Investing

is now the time to invest in oil stocks?

  • Last Updated:
  • Mar 4th, 2024 9:55 am
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Deal Fanatic
Jul 12, 2008
6048 posts
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GTA
EuRaFree wrote: People overestimating the importance of reinstating dividend. So even though I'm long VET, $30+ is unrealistic in a near future. I wouldn't mind, though.
Same goes to SU.
Ignoring the performance of IMO and CNQ, there were several names last year that jumped, one as much as 50% (BPF.UN) on the reinstatement of dividends/special dividend. There is some correlation but it’s not the whole story.

I hold VET, it has some debt which it has been paying down, reinitiating the dividend or a significant buyback announcement should move it but $30 is quite far for now.
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Dec 21, 2005
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MrMom wrote: Quiet rise in AAV (https://invst.ly/v0l5f) thanks to a Entropy update.

PR;
Entropy Inc. Announces Multiple CCS Project Evaluation Engagements Totaling Approximately 1 Million Tonnes Per Annum, and Expands Executive Team and Board of Directors
Jun 02, 2021, 19:34 ET
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/e ... 08182.html

CALGARY, AB, June 2, 2021 /CNW/ - Entropy Inc. ("Entropy" or the "Corporation", a subsidiary of Advantage Energy Ltd.) is pleased to announce Memoranda of Understanding ("MOUs") with four separate emitting corporations to develop Carbon Capture and Storage ("CCS") projects totaling approximately 1 million tonnes per annum ("TPA").

Apr 1st, 2021 4:26 pm



Update

Out at $4.48
Nuttall commented on Entropy
https://financialpost.com/commodities/e ... plications
💡😃😂😄
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
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@charliebrown Thx. He's been beating that drum for a while on Twitter.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Guru
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Sep 21, 2007
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@sleepyguy .. so.. I'm back in VET.. as of this week. Holding on now that there is a clear demand for oil now.
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
Deal Addict
Apr 5, 2017
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I can directly correlate Suncor/Oil price movement based on how many chem trails I see in the skies.

I was enjoying the clear uncluttered skies during COVID though.
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Sep 21, 2007
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pfcresu wrote: y VET?
Y not
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
Deal Addict
Sep 2, 2004
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I sold my position in CNQ this morning. I have it in two accounts and this was the smaller position, but looking at the historical chart it has never really broken above the $50 level so I thought this was a reasonable exit point. Purchase price was low 20s. I'm undecided if I'll move the funds to another energy name with more upside left or move them to another sector. I haven't updated my research numbers in a while as I was not planning on doing much buying so I'll have to get on that.
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
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Capt. wrote: I sold my position in CNQ this morning. I have it in two accounts and this was the smaller position, but looking at the historical chart it has never really broken above the $50 level so I thought this was a reasonable exit point. Purchase price was low 20s. I'm undecided if I'll move the funds to another energy name with more upside left or move them to another sector. I haven't updated my research numbers in a while as I was not planning on doing much buying so I'll have to get on that.
I've been thinking about locking in my profit on CNQ as well. Despite the GS upgrade; there was no discernible move today, although the outlook still looks good. I let my line go. Bot this back in April 2020 (attached).

Update

WRT to CL/BZ, I think the risk is to the upside, in that there is no new Iran nuclear agreement.
Images
  • CNQ buy.png
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Sr. Member
Nov 24, 2016
684 posts
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I'm waiting for the ex div date to offload. Sold most of my CNQ a while back. After the ex date I'll get rid of the rest. Been selling calls at 32 dollars on Suncor for a long time. I have 5 calls expiring on the 18th and this time they may be taken away from me.

Once SU and CNQ are sold, my only oil exposure will be through Enbridge. I don't want to experience the meltdown of March 2020 ever again lol.
Deal Expert
Jan 27, 2006
21844 posts
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Vancouver, BC
Still holding on to my oil positions and actually thinking of buying more. The IEA stated today that they expect oil demand to EXCEED pre-COVID levels by the end of 2022 - Oil demand to surpass pre-pandemic levels by end of 2022, says IEA
Oil demand is expected to exceed pre-coronavirus levels by the end of 2022, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, with the body calling on world producers to “open the taps”.

Consumption declined by a record 8.6m barrels a day last year as coronavirus raged around the world. It is expected to rebound by 5.4m b/d this year as vaccines are rolled out and countries open up again.
Considering most oil producers have cut back on any exploration and development of plays in the past 18 months, I would expect that the taps would be harder to open and when they are open, the flow won't be as strong as needed to cap oil prices.
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Sep 21, 2007
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craftsman wrote: Still holding on to my oil positions and actually thinking of buying more. The IEA stated today that they expect oil demand to EXCEED pre-COVID levels by the end of 2022 - Oil demand to surpass pre-pandemic levels by end of 2022, says IEA



Considering most oil producers have cut back on any exploration and development of plays in the past 18 months, I would expect that the taps would be harder to open and when they are open, the flow won't be as strong as needed to cap oil prices.
I bought 200 more VET today.
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
Deal Addict
Jul 30, 2012
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MashGhasem wrote: I'm waiting for the ex div date to offload. Sold most of my CNQ a while back. After the ex date I'll get rid of the rest. Been selling calls at 32 dollars on Suncor for a long time. I have 5 calls expiring on the 18th and this time they may be taken away from me.

