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Official Weather Thread: Historical warming and melting taking place in the Arctic

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Aug 20, 2012
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Mehhhh... just looked outside. An inch or so... on to the next one. :razz:
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abercombie and finch
aznnorth wrote: Mehhhh... just looked outside. An inch or so... on to the next one. :razz:
Just so you know, the storm was not even supposed to start till this evening but it started last evening So we are already ahead. It was supposed to be flurries only but instead Toronto already got into the "light snow" or "periods of snow". There was not supposed to be accumulation anywhere in the GTA but it got a head start. This is a sign that we may be more on course for getting the brunt of the storm when does arrive because the areas that got into the storm's small starters were supposed to recieve the main part of the snowstorm.
blahhh
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That was a long night...shower and then off to bed. Hope I wake up to grey skies and more snow!

RFD storm chaser signing off. Lol
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Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: Just so you know, the storm was not even supposed to start till this evening but it started last evening So we are already ahead. It was supposed to be flurries only but instead Toronto already got into the "light snow" or "periods of snow". There was not supposed to be accumulation anywhere in the GTA but it got a head start. This is a sign that we may be more on course for getting the brunt of the storm when does arrive because the areas that got into the storm's small starters were supposed to recieve the main part of the snowstorm.
..or maybe not. That's why they're called 'prediction models' not necessarily 100% accurate. We'll see.
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abercombie and finch
aznnorth wrote: ..or maybe not. That's why they're called 'prediction models' not necessarily 100% accurate. We'll see.
No models are fully accurate so it is true that we sjall see what really happens. But I am just making a point that this is all about a frontal boundary. The front appears to have set up farther south than earlier expected and once it's further south, it isn't retrograding north. The heaviest snow is going to fall along this front and now that the front has managed to get to us early, then we are fair game to receive a good share of what this storm can cough up. ;) but let's just wait and see how this storm behaves.
blahhh
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abercombie and finch
Zephyr22b wrote: That was a long night...shower and then off to bed. Hope I wake up to grey skies and more snow!

RFD storm chaser signing off. Lol
Wow, you have been more busy with the weather than me lol thanks for keeping the place updated when I was not here. I really appreciate the updates to the place while I was off.

Now I take over the day weather shift!! :razz:
blahhh
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The snow last night was caused by the Alberta clipper. The major one from US has not started yet. Says so on weather network.
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LoveRFD wrote: The snow last night was caused by the Alberta clipper. The major one from US has not started yet. Says so on weather network.
Yes. That is basically the point I am trying to bring across. That what we got last night wasn't even the real deal, and that it wasn't even supposed to reach us. The exact detail was that it was caused by the cold front dragging south from the clipper and that cold front connects with the main storm further south which is why there is a continuous area of snowfall from the Alberta clipper to the main storm. Here you can see the maps:

the cold front connecting the clipper up in Canada with the storm at the bottom:
[IMG]http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WtJOgBz3vno/U ... 00/map.jpg[/IMG]

Here you can see how the snow band was continuous running from the clipper in Canada all the way down to the main storm which is still way down in Oklahoma:
[IMG]http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FWAnL8e4LKA/U ... /radar.jpg[/IMG]
blahhh
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abercombie and finch
New development people! It appears that the snow area is now shifting direction and headed straight towards us. This means that the main area of snow that was not supposed to reach us until 4 pm is already on its way here. It is arriving quite possibly 6 to 7 hours earlier than originally thought! So I hope that all those that asked yesterday about plans do return to check these updates as it is now looking like things today will be more on the snowy side and worse than I highlighted yesterday. The storm is no longer moving straight up from the south (which would have brought us rain) And now the centre of the snow zone is on a direct trajectory towards Toronto.

Updates coming throughout the day.
blahhh
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YIKES, I better leave now!
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abercombie and finch
makaveli191 wrote: If your predictions come true they should fire everyone at environment Canada.

http://m.thestar.com/#!/news/fallujah-c ... 34067d6c3a
Lol yes! If my predictions do come true, then that would mean I beat them again and they will have to give up their weather predicting roll to The Weather Thread!
Raggie wrote: YIKES, I better leave now!
Ya I'm sorry that the storm is developing faster. So you should leave. But be careful as the main snowfall area is moving towards us quickly.
blahhh
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therollin wrote: [IMG]http://i.imgur.com/GYDHZYg.jpg[/IMG]

Now it will end earlier perhaps but anyways it is a big storm :)
I have not seen any signs that it would necessarily end earlier. I actually even just checked and the GFS ensembles map showed the storm centre to reach the area of southern Indiana by 1 pm and to be next to us by 1 am and that would carry the snow straight through to 2 or 3 am as earlier expected.

So far, it seems to just be on schedule, as long as the low pressure centre doesn't sneak past central southern Indiana by 1 pm.

And ya, it sure is a nice big storm :)

I hope that that yellow stuff (the heavy precip we see on the map) grows and we get hit directly by it!
blahhh
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Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: I have not seen any signs that it would necessarily end earlier. I actually even just checked and the GFS ensembles map showed the storm centre to reach the area of southern Indiana by 1 pm and to be next to us by 1 am and that would carry the snow straight through to 2 or 3 am as earlier expected.

So far, it seems to just be on schedule, as long as the low pressure centre doesn't sneak past central southern Indiana by 1 pm.

And ya, it sure is a nice big storm :)

I hope that that yellow stuff (the heavy precip we see on the map) grows and we get hit directly by it!
it has grown significantly compared to last night :)
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We shoud start picking up more accumulation in a few hours from now :)
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abercombie and finch
therollin wrote: it has grown significantly compared to last night :)
It sure has. I am also watching some tropical moisture streaming northward from the Gulf stream. If we get enough of that to feed into the stor system, it will become a big precipitation producer and that sure would be big snows!

On another note, I checked the close-up of the RADAR for our region and it looks like the heavy stuff is now setting itself up and streaming towards us and has already reached Kitchener Guelph.
blahhh
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therollin wrote: We shoud start picking up more accumulation in a few hours from now :)
Based on my post immediately above this one, I think it is really close to happening actually because it is already moving right into our region from Michigan. Lookin good! ;)
blahhh
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And to believe TWN was predicting ~5cm only yesterday. we reached at-least half of that overnight!!!!
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therollin wrote: And to belive TWWN was predicting ~5cm only yesterday. we reached at-least half of that overnight!!!!
I was just thinking that myself. TWN is a joke! lol
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