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Official Weather Thread: Historical warming and melting taking place in the Arctic

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A glorious minus 15!
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Rain thursday and friday. It's going to be disgusting.
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sandikosh wrote: A glorious minus 15!

Yawn. Plus 6 on friday lol. Enjoy it while you can. This is the most snow we are getting this hole winter at one time. :D
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abercombie and finch
Water main break at Lawrence station may have been provoked by the super cold temperatures. I am not sure if it was for sure, but what I do know is that it would have been turned into a skating rink all over because it was cooooold!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/l ... -1.2465540

Also, someone totaled the bus stop pole for the stop near my house when they were trying to escape the deep snow. If you can't handle winter weather before you even leave your parking spot, then please! just don't drive!
[IMG]http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-l-EPotSYNTM/U ... G_1879.jpg[/IMG]

Funny thing is, you can see the winter scene these people were trying to escape and where the bus stop pole was in the distance in the other photo I posted BEFORE they totaled the bus stop!
[IMG]http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ChNB5gS6CWA/U ... street.jpg[/IMG]

Lol. Take out the snowdrift AND the bus pole!

OR maybe it was a drunkened snow plow operator.

And now for a bit of an update from the GFS. I checked the latest run of the GFS model and it is showing 2 borderline storms. A little movement of this storm to the south, then on top of what's already here, we get tons more snow between these 2 low pressure systems. A bit more north this storm moves and all the snow we got now melts and we get rain.
Storm one is mostly a light, cold rain shower.
[IMG]http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gf ... precip.gif[/IMG]
Storm 2. Is appearing right now in the GFS as freezing rain, ice pellets and ending in a quick burst of wet snow in the afternoon or evening.
[IMG]http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gf ... precip.gif[/IMG]
These are sure to change, no doubt, but the question remains, what will become of these 2 storms?
caRpetbomBer wrote: Yawn. Plus 6 on friday lol. Enjoy it while you can. This is the most snow we are getting this hole winter at one time. :D
I see hints of a patter shift to more mild conditions due to a more positive shift in the one indice that is responsible for this cold and snow, so you may be right for a while, but we will have wait and see because we are in winter early this year and have a long one ahead of us :)
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caRpetbomBer wrote: Yawn. Plus 6 on friday lol. Enjoy it while you can. This is the most snow we are getting this hole winter at one time. :D
Why must you rain on people's parade?
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sandikosh wrote: Why must you rain on people's parade?
Don't worry because I am snowing and sleeting on the parade lol This is one of Accuweather's most recent updates and it looks like we won't even make it to 6 degrees and rain if it holds true becasue it will be too cold and rain won't be able to fall in this scenario. Here is the story:
Looks like Accuweather wants to keep any rain far enough away from us:
[IMG]http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... 6_hd24.jpg[/IMG]
Accuweather wrote:"Farther north, from that same Friday storm, some snow and a wintry mix will reach eastward across from parts of Michigan to upstate New York and northern New England. While snowfall with this system will be considered to be minor, enough can fall to cause slippery roads."
That translates to the same as those areas for here in southern Ontario.
Accuweather wrote:Yet another storm is forecast to become the major weather maker prior to Christmas over the eastern half of the nation spanning Saturday to Monday.
[IMG]http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... 6_hd24.jpg[/IMG]
A zone of ice and snow is likely to develop on the northwestern fringe of the rain area. How close this gets to major airport hubs, such as Oklahoma City, Chicago, Detroit and St. Louis is uncertain at this time. .....
In the wake of the second storm with its rain, fog, ice and snow will follow a push of chilly air. While this is not likely to be as cold as some prior Arctic outbreaks thus far, it may get cold enough to cause wet areas to freeze.
This storm being discussed could change in many ways before actually arrives. It could become a bust, like many do, or it could end up developing into something much better, even last minute, like what happened with the last snowstorm. Keeping my eye on this one.
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Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: This storm being discussed could change in many ways before actually arrives. It could become a bust, like many do, or it could end up developing into something much better, even last minute, like what happened with the last snowstorm. Keeping my eye on this one.
I hope not...Need to make up for the snow we lose after the rain! I just saw the forecast on TWN and got excited seeing 10-15cm for sat and sun. It would be great to have, just before Christmas!
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Zephyr22b wrote: I hope not...Need to make up for the snow we lose after the rain! I just saw the forecast on TWN and got excited seeing 10-15cm for sat and sun. It would be great to have, just before Christmas!
Nice. Well I think you are going to like this what I read on Accuweather about who is in the path for snow and whose white Christmas is a bust: "The warmth will mean no snow or ice problems for millions of people in the South, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England." , which leaves us outside of that rainy Christmas area and far from the limits of where they said this warm will be. You can see just how far we are from the crappy warm weather zone mentioned by Accuweather by seeing the illustration below.

