Investing

is now the time to invest in oil stocks?

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  • Nov 23rd, 2020 12:45 pm
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Deal Addict
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Oct 14, 2015
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love2save wrote: Is there life?
I am not a fan of the financial sector, but I’m interested in the energy sector because it has been so eviscerated. Although, it’s a very speculative play. Also, I do like consumer staples and healthcare. Count me as one of those thinking that we’ve completely played the tech sector out. Sure, we’re talking on Zoom for this interview. But the fact that the entire US airline sector has an $80 billion market cap, and Zoom has a $140 billion market cap tells me that Zoom has likely done its thing. At this stage, everybody knows what WFH means. I’m not extraordinarily bearish on technology stocks, and I don’t think they are a short. But they have kind of run their course at this level. ~Jim Bianco
Interview: Jim Bianco, founder and chief strategist of Bianco Research
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Scott did a stock valuation of Phillips 66 (PSX)

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Jul 30, 2012
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IrwinW wrote:

Scott did a stock valuation of Phillips 66 (PSX)

Perhaps there is hope for Canadian refiners in the renewable world (i.e. Suncor, etc), lol...
As for P66 specifically, I will only make a comment on "Goodwill" specifically as part of a Balance Sheet. I generally avoid companies that have booked the non-tangible "asset" as it is usually not recoverable unless it is a "moat-type" business. Goodwill typically arises from over-paying for an asset(s). It does (like this example) end up being expensed to the Income Statement. I did eventually take position(s)/exception with ENB when I believed the Share price(s) / Tangible Assets / Cashflow(s) could compensate/justify for the "Goodwill" impairment (of Spectra, etc). I believe ENB to be more of a "Moat-type" of business than general O&G producers / refiners (but eventually I'll be proven wrong by the market, lol).

Nevertheless, I would encourage any investor to look at "Goodwill" / Intangible Assets of any company they are considering to come up with an entry / add valuation. As I say, I take a pass on most unless the "Goodwill" is significantly reasonable (lower) than tangible assets and/or the company is in a "moat-type" space. My first investment/accounting exercise is to remove it completely and come up with a Tangible Book Value of a company of interest.
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Sep 21, 2007
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I'm curious on what some of your strategies are on the stocks that you are holding.. Are most of you holding until recovery or trying to get out as soon as possible..
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
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May 31, 2018
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@faken I waffle every week between sell & hold. My IPL and SU would give me a $12k haircut if I sold today, and if I throw ENB to the wolves also it would be another -$18k. I guess if I could allocate the funds somewhere "better" while justifying the capital loss for tax purposes it would make sense to sell, otherwise might as well hold and keep my dividend income up.
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Jul 23, 2007
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I have the option to sell IPL in the taxable portfolio next month or in early December. Then again, I may not. I'm in no rush. No cash additions to this equity since the dividend cut.

KEY and PPL I've been adding to every so often right through the pandemic. If others want to pass up on an 8%+ dividend yield, then thanks but I'll gladly take it.

Both ENB and TRP I have enough percentage wise for now in the portfolio but that won't preclude me from possibly adding to them in future under the right conditions.
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FarmerHarv wrote: @faken I waffle every week between sell & hold. My IPL and SU would give me a $12k haircut if I sold today, and if I throw ENB to the wolves also it would be another -$18k. I guess if I could allocate the funds somewhere "better" while justifying the capital loss for tax purposes it would make sense to sell, otherwise might as well hold and keep my dividend income up.
No surprise O&G investments have been chronic under performers. Individual tax situations will dictate buy, holds, or sells but Seasonality, US Election & Tax Loss season are all contributing to the sector downdraft. I actually prefer to sell (in this sector) in late spring as sector sentiment / prices are typically better. I'm actually considering sector "additions" (up to Dec) for swing trade opportunities in 2021.

I have a feeling there may be a modest bump in the sector once US election is over (even with a Biden win). I think the current situation is one of "buy on rumor, sell on news" with respect to renewables and the opposite for O&G. Time will tell but would not surprise me to see a "relief sell-off / rally" reversal in performance trend(s) between the 2 sectors post-election.

Renewables valuations are looking toppy here and have been driven (in part) by an expected Biden win.
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Jul 10, 2008
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1xTiMeR wrote: lol a cesspool for gamblers, who flinches first on WTI Sentiment tickers.

HOU / HOD is dead. No real strategy behind trading these anymore.
bump, I noticed they changed the leverage to 1x only in April.... due to volatility.
My math is bad, but in August they had a meeting, and finally September, they renamed the etf,
and stated it trades UP TO 200times of the underlying price(contract) of oil...
I see no difference in daily percentages.
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xcentric wrote: bump, I noticed they changed the leverage to 1x only in April.... due to volatility.
My math is bad, but in August they had a meeting, and finally September, they renamed the etf,
and stated it trades UP TO 200times of the underlying price(contract) of oil...
I see no difference in daily percentages.
If you have american funds, just trade UCO ;).
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
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Aug 17, 2008
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Would have posted earlier, but I couldn't login. Initiated a starter position on ALA at $17.42 on the morning dip. Was targeting a 5.5% yield.

NG contracts rolling, but Dec is getting hit harder than Nov today. https://www.tradingview.com/x/xq2wApLv/
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MrMom wrote: Would have posted earlier, but I couldn't login. Initiated a starter position on ALA at $17.42 on the morning dip. Was targeting a 5.5% yield.

NG contracts rolling, but Dec is getting hit harder than Nov today. https://www.tradingview.com/x/xq2wApLv/
Seasonality on NG price strength (Spot) is typically Oct/Nov... Wildcard is production cut effects / weather patterns (which are currently reporting/forecasting Colder than normal). While predicting the weather is a mugs game, production cuts have been real.
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Aug 17, 2008
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DealRNothing wrote: Seasonality on NG price strength (Spot) is typically Oct/Nov... Wildcard is production cut effects / weather patterns (which are currently reporting Colder than normal). While predicting the weather is a mugs game, production cuts have been real.
Oh I know that. From "waste product" to "clean energy" in about a year >>> AAV, BIR ... even the wealth destroyer "Encana." OK, Maybe not OVV yet.
@spotmonthenergy or @brynnekkelly on twitter, but not that Cdn Nut...
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Oct 14, 2015
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love2save wrote: BUY.
Trader Jack Chan hasn't been in energy for several years, but reentered this month - October.
The first page of his public charts shows all his energy ETFs. The only change I would make is to use ZEO instead of XEG.

https://stockcharts.com/public/1094070

Short-term trend lines are firmly in place on all charts.

The two most important acronyms Jack uses on his charts:
TLBBS : trendline break buy signal
TLBSS : trendline break sell signal

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