Once SU and CNQ are sold, my only oil exposure will be through Enbridge. I don't want to experience the meltdown of March 2020 ever again lol.
I guarantee if you remain in equity markets and are are young enough, you will Winking Face. Sector diversification can be important, but in true market sell-offs, all sectors eventually correlate to the downside. March '20 correlations proved out no different than other historic stock market corrections I've been through.
Sr. Member
Nov 24, 2016
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DealRNothing wrote: I guarantee if you remain in equity markets and are are young enough, you will Winking Face. Sector diversification can be important, but in true market sell-offs, all sectors eventually correlate to the downside. March '20 correlations proved out no different than other historic stock market corrections I've been through.
Well, obviously you're right. This was my first true meltdown experience. I held to everything like a champ and where I sold it was simply to go from one -50% to another -50% that I thought was better quality. Out of my 20+ stocks, I only sold one out of fear and lack of experience and that was IPL. When it hit 6-7 I called it. I think I was -70% on that when I sold.

When I say I don't want to experience March 2020 ever again I'm not talking about market meltdowns generally. Oil stocks went down 75% in seemingly no time at all. In... what 2 weeks they were down 70-80% right? I was balls deep in Suncor, CNQ, Enbridge, IPL and a couple of others. So my portfolio got absolutely destroyed in that 2 week period. Thankfully I quickly borrowed money and invested as much as I could and reaped the gains in the months after. Most of my IPL loss was in a taxable account so I managed to go back to gains from years before and get a reassessment and get some money back that way.

Sure, other cyclicals also had a meltdown. But there was something about that -70% in oil stocks and barrels of oil being sold at negative 37 dollars that made me weak in the knees like nothing before. I made up my mind to sell out of oil stocks right then and there but only once they recovered. I'm still waiting for Suncor to hit my 32 target lol.

March 2020 was generally wonderful. I'm up well over 100% on some quality stocks for example. But that IPL loss will always sting. I got married to that stock in 2019. I knew about the debt problems etc... but I was convinced about the prospects of their polypropylene venture etc.... But when it dropped like a rock 80% in 2 weeks I realized why quality is important and why being in commodities isn't for me.

With all that said, I will always hold on to Enbridge. I think I first bought ENB in my taxable account 3 years ago. It was probably my first dividend stock. Still have it. Will never sell that boy. But the producers have to go.
Deal Addict
Jan 5, 2018
2725 posts
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craftsman wrote: Still holding on to my oil positions and actually thinking of buying more. The IEA stated today that they expect oil demand to EXCEED pre-COVID levels by the end of 2022 - Oil demand to surpass pre-pandemic levels by end of 2022, says IEA



Considering most oil producers have cut back on any exploration and development of plays in the past 18 months, I would expect that the taps would be harder to open and when they are open, the flow won't be as strong as needed to cap oil prices.

A lot of investors are hesitant to get in the drill baby drill again. For the right reasons too... It's great that America can be self sufficient in oil production but really the amount of investment required to generate those commodities was just too insane and risky.... Plus OPEC went balls deep trying to screw America and crashed the oil prices in order to bankrupt their competitors.

It worked.

People will be very hesitant to invest in oil exploration ever again...especially shale gas....and the investors are expecting that gasoline vehicles will disappear over time....

This is why I am so bullish for oil industry. Big players will get stronger. Medium cap companies will become even more profitable. Win win for those who believe in the future of oil.
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Deal Expert
Jan 27, 2006
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jenneth wrote: A lot of investors are hesitant to get in the drill baby drill again. For the right reasons too... It's great that America can be self sufficient in oil production but really the amount of investment required to generate those commodities was just too insane and risky.... Plus OPEC went balls deep trying to screw America and crashed the oil prices in order to bankrupt their competitors.

It worked.

People will be very hesitant to invest in oil exploration ever again...especially shale gas....and the investors are expecting that gasoline vehicles will disappear over time....

This is why I am so bullish for oil industry. Big players will get stronger. Medium cap companies will become even more profitable. Win win for those who believe in the future of oil.
Heck, the companies are making tons of money now and are even in better shape now than they were heading into the COVID shutdown as they are paying down debt at a crazy rate. Small leverage plays will probably make the most money as it happens in all of these runs - ie companies that were in debt up to their eyeballs will now be able to get out of that debt while their stock price reflects the previous debt situation.

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