Investing

is now the time to invest in oil stocks?

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  • May 23rd, 2022 12:00 pm
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Deal Addict
Jul 12, 2008
4345 posts
1254 upvotes
GTA
MrMom wrote: @bigblue1ca Get your commodities and bright white sports car while you can.
Reading Eric Nutall on Twitter the last few weeks, it can come with a nice Model for men/women that are into that.
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User avatar
Dec 2, 2017
750 posts
863 upvotes


Congrats everybody. We did that


"Speaking at ARK's monthly webinar, Wood predicts "a very serious correction in commodity prices" and says that she would be "surprised" if oil prices hit $70 again, according to Bloomberg."
timestamp May 11, 2021 2:24 PM ET
Deal Addict
Jan 5, 2018
1245 posts
985 upvotes
Great news for people like us we hold 20-30% oil portfolio. Bad news for every driver in the world lol....
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Deal Addict
Jul 30, 2012
1444 posts
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EuRaFree wrote:

Congrats everybody. We did that


"Speaking at ARK's monthly webinar, Wood predicts "a very serious correction in commodity prices" and says that she would be "surprised" if oil prices hit $70 again, according to Bloomberg."
timestamp May 11, 2021 2:24 PM ET
The Oil price itself has not really been the problem since $60 WTI for producers' positive cashflow. Equity flow to the producers, mid streams, etc has been generally still weak. Yes, many of us have triple digit annualized gains on oil positions but valuations are still well below historic levels.

The S&P historically was up to 15% sector weighted but currently stands at 2.94%. Even the TSX during bullish periods has been as high as 30% energy weight but currently 12.9%... The issue remains institutional money is still largely on the sidelines and still the question mark if and when they will re-enter or if the ESG movement has permanently prevented higher money flows from returning.
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Dec 2, 2017
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DealRNothing wrote: The Oil price itself has not really been the problem since $60 WTI for producers' positive cashflow. Equity flow to the producers, mid streams, etc has been generally still weak. Yes, many of us have triple digit annualized gains on oil positions but valuations are still well below historic levels.

The S&P historically was up to 15% sector weighted but currently stands at 2.94%. Even the TSX during bullish periods has been as high as 30% energy weight but currently 12.9%... The issue remains institutional money is still largely on the sidelines and still the question mark if and when they will re-enter or if the ESG movement has permanently prevented higher money flows from returning.
That's exactly why I'm staying put. Trading in and out, but still maintaining 20% + target ratio in energy sector.
We are still at the bottom historically, yes. And I expect another leg up at least in the short to med term.
Deal Addict
Jul 30, 2012
1444 posts
1909 upvotes
DealRNothing wrote: The Oil price itself has not really been the problem since $60 WTI for producers' positive cashflow. Equity flow to the producers, mid streams, etc has been generally still weak. Yes, many of us have triple digit annualized gains on oil positions but valuations are still well below historic levels.
The S&P historically was up to 15% sector weighted but currently stands at 2.94%. Even the TSX during bullish periods has been as high as 30% energy weight but currently 12.9%... The issue remains institutional money is still largely on the sidelines and still the question mark if and when they will re-enter or if the ESG movement has permanently prevented higher money flows from returning.
EuRaFree wrote: That's exactly why I'm staying put. Trading in and out, but still maintaining 20% + target ratio in energy sector.
We are still at the bottom historically, yes. And I expect another leg up at least in the short to med term.
I'm guessing we're on similar thoughts with respect to oil equities, generally. Seems odd to complain about stocks generating triple digit returns but Fundamentals still suggest another 20>40% depending on the name.

I think we have more to go as well and not calling the run over. We haven't even re-normalized Global oil demand since LY demand destruction.
Sr. Member
Sep 28, 2011
650 posts
1070 upvotes
Winnipeg
Options Traders Bet on Return of $100 Oil
Investors have scooped up call options tied to crude prices hitting milestone for first time since gush of U.S. oil in 2014

Traders have alighted on what some believe to be a one-way bet in the world’s most important commodity market: oil prices going to $100 a barrel.

