Investing

is now the time to invest in oil stocks?

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  • Jan 20th, 2021 12:02 am
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Deal Expert
May 30, 2005
44737 posts
5327 upvotes
Richmond Hill
masterhapposai wrote: I figured this storage was hurting the oil price. If they don't sell, some people think this build up of storage will drive prices down, so more workers means even more storage and lower oil price in this theory:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/u-s-oil ... -1.2981533
Don't confuse oil and gasoline. The storage at Cushing stores oil, not gas. As storage runs out, less people are interested in buying oil as there is nowhere to store it. As the strike ends, there will be higher gasoline refinery production, lowering oil inventories, which as we all know should push oil prices up. At the same time it should push gasoline prices down.
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Deal Addict
Feb 7, 2008
1527 posts
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Toronto
So far, we get all bearish news and rumors this week except that bull trap API -400k number :facepalm: and possible end of strike on refinery
Deal Fanatic
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Jul 19, 2003
8087 posts
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Jon Lai wrote: Don't confuse oil and gasoline. The storage at Cushing stores oil, not gas. As storage runs out, less people are interested in buying oil as there is nowhere to store it. As the strike ends, there will be higher gasoline refinery production, lowering oil inventories, which as we all know should push oil prices up. At the same time it should push gasoline prices down.
thanks, wasn't thinking that way.

kept thinking it would only put more oil on market or reduce demand
Member
Nov 8, 2009
455 posts
157 upvotes
oajlu wrote: I will consider to add more on hou if crude price is under $42.
I have a $10k budget on hou/hod, and i used 5k yesterday.
That's a pretty crazy bet. I guess you just plan on holding this all the way through? Just be careful is all I have to say. Just so you know, oil 'may only' rebound to $55-60 level for this year so there's a good chance you may be under water on this one for at least a year.

Anyways, oil has definitely now broken support and it's taken a week or two longer than I thought it would. $42 here we come?
Deal Addict
Jan 16, 2015
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Cochrane, AB
I told you guys HOU is a stinker. Should have listened to me.
Deal Addict
Feb 7, 2008
1527 posts
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Toronto
TGokou wrote: That's a pretty crazy bet. I guess you just plan on holding this all the way through? Just be careful is all I have to say. Just so you know, oil 'may only' rebound to $55-60 level for this year so there's a good chance you may be under water on this one for at least a year.

Anyways, oil has definitely now broken support and it's taken a week or two longer than I thought it would. $42 here we come?
thanks for reminding me the risk

I know it's a big decision, but I look at Jan 29 and early 2009 case. When oil price reach to bottom, everyone is in panic mode and afraid of the long bearish trend.
Of course, we don't know what is the bottom price this time, it might already take place on Jan 29 or $40, $35 or even $25 in coming weeks. When I bought HOU @ 7.77 yesterday, I though it's very good price.
I use hou/hod investment as a lesson to catch the best price for my long term investment (3mo+ to 18mos or more) on SU, HSE, XEG, CNQ, and energy companies with solid FS.
I plan to reduce my investment on hou/hod to 3k/6k and put 30k in tfsa into energy sector for long term investment.
I still need to figure out what to do with my other cash. and I don't want to put too much fund into energy sectors even though I like buy low sell high.
I sold majority of my MF last summer when TSX was around 15500...and I have put majority in the saving account since then for 1% interest rate :(
Deal Addict
Jan 16, 2015
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Cochrane, AB
Jon Lai wrote: What's your point? I'm still up 20% since January.
My point is that I'm right.
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Jul 19, 2003
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JoeStale wrote: My point is that I'm right.
If I leverage short it down to $25, I'd have made more than anyone investing into it. So it can still be a good idea to trade oil.

I've been pretty sure it would go down a ton for a while, I think everyone did, but no one had the balls to short it heavy.
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Oct 26, 2008
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UWTI down 4% in premarket. Could see a new 52 week low anytime. Dead cat bounce inevitable but have to wait and see.
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Jul 19, 2003
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Si98 wrote: UWTI down 4% in premarket. Could see a new 52 week low anytime. Dead cat bounce inevitable but have to wait and see.
DWTI down to $25! lol
Deal Addict
Feb 7, 2008
1527 posts
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Toronto
good, $46 now.

targeting XEG @ 12.5, SU @ 31, HSE $21

8:30, U.S. will announce PPI data and it's going to move the direction to either way depends on the result.
However, I feel no matter what its result is, it's going to make a downward trend...
Deal Addict
Feb 7, 2008
1527 posts
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Toronto
masterhapposai wrote: If I leverage short it down to $25, I'd have made more than anyone investing into it. So it can still be a good idea to trade oil.

I've been pretty sure it would go down a ton for a while, I think everyone did, but no one had the balls to short it heavy.
It's hard to do short when it breaks pattern and support line like this week unless you are day trader.
I did buy HOD last week but I sold when it went down to $48.
A lot of ppl are doing long position since $49.5...and very few expect it to break $48 support line...
The market sentiment for non corporation and individual traders are leaning to bull, so I think some people are hit hard this time if oil price continue to fall.
Penalty Box
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Jul 11, 2008
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Away from RFD idiots
Jon Lai wrote: As long as I'm net positive you're still wrong.
lol

with long enough time horizon, you'll be net negative.

I'll see you in 10 years.
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Jul 19, 2003
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oajlu wrote: good, $46 now.

targeting XEG @ 12.5, SU @ 31, HSE $21

8:30, U.S. will announce PPI data and it's going to move the direction to either way depends on the result.
However, I feel no matter what its result is, it's going to make a downward trend...
-A gauge of U.S. business prices continued to fall in February, the latest sign of weak inflationary pressures across the U.S. economy.
US Producer Price Index down 0.5% in Feb vs. up 0.3% expected
hmm
Deal Addict
Jan 16, 2015
2423 posts
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Cochrane, AB
Jon Lai wrote: As long as I'm net positive you're still wrong.
That sounds like what a gambler at the casino would say.

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