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is now the time to invest in oil stocks?

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  • Mar 4th, 2024 9:55 am
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Deal Addict
Mar 22, 2010
4133 posts
2172 upvotes
endokuken wrote: Although it's wishful thinking, hoping for oil to go up to $45 so i can finally get out :| . I'm pretty sure this isn't really a rally (yet).
Going to be harder to get out towards the Fed's meeting. Once they increase the rate, stronger USD will be hard on HOU.
Deal Addict
Jan 3, 2013
2807 posts
1152 upvotes
Sidney
rapashoo wrote: Going to be harder to get out towards the Fed's meeting. Once they increase the rate, stronger USD will be hard on HOU.
Not to mention EAI releases the inventory numbers tomorrow, its speculated that inventories rose by ANOTHER 1 million barrels.

I love that my HOU is going up, and I'm going to take profits soon....but its pretty crummy that a commodity can only flash-increase because of military actions and fear, and not underlying fundamentals. :(
Deal Addict
Jan 3, 2013
2807 posts
1152 upvotes
Sidney
rapashoo wrote: Going to be harder to get out towards the Fed's meeting. Once they increase the rate, stronger USD will be hard on HOU.
And if OPEC doesn't actually curtail production after the Dec 4th meeting...watch out!
Deal Addict
May 28, 2006
2389 posts
181 upvotes
Jeenyus1 wrote: Turkish rebels have also executed the pilots - *Video not suitable for work or for the squeamish* - https://youtu.be/NVJ7Q097gXM
I heard it was Syrian rebels that were shooting at the Russian pilots as they were parachuting down. I've seen the blown out bloody eye socket of the pilot and it looked like he was shot at.

If indeed it was the turks that shot the Russians as they are in eject mode that's more serious than shooting at a jet.
Deal Addict
Nov 28, 2010
1374 posts
345 upvotes
Brampton
favelle75 wrote: Not to mention EAI releases the inventory numbers tomorrow, its speculated that inventories rose by ANOTHER 1 million barrels.

I love that my HOU is going up, and I'm going to take profits soon....but its pretty crummy that a commodity can only flash-increase because of military actions and fear, and not underlying fundamentals. :(
At least you're looking at a profit. I'm down in both hou and uwti. should have sold when i had the chance at 3.82 and 7.7 respectively. have orders to sell at those prices, but not sure if it will reach those levels the rest of the day :(
Deal Addict
Jan 3, 2013
2807 posts
1152 upvotes
Sidney
endokuken wrote: At least you're looking at a profit. I'm down in both hou and uwti. should have sold when i had the chance at 3.82 and 7.7 respectively. have orders to sell at those prices, but not sure if it will reach those levels the rest of the day :(
When did you buy HOU and for what reason?
Deal Addict
Jan 3, 2013
2807 posts
1152 upvotes
Sidney
Out of HOU at $4.70. No thanks. Bought in at $4.48....don't see any reason other than the threat of war for the increase. There is still literally TOO MUCH oil lying around.

