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is now the time to invest in oil stocks?

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  • Oct 30th, 2020 12:05 pm
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Deal Addict
Jul 23, 2007
4156 posts
2256 upvotes
I own a couple of companies that are partly into renewable ENB, CPX and one that is full blown renewable energy AQN. Even so, I can't see the pipelines disappearing anytime soon. I'm still pumping my car with gas (albeit once every six weeks) and the natural gas for our furnace is still supplied by Enbridge. Reading a report from a few months ago that national sales of electric vehicles in Canada are only 3.5%. Sorry if I'm far from impressed. Perhaps fusion power, although I won't hold my breath waiting.
Sr. Member
User avatar
May 31, 2018
523 posts
1043 upvotes
Saskatchewan
Yeah, it’s so easy to say the oil/gas days are over but nobody (and I mean nobody) has found a way to realistically replace it with “renewable” energy in the near term.

Solar, wind, tidal, geothermal etc. all seem great on paper but really only if capital expenditures and future maintenance costs are suppressed. Nuclear is probably a better answer, but it has the whole radioactivity stigma attached to it.

And the real elephant in the room is the simple fact that our power grid is in no way capable of handling the charging requirements of 2.7 electric vehicles per household plus heating/cooling every building.

As much as some people would simply wish it otherwise, without some technological breakthrough we’ll be using oil and gas at a steady rate for the foreseeable future.
Member
Jul 30, 2012
449 posts
445 upvotes
Stryker wrote: I own a couple of companies that are partly into renewable ENB, CPX and one that is full blown renewable energy AQN. Even so, I can't see the pipelines disappearing anytime soon. I'm still pumping my car with gas (albeit once every six weeks) and the natural gas for our furnace is still supplied by Enbridge. Reading a report from a few months ago that national sales of electric vehicles in Canada are only 3.5%. Sorry if I'm far from impressed. Perhaps fusion power, although I won't hold my breath waiting.
"one that is full blown renewable energy AQN". 1/3 of AQN's revenue comes from Natural Gas Winking Face. Profile is more similar to EMA / FTS. The common thread among "renewable" utilities is that they rely on NG for power generation & significant revenue. Institutional money has basically anointed these type of companies as having much better ESG than Enbridge even though 1/2 of ENB ebidta Cashflows comes from Natural Gas distribution, transmission, & Power lol (post-Spectra acquisition). Pundits consistently focus on the liquids side to chastise the company.

Retail investors have generally been misled by "Green" investment funds on what constitutes a true ESG/renewable investment.

All that to say, I agree, the planet is a long ways off of exclusive non-hydrocarbon energy but should definitely work towards that balance.
Deal Addict
Aug 17, 2008
4323 posts
3466 upvotes
TY @FarmerHarv and others. A reliable renewable energy storage system is required. All you needed to see was that the fires and smoke on the US west coast blocking out the sun.

Solar power plunges as smoke shrouds Calif. - https://www.eenews.net/stories/1063713459,
California’s Wildfire Power Eclipse - https://www.wsj.com/articles/california ... 1599864717
Vancouver has second-worst air quality in the world as smoke shrouds B.C. - https://www.nsnews.com/news/vancouver-h ... 1.24202432


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Sr. Member
User avatar
May 31, 2018
523 posts
1043 upvotes
Saskatchewan
MrMom wrote: TY @FarmerHarv and others. A reliable renewable energy storage system is required. All you needed to see was that the fires and smoke on the US west coast blocking out the sun.

Solar power plunges as smoke shrouds Calif. - https://www.eenews.net/stories/1063713459,
California’s Wildfire Power Eclipse - https://www.wsj.com/articles/california ... 1599864717
Vancouver has second-worst air quality in the world as smoke shrouds B.C. - https://www.nsnews.com/news/vancouver-h ... 1.24202432
Wow, I've never thought much about weather and other environmental effects on solar power generation, that's scary how much output has dropped from the fires. Storage facilities would be the answer, but the current (no pun intended) energy costs to build and maintain battery banks (much the same as electric vehicles) are high enough that the actual green payback is almost too far in the future to see.

Similarly I have watched the wind turbine farm between Palm Springs and San Bernardino along I-10 grow steadily over the last 15 years, and that's when I realized that wind power just wasn't gonna work. On any given day it seems over half of the propellors in the field are feathered or simply not turning, either from low wind speed or mechanical issues, and given how much energy is required to build, ship, install and maintain a huge turbine unit I don't see them coming out on the positive side of that equation for a long long time either (if ever).

