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Official Weather Thread: Historical warming and melting taking place in the Arctic

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Ajax
Just drove past Peterborough Utility trucks driving home east of Pickering so all must be fixed now....
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abercombie and finch
Trucks just drove off from my house too. Update: all storm debris has been taken off the wires by the crews using those lifting things on the trucks and that pesky ice storm and its effects are now slipped into the past! I will never have to deal with this again either because they just finished fixing the trees so they can't drop more debris on the power connection if another ice storm does come.
blahhh
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so are we going to expect -15 and below temperatures? are we going to reach -30?
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abercombie and finch
test9251 wrote: so are we going to expect -15 and below temperatures? are we going to reach -30?
We would be in line for minus 30 temperatures if it were not for the geographical features surrounding us, but the fact is that combining our location surrounded by great lakes with open water and the topography around Toronto and the urban heating effect, we won't see minus 30s right in Toronto, at least not now in early winter when the lakes are mostly warm and open. We are likely to edge into the minus 20s, but daytime highs likely won't be any colder than minus 15 or minus 16.
blahhh
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ok, i still have to experience that low temperature in day. hopefully we reach -30 on feb or march. :cheesygri
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test9251 wrote: ok, i still have to experience that low temperature in day. hopefully we reach -30 on feb or march. :cheesygri
March, not a chance! Things already start to warm up starting in late February so there is a very short window of opportunity for Toronto to see extreme cold temperatures. By the time the lakes to finally freeze over a bit, the sun angle is alread heating things back up later in February and the coldest weather no longer is possible. So the best chance is by early February for your extreme cold :)
blahhh
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test9251 wrote: so early Feb then!
Maybe :)
Depends on how well the pattern holds. If the Eastern Pacific Oscillation shifts back to positive or the Arctic oscillation does that, then we may just end up with a return to regular conditions. This pattern we have been in must hold for that cold to happen. A shift out of it could just bring as back to minus 3s and plenty of above freezing conditions. Just have to wait and see what happens with the jet stream.

Oooooooooh! the 18z run of the GFS is now out! Time to check and see what it says :razz:

EDIT: nothing :( what a let down :( This run of the GFS sucks
blahhh
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Weather network calling for 12 cm between Tues - Thurs with subzero temps. Commute is going to be "fun" the 31st and the 2nd especially since nothing will melt.

Thankfully a little more than half of the snow will be on New Years Day when everyone is off work.
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Bamelin wrote: Weather network calling for 12 cm between Tues - Thurs with subzero temps. Commute is going to be "fun" the 31st and the 2nd especially since nothing will melt.

Thankfully a little more than half of the snow will be on New Years Day when everyone is off work.
While we have gotten some active weather, timing has been good every time with it all happening on weekends and now on holidays so things are looking good. GFS isn't showing much snow in this storm system. I wonder if I should check the other models just to make sure.
This is what the GFS shows for Sunday when the worst of the snow should come:
[IMG]http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gf ... precip.gif[/IMG]


Almost nothing there for T-dot, but that can easily change as there is still a whole week left to go.

EDIT: EURO model, which I just checked, has the biggest snowfall for Thursday. I think that is the model TWN is using because the GFS has almost no snow at all for the whole coming week.
blahhh
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GT-EH
Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: I could not find one for DJF months, but either way, the coldest temperatures are still supposed to be in the areas shown. The only difference is supposed to be the temperature gradient or the temperature difference between the north polar regions and here. No way is the most frigid air supposed to be displaced into the US and areas adjacent to Toronto. This is being caused by a very disrupted jet stream. If this pattern worsens, it could become serious because having the coldest temperatures here and not in the arctic right during winter is a very bad sign.

If you look at the map for the current forecast I posted on that last post, you can see that something is definatly wrong with it. Temps could soar to just below freezing in the Arctic where it is supposed to be minus 20s, minus 30s constantly. It is very much getting out of balance. Climate change may be playing a role in this.

Looking again at the forecast temperatures for northern hemisphere, something is certainly wrong with the fact that it is getting so warm in the Arctic in the middle of winter and so cold down here. These temperatures seen in the Arctic are supposed to happen in summer, not winter:
[IMG]http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XHPyEwtEfXU/U ... h2.jpg[IMG]
Did someone just say -15 to -30? Time to grab an Expedition for the time being. I kind of regret selling my Constable Parka last month. :D

[IMG]http://oi42.tinypic.com/i2r8zl.jpg[/IMG]
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Premium wrote: Did someone just say -15 to -30? Time to grab an Expedition for the time being. I kind of regret selling my Constable Parka last month. :D

[IMG]http://oi42.tinypic.com/i2r8zl.jpg[/IMG]
Bad move! lol it's about to get REEEAAL cold! Just make sure you get another one that holds out well in extreme cold cuz you're gonna need it! Not sure what later in Jan early Feb has in store, but i can tell you that the parka will be necessary over then next several weeks.
blahhh
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Premium wrote: Did someone just say -15 to -30? Time to grab an Expedition for the time being. I kind of regret selling my Constable Parka last month. :D

[IMG]http://oi42.tinypic.com/i2r8zl.jpg[/IMG]
The secret is layers all over.
Everyone forgets about the legs and feet. Extra thick socks & a bottom base layer help a lot!
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UrbanPoet wrote: The secret is layers all over.
Everyone forgets about the legs and feet. Extra thick socks & a bottom base layer help a lot!
You are very right. I learned that when I went to High Park, the trick wasn't in spendin 500 bucks on an expensive North Face jacket. Bringing a bunch of layers of sweaters and a decent jacket works wonders. Also, having good kamik winter boots and snowpants also took care of the rest so I was often feeling hot even when it was minus 5!
blahhh
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i just ordered a $190 jacket, hoping it will arrive soon.
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test9251 wrote: i just ordered a $190 jacket, hoping it will arrive soon.
too bad the cold weather starts tomorrow. Tell them to HURRY UP with it! lol
blahhh
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Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: too bad the cold weather starts tomorrow. Tell them to HURRY UP with it! lol
What cold? Are we getting more regular snow or this wet freezing rain stuff?
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Supercooled wrote: What cold? Are we getting more regular snow or this wet freezing rain stuff?
No. Just plain old frigid cold almost every day with a chance for a bit of snow on thursday and Sunday. But no ice storm for sure. Temps will be far too much below freezing for freezing rain. Like minus 6 to minus 8 many days coming up. After a week though, we could be slammed by big rainfalls and a snowstorm in January, but I am still waiting for stronger signals to appear in the forecast models for those weather events.
blahhh

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