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Official Weather Thread: Historical warming and melting taking place in the Arctic

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Image

Hurricane Irma: GFS Simulation shows a Force 9 extra-tropical storm heading over the Great Lakes.
Although it is worth noting the GFS is usually inaccurate this far out.


OP, any input?
[OP]
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therollin wrote: Image

Hurricane Irma: GFS Simulation shows a Force 9 extra-tropical storm heading over the Great Lakes.
Although it is worth noting the GFS is usually inaccurate this far out.

OP, any input?

GFS is not exactly inaccurate. It has been predicting stuff quite well. ECMWF model only beats it by a hair. Keep in mind that the 12z (mid day) and 00z (mid night) runs are the most accurate. Remember that. The other 2 GFS runs for the day are CRAP.
That's why the other model does not even release those times.

12 and 00 z GFS are accurate enough when compared to what other models we have.

What I see is a very 'watered down' version of the storm by the time it reaches us. Nothing impressive at all.

To get an idea of how much weaker just look at it.
This is how tight and strong it is when still down there:
Image
And this is how it looks when it is enters Ontario:
Image

A lot weaker for us.
blahhh
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I have a week of vacation I have to use up in the next few months, Any predictions on which week will have the least amount of rain?
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Evil Baby wrote: I have a week of vacation I have to use up in the next few months, Any predictions on which week will have the least amount of rain?
December 24 - 30. If the past is any indication, there may not be a white Christmas.
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How about asking about snow. This is Canada lol
Precip is hard to predict.
I can only say that September is now looking average with an overall lack of significant cold and not on the cold side as it was looking before.
blahhh
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29 today and tomorrow, then 31 and 30 degree days into the weekend
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Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: How about asking about snow. This is Canada lol
Precip is hard to predict.
I can only say that September is now looking average with an overall lack of significant cold and not on the cold side as it was looking before.
Then ya gotta change that thread title again, son! :D

After tomorrow, it's back to warm - 20s every day; normal to above normal temps - for the next two weeks! So: warm, not "quite chilly"! Smiling Face With Open Mouth
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CenturyBreak wrote: Then ya gotta change that thread title again, son! :D

After tomorrow, it's back to warm - 20s every day; normal to above normal temps - for the next two weeks! So: warm, not "quite chilly"! Smiling Face With Open Mouth
There done.
Lol
Nice to see we are now done with that cold regime.
blahhh
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So, so very glad the heat wave is over - just in the 20s now. Yay!
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sandikosh wrote: December 24 - 30. If the past is any indication, there may not be a white Christmas.
Already have that off. However, I've decided to redo the bathroom at my mom's house now so I guess it doesn't matter if reins or not so I can take my week vacation whenever.
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Wonderful! The month is now looking warm! We get warmth through most of the remainder of the month it seems. September will be really comfortable. We lost out on the warmth in May and even June, now it is here with us! It seems to be making up for losses earlier in the summer by making it warm now. Even better!
blahhh
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What's with all these nasty fruit flies in the Eaton Centre, library, everywhere in Toronto this year. They are all over.
Yuck!

Anyone else notice this?
blahhh
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Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: What's with all these nasty fruit flies in the Eaton Centre, library, everywhere in Toronto this year. They are all over.
Yuck!

Anyone else notice this?
Yes. They do seem really bad this time. Also, the yellow jackets are REALLY REALLY aggressive this time of year. Just means cold weather is on the way. Already seeing geese flying around in formation.
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[OP]
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willdacanucker wrote: Yes. They do seem really bad this time. Also, the yellow jackets are REALLY REALLY aggressive this time of year. Just means cold weather is on the way. Already seeing geese flying around in formation.
September looks warm so I don't think cold temperatures are a factor. I don;t know if weather is a factor at all for this.
Can't wait til they are gone.

In Scarborough, I noticed the bees are bad too. The field I walked across was just loaded with bees all the time. You can't walk there without looking at the ground to see how many bees are by your feet.
blahhh

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