For now, it has "everything to do with" and "nothing to do with" N. American conditions/outcomes simultaneously. Large operators will always use necessary inputs (necessity for continuous cropping cycles). "Inputs In" and hope for the best is usually the method. Geo-political and world-wide crop conditions/grain prices have set the stage for N. American producers to "hold the balance of power" for global food supply this year.FarmerHarv wrote: ↑ The upcoming drought this year is potentially going to make last year look like an agricultural utopian oasis in comparison. Being that there was no crop to speak of last year, and no rain to leach anything away, a significant percentage of the fertilizer put down a year ago is still waiting patiently in the soil for a crop to take it up.
Farmers, ever optimistic, are starting seeding into some of the driest conditions since the prairies were first broke, and they are dutifully putting down roughly the same amount of fertilizer because nobody can remember 2 drought years in a row.
They're just not old enough is all.
So when next year rolls around with 2 years worth of applied product sitting in the soil, I wonder if fertilizer prices and sales projections will continue to increase at these rates?
If one's crystal ball can predict Russia will no longer destroy & plunder one of the richest agricultural regions in the World, if Sanctions will be lifted off Belarus & Russia, and if crop growing conditions globally will be superb for Spring/Fall '22/Spring '23, then I think we can "predict" NTR pricing trajectory.
Unlike some others, I didn't see the Russian war on Ukraine as short-term or easily resolved (or the de-globalization results) which simply overlaid the inflation backdrop. Being in that camp, my Macro on NTR has/still remains unchanged.
Global food constraints/control (IMO) remains one of the most underestimated crisis(es) this year (perhaps going forward as well). Affordable food may become the most precious item, not the new smartphone or EV on order.