Haven't started a position in HOD however. Too risky right now.
Deal Addict
Dec 11, 2010
1700 posts
137 upvotes
Chickened out and bought some more oil companies. I can't stand seeing stocks green and I'm not a part of it!
Deal Addict
Nov 28, 2010
1374 posts
345 upvotes
Brampton
favelle75 wrote: When did you buy HOU and for what reason?
I started few weeks ago. I guess I was kinda thinking I could make a profit by holding it short term at slightly over $4 as I noticed it was bouncing between mid 4.xx to $5.5x. I've always been on the fence about going all out HOD, but I've always been way more hesitant to go short, even though I always feel I should have after the fact.
Deal Addict
Jan 3, 2013
2807 posts
1152 upvotes
Sidney
endokuken wrote: I started few weeks ago. I guess I was kinda thinking I could make a profit by holding it short term at slightly over $4 as I noticed it was bouncing between mid 4.xx to $5.5x. I've always been on the fence about going all out HOD, but I've always been way more hesitant to go short, even though I always feel I should have after the fact.
Yeah, its going to take a change in thinking (and actions) by OPEC or something just as drastic to get oil to move to the positive. I won't be buying before that. At least not HOU. But XEG or some quality oil stocks I have no problems buying now. I don't mind having them dip a little bit more when their upside is so huge.
Deal Addict
Jan 3, 2013
2807 posts
1152 upvotes
Sidney
insurance1 wrote: Chickened out and bought some more oil companies. I can't stand seeing stocks green and I'm not a part of it!
So buy high and sell low?
Deal Addict
Nov 28, 2010
1374 posts
345 upvotes
Brampton
favelle75 wrote: Yeah, its going to take a change in thinking (and actions) by OPEC or something just as drastic to get oil to move to the positive. I won't be buying before that. At least not HOU. But XEG or some quality oil stocks I have no problems buying now. I don't mind having them dip a little bit more when their upside is so huge.
Yeah I've had xeg, and it's been a lot less volatile with these huge oil swings in recent times, so I'll continue adding on the dips. Meanwhile just sold a majority of the hou I held at $3.71. I'm anticipating it will fall back to $3.40s or lower if rig counts are going up again
Deal Addict
Jan 3, 2013
2807 posts
1152 upvotes
Sidney
endokuken wrote: Yeah I've had xeg, and it's been a lot less volatile with these huge oil swings in recent times, so I'll continue adding on the dips. Meanwhile just sold a majority of the hou I held at $3.71. I'm anticipating it will fall back to $3.40s or lower if rig counts are going up again
Yeah, with XEG holding actual oil companies, you get other factors like hedging, divvies, buyer sentiment, etc. So even when the commodity is down, things like XEG can be up. And with oil going down soooo low, and the stocks being so beaten up, investors look for ANY piece of good news to try and hold their hats onto.
Deal Addict
Jan 3, 2013
2807 posts
1152 upvotes
Sidney
If you're wondering why the biggy drop in oil right after market close its because API numbers were released. Forecast was for 200,000 barrel decline....actual numbers was a 2.6 million barrel INCREASE! Cushings increased by 1.9 million. Ouch. But all those rigs taken offline?? LOL. Yeah, they ain't taked down the best producing rigs people. Rig count means nothing (yet).
Deal Addict
Dec 11, 2010
1700 posts
137 upvotes
favelle75 wrote: If you're wondering why the biggy drop in oil right after market close its because API numbers were released. Forecast was for 200,000 barrel decline....actual numbers was a 2.6 million barrel INCREASE! Cushings increased by 1.9 million. Ouch. But all those rigs taken offline?? LOL. Yeah, they ain't taked down the best producing rigs people. Rig count means nothing (yet).
Considering we're pretty much at WW3, I think the market won't really react that much to fundamentals at this point. It's all about fear.
Deal Addict
Jan 3, 2013
2807 posts
1152 upvotes
Sidney
insurance1 wrote: Considering we're pretty much at WW3, I think the market won't really react that much to fundamentals at this point. It's all about fear.
Fear only takes you to a certain point. If you LITERALLY cannot buy anymore oil because you have no place left to put it, you aren't going to buy more oil, lol.
Deal Addict
Nov 28, 2010
1374 posts
345 upvotes
Brampton
favelle75 wrote: If you're wondering why the biggy drop in oil right after market close its because API numbers were released. Forecast was for 200,000 barrel decline....actual numbers was a 2.6 million barrel INCREASE! Cushings increased by 1.9 million. Ouch. But all those rigs taken offline?? LOL. Yeah, they ain't taked down the best producing rigs people. Rig count means nothing (yet).
It didn't seem to drop that much at close, but now it's showing at premarket so far today. Are rig counts & production expected to keep going up on a weekly basis as this doesn't seem like a good strategy to "help" the economy/prices recover lol
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Oct 9, 2008
5684 posts
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Thornhill
U.S. Airlines Bet on Long Oil Slump as Millions Lost to Hedging

"Delta said last month that it hedged 5 percent of its fuel for next year, down from 20 to 25 percent announced in May and 30 to 40 percent announced last year for 2015. United is 17 percent hedged for next year, Gerald Laderman, acting chief financial officer, said last month on an earnings call. In October 2014, the company said it was 35 percent hedged for the following 12 months."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... to-hedging

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If we use the 25% of DALs previous May oil hedging compared to next year's - the reduction of their oil hedging is 133%.

United Airlines has reduced their hedging for next year by 69%.

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Hate to say it, but commodities really needs a full blown geopolitical crisis to kickoff in 2016 for any sort of premium to these prices...
Deal Addict
Jan 3, 2013
2807 posts
1152 upvotes
Sidney
Jeenyus1 wrote: U.S. Airlines Bet on Long Oil Slump as Millions Lost to Hedging

"Delta said last month that it hedged 5 percent of its fuel for next year, down from 20 to 25 percent announced in May and 30 to 40 percent announced last year for 2015. United is 17 percent hedged for next year, Gerald Laderman, acting chief financial officer, said last month on an earnings call. In October 2014, the company said it was 35 percent hedged for the following 12 months."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... to-hedging

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If we use the 25% of DALs previous May oil hedging compared to next year's - the reduction of their oil hedging is 133%.

United Airlines has reduced their hedging for next year by 69%.
Which is funny because if the get greedy and decide not to hedge now and there's a catalyst and oil shoots up, they "lose millions" again, ha ha!

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