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Official Weather Thread: Historical warming and melting taking place in the Arctic

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Aug 17, 2008
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Sask.
We have been having weather in the 20s, this week will be hitting 30+ some days and sunny.
[OP]
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Nov 7, 2012
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abercombie and finch
natalka wrote: We have been having weather in the 20s, this week will be hitting 30+ some days and sunny.
I was just looking at your forecast and realized that it is still all hot up there. How could things be so cold in Toronto if you have been hot all summer and will continue that way!
blahhh
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May 31, 2006
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Burlington
Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: My model analysis for Sept as for now projects quite the cold picture for that month.
Starting exactly a week from now, right on the long weekend and before school even starts, the cold will just come raging in!
If things stay mostly the same as I see now in my models, we are looking at a steady stream of highs just in the mid to upper teens, effectively cutting off summer for all of next week!
Cold? Next week? Highs in the upper teens to mid-20s?

Image

Temps in the teens aren't cold... middle-of-the-night lows in the high single digits a month from now, where they're appropriate, aren't cold.

Now... if you tell me your models show a prolonged period of sustained sub-freezing temps sometime in September, I'll defer and allow the use of the word "cold"... until then, we'll still have to wait 'til December for some cold... and even then it still won't be enough cold!

I'm pretty sure this autumn will be like the last three or four, where I've still had to cut the grass in late November and probably shoulda done it again in December!!! Grinning Face With Smiling Eyes
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Nov 7, 2012
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abercombie and finch
CenturyBreak wrote: Cold? Next week? Highs in the upper teens to mid-20s?

Image

Temps in the teens aren't cold... middle-of-the-night lows in the high single digits a month from now, where they're appropriate, aren't cold.

Now... if you tell me your models show a prolonged period of sustained sub-freezing temps sometime in September, I'll defer and allow the use of the word "cold"... until then, we'll still have to wait 'til December for some cold... and even then it still won't be enough cold!

I'm pretty sure this autumn will be like the last three or four, where I've still had to cut the grass in late November and probably shoulda done it again in December!!! Grinning Face With Smiling Eyes
"cold" is relative. It won't feel good after being used to the heat.
The right word is already in the title anyways. "chilly"

EDIT:
Before dictionary searching the word, I had a feeling that I was not misusing the word:
"cold"
"of or at a low or relatively low temperature, especially when compared with the human body."
Relative. Exactly what I said above.

Notice how people in this country have the habit of saying things like "eat your soup before it gets cold" when we are not sitting on an iceberg, but in a room temperature house! Now even I like to dispute that kind of phrase lol. But that is how the word is used.
blahhh
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May 31, 2006
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Burlington
Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: "cold" is relative. It won't feel good after being used to the heat.
The right word is already in the title anyways. "chilly"

EDIT:
Before dictionary searching the word, I had a feeling that I was not misusing the word:
"cold"
"of or at a low or relatively low temperature, especially when compared with the human body."
Relative. Exactly what I said above.

Notice how people in this country have the habit of saying things like "eat your soup before it gets cold" when we are not sitting on an iceberg, but in a room temperature house! Now even I like to dispute that kind of phrase lol. But that is how the word is used.
Actually, it'll feel great after being used to the heat! :D There's rarely anything enjoyable about summer in southern Ontario, so this is a return to pleasant weather after the unpleasantness of summer. :)

I'll admit that this summer hasn't been as miserable as the past few, which were torture, but we still had a sh!t-tonne of hot weather (in the 30s, humid, etc.) especially since the end of June.

As for definitions, I'll defer to Merriam-Webster for the moment:
Definition of cold
1 a : having or being a temperature that is uncomfortably low for humans
In no version of reality could upper teens to low 20s be considered "uncomfortably low", so again, "cold" doesn't apply to next week! Comfortable, pleasant, welcome... these would be words associated with the weather... not "cold"! Smiling Face With Sunglasses
Deal Addict
Aug 17, 2008
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Sask.
Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: I was just looking at your forecast and realized that it is still all hot up there. How could things be so cold in Toronto if you have been hot all summer and will continue that way!
It is bizarre, an unusual year, that's for sure - the hot started in May.
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Deal Guru
Nov 7, 2012
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abercombie and finch
CenturyBreak wrote: In no version of reality could upper teens to low 20s be considered "uncomfortably low", so again, "cold" doesn't apply to next week! Comfortable, pleasant, welcome... these would be words associated with the weather... not "cold"! Smiling Face With Sunglasses
Great because I wasnt refering to 20's anyways.
Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: If things stay mostly the same as I see now in my models, we are looking at a steady stream of highs just in the mid to upper teens, effectively cutting off summer for all of next week!
And that is an if.
Now let's wait and see how cold it gets behind that cold front. Ahem "cold front" Not "cool front" or "mild front" or "chilly front" lol

Arctic ice is not breaking records as of late and I was looking at this thing about a potential long term cooling trend caused by solar cycles so watch out. Sandikosh may love what's coming.
natalka wrote: It is bizarre, an unusual year, that's for sure - the hot started in May.

You are actually much farther north than Toronto and the SK to TO weather difference was more like an SK to Yukon difference!
blahhh
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May 31, 2006
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Burlington
Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: Great because I wasnt refering to 20's anyways.
20's what? Oh... 20s! ;)

Seriously, tho'... you were writing about next week's forecast: 25, 22, 18, 17, 18, 19, 21.