They have scooped up call options tied to Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude-oil prices reaching $100 by the end of next year. Oil prices haven’t topped that milestone since 2014, when a gush of U.S. crude depressed energy markets.

Owners of $100 options—now the most widely owned WTI call contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange—are making a leveraged bet that oil prices will hurtle higher after already surging more than 40% this year. The roaring rally, goosed by thawing coronavirus restrictions, has lifted WTI prices to their highest level since 2018 at almost $70 a barrel and average U.S. gasoline prices above $3 a gallon, according to GasBuddy....
https://www.wsj.com/articles/options-tr ... 1623061227
Sr. Member
Aug 14, 2007
561 posts
312 upvotes
Ottawa
DealRNothing wrote: I'm guessing we're on similar thoughts with respect to oil equities, generally. Seems odd to complain about stocks generating triple digit returns but Fundamentals still suggest another 20>40% depending on the name.

I think we have more to go as well and not calling the run over. We haven't even re-normalized Global oil demand since LY demand destruction.
I guess there will be easy money can be make for oil stocks until mid August.

Have been holding oil stocks since April 2020, but I will force myself to take profit by August.
Member
Jan 9, 2018
432 posts
527 upvotes
I have been holding SUNCOR at average $16.xx , not sure when to sell it ...... First i thought i would sell all at $30 , but now when I am reading all these oil prices reports I am thinking to hold it for few more months ...Any advice ?
Newbie
Jul 23, 2019
23 posts
15 upvotes
EddandEddie wrote: I have been holding SUNCOR at average $16.xx , not sure when to sell it ...... First i thought i would sell all at $30 , but now when I am reading all these oil prices reports I am thinking to hold it for few more months ...Any advice ?
I have it at 18.XX. I plan to hold it for a bit longer. Insiders are buying.

On June 1, president and chief executive officer Mark Little invested over $517,000 in shares of Suncor. He bought 17,250 shares at a cost per share of $29.981, after which this specific account held 76,505 shares.

The same day, Kris Smith, executive vice-president of Downstream, acquired 8,900 shares at a price per share of $29.017, raising this particular account’s position to 30,482 shares. The cost of this purchase exceeded $258,000.
Member
Jan 9, 2018
432 posts
527 upvotes
Thanks , that is good to know that insiders are buying at those prices..
Randomwalk wrote: I have it at 18.XX. I plan to hold it for a bit longer. Insiders are buying.

On June 1, president and chief executive officer Mark Little invested over $517,000 in shares of Suncor. He bought 17,250 shares at a cost per share of $29.981, after which this specific account held 76,505 shares.

The same day, Kris Smith, executive vice-president of Downstream, acquired 8,900 shares at a price per share of $29.017, raising this particular account’s position to 30,482 shares. The cost of this purchase exceeded $258,000.
Deal Addict
Jan 5, 2018
1245 posts
985 upvotes
EddandEddie wrote: Thanks , that is good to know that insiders are buying at those prices..
Is it possible that they are just underselling the company's position in the industry while accumulating their shares under the negative view of the company...

They clearly know Suncor is doing exceptional right now...I have been very hesitant to unload Suncor shares myself while the share price struggled against the competitors..
NOT A WOMAN. JUST GOT A WEIRD NAME. I AM A MAN. THANKS.
Deal Addict
Jul 12, 2008
4345 posts
1254 upvotes
GTA
EddandEddie wrote: I have been holding SUNCOR at average $16.xx , not sure when to sell it ...... First i thought i would sell all at $30 , but now when I am reading all these oil prices reports I am thinking to hold it for few more months ...Any advice ?
I am holding my Suncor until they announce dividend increases or more buybacks towards the end of the year/Q1.