Lots of good ideas out there, but we're just not far enough along with the tech to make any of this work reliably on a massive scale without expending as much or more overall energy than is actually produced renewably.
Member
Jul 30, 2012
449 posts
445 upvotes
FarmerHarv wrote: Wow, I've never thought much about weather and other environmental effects on solar power generation, that's scary how much output has dropped from the fires. Storage facilities would be the answer, but the current (no pun intended) energy costs to build and maintain battery banks (much the same as electric vehicles) are high enough that the actual green payback is almost too far in the future to see.

Similarly I have watched the wind turbine farm between Palm Springs and San Bernardino along I-10 grow steadily over the last 15 years, and that's when I realized that wind power just wasn't gonna work. On any given day it seems over half of the propellors in the field are feathered or simply not turning, either from low wind speed or mechanical issues, and given how much energy is required to build, ship, install and maintain a huge turbine unit I don't see them coming out on the positive side of that equation for a long long time either (if ever).

Lots of good ideas out there, but we're just not far enough along with the tech to make any of this work reliably on a massive scale without expending as much or more overall energy than is actually produced renewably.
The main issue with true renewable source is energy "storage" (that can be accessed during "offline" hours - lack of daylight for solar, lack of wind for turbines). Storage technology needs to advance well beyond current lithium, cobalt, based battery technologies that can 1) dramatically increase energy storage capacity and 2) Not create another negative environmental impact that current battery technology produces.
Sr. Member
Jun 13, 2009
682 posts
372 upvotes
Toronto
IrwinW wrote: 5 words mean there is still plenty of time: demand - broadly - flat - two - decades
If Canada didn't have a problem with executing large projects, I would agree with you.
Deal Guru
Jan 27, 2006
14585 posts
7489 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
DealRNothing wrote: The main issue with true renewable source is energy "storage" (that can be accessed during "offline" hours - lack of daylight for solar, lack of wind for turbines). Storage technology needs to advance well beyond current lithium, cobalt, based battery technologies that can 1) dramatically increase energy storage capacity and 2) Not create another negative environmental impact that current battery technology produces.
I would add a third thing -> the energy can be stored for long periods of time without little or no loss in power. Currently, any battery will self-discharge and the act of charging a battery will create some level of loss as well. Otherwise, energy storage would only be good for short periods of time (ie time-shifting for load demands) and not for when a large weather event happens.
Jr. Member
Sep 23, 2016
117 posts
28 upvotes
WTI +5%
SU +1.9%
HSE +0.8%

Only notable one was VET+11% (but it got beat up so much more in the past 3 weeks than the others...)

Should buy SNOW instead, +113% lol.
Deal Addict
Aug 17, 2008
4323 posts
3466 upvotes
On a rare day when O & G aka Energy outperformed, BTE closed unch. 2 big block trades at 60 cents. Someone making for the exit?

Unrelated;

Calgary oil patch waits for confirmation of its first significant IPO in years
September 16 at 6:45 PM ET

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busines ... icant-ipo/
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Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Sep 21, 2007
5135 posts
509 upvotes
Winnipeg
MrMom wrote: On a rare day when O & G aka Energy outperformed, BTE closed unch. 2 big block trades at 60 cents. Someone making for the exit?

Unrelated;

Calgary oil patch waits for confirmation of its first significant IPO in years
September 16 at 6:45 PM ET

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busines ... icant-ipo/
Mind posting that article?
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
Newbie
Apr 13, 2019
31 posts
31 upvotes
Posting the entirety of the article breaks copyright rules.

It is by Jeffrey Jones and it talks about how the patch is speculating that a Tourmaline spinoff called Topaz may go to an IPO.
Here's a snippet:
On Monday, a private outfit called Topaz Energy Corp. had been scheduled to give a presentation to a virtual edition of the annual Peters & Co. conference. The Street had been waiting with interest, given that an initial public offering for the hybrid energy royalty and midstream company has been under consideration.

But Topaz, majority owned by Calgary-based Tourmaline Oil Corp., cancelled its spiel, leading analysts and investors to wager it had entered the required quiet period before filing a prospectus for an offering that could raise hundreds of millions of dollars.

If Tourmaline parts with some of its interest alongside an IPO, or sells down its stake later, the proceeds could help chief executive officer Mike Rose build up his own war chest for natural gas acquisitions in Alberta and British Columbia, reducing the need to take on debt for what he’s described as “a generational opportunity.”
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Sep 21, 2007
5135 posts
509 upvotes
Winnipeg
sunnysidesolutions wrote: Save it to Pocket and you can read most articles even if they are behind paywalls. Super useful. getpocket.com
wow thanks!
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
Deal Addict
Aug 17, 2008
4323 posts
3466 upvotes
florenntina wrote: 2000@4.29 🥴
I have made a very nice profit on XEG before. I have no idea what was I thinking when I switched to HSE
The upside is that HSE hasn't been this cheap for close to 40 years. Thinking Face
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