This is perfect for us. When you have a warm wet weather zone immediately to your south, plus cold where you are, plus storms sprouting up from that warm zone, it can make for some pretty decent snows where you are because of the temperature contrast. Warm weather meeting cold weather makes the best storms so I think we are on the right track to get plenty of snow. Now I am just waiting to see when our next big one sprouts up ;)

I made a map illustrating why we are in a good position for storms and snow:
[IMG]http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-n93I5UshrlI/U ... /storm.jpg[/IMG]
Storms tend to travel along that line you see there where the warm brown zone meets the cold blue zone which you can see Toronto is right in the middle of, so this is a perfect setup for another snowstorm to develop.
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Ventured outside this morning (haven't been out since the storm) to find my car buried in snow (the snow was up to my windows). Took a while to dig it out in the -18 weather :( .
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Typhoonz wrote: Ventured outside this morning (haven't been out since the storm) to find my car buried in snow (the snow was up to my windows). Took a while to dig it out in the -18 weather :( .
Wow this is some winter moment!

The ingredients could come together to make this happen all over again on the next sunday and the right combination of factors may come together to make it even much worse. If the above low develops strong and moves more toward central Ohio, not windsor, it could evolve into something much worse than what you just dug yourself out of! I just saw HPC NOAA updated their data showing we should be on the cold side of the low pressure system and we will be subject to heavy precipitation, which either means major ice storm or major snow storm for Ontario, Quebec, and Eastern Canada including New Brunswick so it looks like we got ourselves another major storm on the radar!

I will be monitoring it daily and will provide updates as they come in.
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Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: Wow this is some winter moment!

The ingredients could come together to make this happen all over again on the next sunday and the right combination of factors may come together to make it even much worse. If the above low develops strong and moves more toward central Ohio, not windsor, it could evolve into something much worse than what you just dug yourself out of! I just saw HPC NOAA updated their data showing we should be on the cold side of the low pressure system and we will be subject to heavy precipitation, which either means major ice storm or major snow storm for Ontario, Quebec, and Eastern Canada including New Brunswick so it looks like we got ourselves another major storm on the radar!

I will be monitoring it daily and will provide updates as they come in.

Oh geez, on Sunday? My extended family is doing our family Christmas that day. I sure hope we don't get a blizzard or something. I have to travel from downtown Toronto to Oshawa in the afternoon and back in the evening.
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Bamelin wrote: Oh geez, on Sunday? My extended family is doing our family Christmas that day. I sure hope we don't get a blizzard or something. I have to travel from downtown Toronto to Oshawa in the afternoon and back in the evening.
OMG, you won't believe what I am seeing in the forecast models. Ripping apart of your holiday plans will seem like nothing compared to what else will happen with this storm!. If the models don't change from what they are saying about this storm now, we could be into something REALLY REALLY EPIC this weekend. The Euro model has been for a couple days now been consistent and persistent with not just a major storm, but a potentially historic winter weather event, and gradually making it stronger and the forecast position of the storm hasn't really changed. We are talking about a storm that looks to paralyze Toronto and Montreal and make major headlines. That is what will happen if the storm does not change from what the models have been showing. I have been predicting this exact same storm for this weekend since December 11th and talked about a storm around dec 20-22 being of epic proportions. This one I have to watch now because if it comes, o boy! it is gonna be a big event for our city!

I should add the fact that the EURO model has barely changed its stance on this storm is a very strong sign that this storm could actually happen the way I am seeing it. I should also update this post with maps depicting this storm so you can see just how amazing it looks in the EURO forecast model. The GFS is crap right now so I'm not using it. lol I really hope this storm holds together because this will be a wild ride for T-dot!

Wow I just noticed that all the accurate models are already in agreement about this storm and not just about it's existance, but even its exact location! Now I am upping the probability of this storm even more. This is from the GEM model showing where the worst of the snow will be. Bullseye Toronto!!!
[IMG]http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/20131 ... nus_31.png[/IMG]
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Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: Wow this is some winter moment!

The ingredients could come together to make this happen all over again on the next sunday and the right combination of factors may come together to make it even much worse. If the above low develops strong and moves more toward central Ohio, not windsor, it could evolve into something much worse than what you just dug yourself out of! I just saw HPC NOAA updated their data showing we should be on the cold side of the low pressure system and we will be subject to heavy precipitation, which either means major ice storm or major snow storm for Ontario, Quebec, and Eastern Canada including New Brunswick so it looks like we got ourselves another major storm on the radar!

I will be monitoring it daily and will provide updates as they come in.
As long as it doesn't effect Ottawa, I'm fine with that, haha!
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Typhoonz wrote: As long as it doesn't effect Ottawa, I'm fine with that, haha!
I'm checking the EURO model right now to see if Ottawa is in the path of the storm. I think Montreal would get hit worse, same as for Toronto.

Edit, looks like Ottawa would indeed get it too. Maybe not as bad as Toronto, but looks like Ottawa could be in the path of this storm too and get enough snow to make it a prety big snow event for you guys too. It looks like it could evolve into a pretty wide storm. this storm will be fun to watch because if we end up seeing it come into the short range forecast with major snow amounts forecast, it will be an amazing thing to follow. The question now is not whether the storm will happen, but who gets the worst of it. I think we have fairly low chances now of avoiding any effects of it now.
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