I have yet to see a good reason why IMO and CNQ trade well above their pre-pandemic levels while Suncor is nowhere near its level of $45 beyond the dividend cut that Suncor did that the other 2 did not do.

Suncor promised a quiet 2021 in terms of capital spending, I think it’s a good idea to wait a bit.
Member
Jan 9, 2018
432 posts
527 upvotes
badmus wrote: I am holding my Suncor until they announce dividend increases or more buybacks towards the end of the year/Q1.

I have yet to see a good reason why IMO and CNQ trade well above their pre-pandemic levels while Suncor is nowhere near its level of $45 beyond the dividend cut that Suncor did that the other 2 did not do.

Suncor promised a quiet 2021 in terms of capital spending, I think it’s a good idea to wait a bit.
Did the management give any idea on when they will return to pre pandemic dividend levels ?
Deal Expert
Jan 27, 2006
19521 posts
12584 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
EuRaFree wrote:

Congrats everybody. We did that


"Speaking at ARK's monthly webinar, Wood predicts "a very serious correction in commodity prices" and says that she would be "surprised" if oil prices hit $70 again, according to Bloomberg."
timestamp May 11, 2021 2:24 PM ET
Wood knows that the speculative money that would normally be plowing into her funds is in the commodities right now and as long as they continue to move, her funds will see outflows. Statements like these show that she might have been more lucky than good and been at the right place and the right time to make the call on tech.
Deal Expert
Jan 27, 2006
19521 posts
12584 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
jenneth wrote: Great news for people like us we hold 20-30% oil portfolio. Bad news for every driver in the world lol....
Good news for the environmental movement as well as they want higher prices to reduce consumption.
Deal Addict
Mar 21, 2013
4432 posts
6960 upvotes
Canada
craftsman wrote: Wood knows that the speculative money that would normally be plowing into her funds is in the commodities right now and as long as they continue to move, her funds will see outflows. Statements like these show that she might have been more lucky than good and been at the right place and the right time to make the call on tech.
I think there is no doubt she was more lucky than smart. Tesla alone made her career.
Deal Expert
Jan 27, 2006
19521 posts
12584 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
DealRNothing wrote: The S&P historically was up to 15% sector weighted but currently stands at 2.94%. Even the TSX during bullish periods has been as high as 30% energy weight but currently 12.9%... The issue remains institutional money is still largely on the sidelines and still the question mark if and when they will re-enter or if the ESG movement has permanently prevented higher money flows from returning.
The big difference in the past several months is we are seeing money managers actually talk about investing in oil. If you scroll back a year or two, those same big money managers were all saying that oil was dead/uninvestable/BIG SELL. No one called into or asked about oil stocks on shows like MarketCall when non-oil fund managers were on and no oil stocks were ever recommended by the generalist fund managers. Today, the whole picture is different. I suspect that the energy returns keep rolling in, those private wealth funds who publically sold off a year ago will start feeling the heat from investors as their returns start to drop below the benchmarks as their ESG grow drivers continue to lag the marketplace forcing them to return to energy plays.
Deal Expert
Jan 27, 2006
19521 posts
12584 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
audiorichard wrote: I guess there will be easy money can be make for oil stocks until mid August.

Have been holding oil stocks since April 2020, but I will force myself to take profit by August.
August might be the inflection point upwards as we should see good demand eating up more supply as Europe opens and the thought of a return to transcontinental travel starts up again.
Deal Expert
Jan 27, 2006
19521 posts
12584 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
EddandEddie wrote: I have been holding SUNCOR at average $16.xx , not sure when to sell it ...... First i thought i would sell all at $30 , but now when I am reading all these oil prices reports I am thinking to hold it for few more months ...Any advice ?
I would start thinking about removing your cost base from the trade now that we are close to a double. You can always invest in other oil stocks to keep in the sector if you want to in order to diversify single company risk. Or you can take your cost base and plug it into a bank.

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