taken since to mitigate the risk: TBA

cneclosingbell wrote: ↑ Yeah, I like how people are predicting a further fall despite US market already being down 20%, by definition already a bear market. Recession and higher interest rates already factored in.
Analysts say it is rare for market to go down 2 years in a row - even more so to have two consecutive years to have 20% falls, which would be extreme.
As soon as any hint occurs that recession is here, and interest rate increases have stopped, the market will roar upwards - people forget markets are forward looking.

Earnings have not really fallen yet because there is no recession yet. The question remains will there be a recession and how deep. If earnings fall due to recession, then P/E multiples will be elevated unless there is further price reversion.

Germack wrote: ↑ When going back to the same thread from last year it is pretty obvious that no-one has an idea what the future will hold.

... however it will be revealing how much damage investors are going to cause to their financial futures following the dictates of mass media figures rather than investing systemically.

Germack wrote: ↑ When going back to the same thread from last year it is pretty obvious that no-one has an idea what the future will hold.

This X100

I do also find it curious that people are negative and largely predicting a bad year, after this bad year. It's statistically not likely but tells us more how the mind of people works. This is why the only way to invest is systematically.

TrickleDownEconomics wrote: ↑ I do also find it curious that people are negative and largely predicting a bad year, after this bad year. It's statistically not likely but tells us more how the mind of people works. This is why the only way to invest is systematically.

You take this public forum too seriously lol

Germack wrote: ↑ When going back to the same thread from last year it is pretty obvious that no-one has an idea what the future will hold.

Oh, no doubt - this thread isn't serious, it's for fun! I certainly can't predict anything at all, which is why the majority of my investment is just in VGRO. But I still enjoy the reading, analysis, and learning about stocks, industries, events, and potential impacts!