So... upper teens and 20s. :)

Ilovejaneandfinch wrote:
Now let's wait and see how cold it gets behind that cold front. Ahem "cold front" Not "cool front" or "mild front" or "chilly front" lol
I agree: "cold front" is the correct meteorological term, even if it's one the only drops temps from the high 30s to the low 30s! :twisted:
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Nov 7, 2012
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abercombie and finch
CenturyBreak wrote: 20's what? Oh... 20s! ;)

Seriously, tho'... you were writing about next week's forecast: 25, 22, 18, 17, 18, 19, 21.

So... upper teens and 20s. :)




I agree: "cold front" is the correct meteorological term, even if it's one the only drops temps from the high 30s to the low 30s! :twisted:
I was actually talking speculatively about the GFS hence the word "if"
Whether this cold spell comes fully to fruition or not has yet to be seen.

If the current trend holds(chronic below normal temps in the east), expect lake effect snow to start in October.

EDIT: The cold spell will still come, but only god knows how strong it will be. GFS has an even stronger cold snap later in the month.

EDIT: New GFS just out. Really looks just as cold as before.
blahhh
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May 31, 2006
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Burlington
Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: I was actually talking speculatively about the GFS hence the word "if"
Whether this cold spell comes fully to fruition or not has yet to be seen.

If the current trend holds(chronic below normal temps in the east), expect lake effect snow to start in October.

EDIT: The cold spell will still come, but only god knows how strong it will be. GFS has an even stronger cold snap later in the month.

EDIT: New GFS just out. Really looks just as cold as before.
GFS? Which long-range model? I'd like to see it... not questioning your interpretation: I'm genuinely interested! :D

To get lake effect snow (well north of here) we'd still need steady sub-zero temp winds across Lake Huron and/or Georgian Bay, and sub-zero ground temps for accumulation... in October? I admit it'd be damned cool to experience... but I'm not holding my breath... ;)
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Nov 7, 2012
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abercombie and finch
CenturyBreak wrote: GFS? Which long-range model? I'd like to see it... not questioning your interpretation: I'm genuinely interested! :D

To get lake effect snow (well north of here) we'd still need steady sub-zero temp winds across Lake Huron and/or Georgian Bay, and sub-zero ground temps for accumulation... in October? I admit it'd be damned cool to experience... but I'm not holding my breath... ;)
I am hesitant to give away my weather stuff. But here we go lol
http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/model_loops/1 ... er_pcp.php

When you become a famous weatherman, don't forget me.
Enjoy your GFS!
blahhh
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Deal Guru
Nov 7, 2012
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abercombie and finch
btw, this thing about lake effect snow in October, like the rest of winter, not necessarily here, but where lake effect normal goes like Buffalo, Fort Erie and other areas, that is where you will find it. Just google and you will see just how heavy this can get in October!

These October events were exactly a decade apart:
http://www.newyorkupstate.com/weather/2 ... sible.html
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... BOmOSDwzGg

If it happens again this year, we will buck the trend with it 2 years in a row!
blahhh
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May 31, 2006
1097 posts
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Burlington
Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: I am hesitant to give away my weather stuff. But here we go lol
http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/model_loops/1 ... er_pcp.php

When you become a famous weatherman, don't forget me.
Enjoy your GFS!
Cool! Well, maybe... ;)

16 days out is a good timeframe... but how are you translating the precip forecast to temperature?

Famous weatherman? Nah... I'll stick with being an infamous accountant! Winking Face Smiling Face With Sunglasses
[OP]
Deal Guru
Nov 7, 2012
11562 posts
146 upvotes
abercombie and finch
CenturyBreak wrote: Cool! Well, maybe... ;)

16 days out is a good timeframe... but how are you translating the precip forecast to temperature?

Famous weatherman? Nah... I'll stick with being an infamous accountant! Winking Face Smiling Face With Sunglasses
Determining general hot or cold trends is very easy once you get used to weather data. I know what a cold front looks like on this more 'raw' info. And high pressure systems and low pressure systems appear at certain strengths, located in certain locations and moving in certain directions, I can observe if it is cold. When the lines are tight around the low pressure system located east of you and a high pressure system is moving toward you from the arctic, I know it is a cold pattern.
Stuff like that.

For temperature I don't look at precip much. Those lines and high/low pressure indicate most of it.
blahhh
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May 31, 2006
1097 posts
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Burlington
Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: Determining general hot or cold trends is very easy once you get used to weather data. I know what a cold front looks like on this more 'raw' info. And high pressure systems and low pressure systems appear at certain strengths, located in certain locations and moving in certain directions, I can observe if it is cold. When the lines are tight around the low pressure system located east of you and a high pressure system is moving toward you from the arctic, I know it is a cold pattern.
Stuff like that.

For temperature I don't look at precip much. Those lines and high/low pressure indicate most of it.
Thanks.

I can see approaching cold/warm fronts, both from the precip colours and the density of isobars on the map, but I don't get the connection between that and prolonged cooler or warmer trends... as opposed to temporary (hours/days) cooling or warming.

I guess that's the art portion of the process, as opposed to my very basic understanding of the science... ;)

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