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Official Weather Thread: Historical warming and melting taking place in the Arctic

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abercombie and finch
sandikosh wrote: Here's my list of winter complaints:
1. Not long enough
2. Not cold enough
3. Too little snow
4. CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS ARE SO LAME IN T-DOT
.
blahhh
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I guess this calls for a vacation in Mexico soon. Can't stand this crappy weather.

What's the forecast for Saturday? Env Canada has it rain late in the afternoon tomorrow and finishes late in the evening. Hope that prediction holds true!
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since you ppl started talking about winter :facepalm: .......

[OP]
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petah wrote: I guess this calls for a vacation in Mexico soon. Can't stand this crappy weather.

What's the forecast for Saturday? Env Canada has it rain late in the afternoon tomorrow and finishes late in the evening. Hope that prediction holds true!
there is a low pressure system coming that day and it looks like you yet again get a big round of thunderstorms. So yes, you will most likely get wet in the afternoon and evening. I might have to put the thread back into thunderstorm mode soon ;)

Sorry I took so long to get the update. I had to go to the market first :) I just got back from Kadayawan festival and I swear there are more police, tourist police police and military personnel than attendants to the festival! I have also never seen so many streets closed or reduced traffic for one festival. I sure hope it does not rain today because that will totally ruin the event.
blahhh
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abercombie and finch
test9251 wrote: since you ppl started talking about winter :facepalm: .......

Most talk in this thread is winter related now lol I can't imagine the level of winter talk it will get back to when it is actually winter!
blahhh
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abercombie and finch
And it is time for the update for the long range. It looks like the polar vortex trend will be temporarily cut. While the entire week is forecast to be below normal temps, remaining around the lower 20s (very odd for August), it will return to warm to hot in the east. Accuweather has more ;)

Looking at the latest guidance, it looks like a significant pattern change is in store in about a week across Canada. Between Aug. 21 and 25, there will be a surge of cool air coming down into the Prairies and perhaps a portion of British Columbia. At the same time, very warm and increasingly humid air will spread northward into the Midwest U.S., eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S., which is more typical of what we expect in August.

And the other part:

Summer to Make Last Gasp in Northeast Late-August
While the Northeast is in the midst of another September-like spell, there are signs of a return of summer heat coming in late August.
This week is ending with many residents of the Northeast questioning if the calendar has been prematurely switched to September.
Similar to Thursday, Friday was marking another day of temperatures holding in the 70s along the I-95 corridor with highs in the 60s across the interior of northern New England and toward the eastern Great Lakes.
Highs in the upper 70s and 80s are more common in mid-August.


[IMG]http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... 2_hd20.jpg[/IMG]

However, residents who are thinking of closing down swimming pools or putting away tank tops and air conditioners may want to rethink those actions, according to the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team.
While temperatures will rebound some this weekend across the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic will also turn more humid, AccuWeather.com Long-Range Meteorologist Mark Paquette expects the return of sweltering summer heat and humidity to hold off until Aug. 24-25.
"That hot spell would only last a few days, but I could see the cities in the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C., to New York City to Boston taking a run at the 90-degree mark," stated Paquette.
"While the Northeast's I-95 corridor will become warmer during this spell, the core of the warmth and departures from normal will occur around the Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley," added AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.
High humidity surging in will contribute to even higher AccuWeather.com RealFeel® temperatures.
"However, we are not talking about extreme heat [highs near 100 F] due to the potential for clouds and some rain to be around," added Paquette.


[IMG]http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... 7_hd26.jpg[/IMG]

The fact that the ground is wet from recent and future bouts of rain, including the flood threat that will follow this weekend, will also help keep temperatures in check.
Energy from the sun must first go to evaporating that water instead of fully working to heat the Northeast.
Homeowners and landscapers are likely noticing another effect of the wet weather--more time spent on the lawnmower.
"People across the Northeast who typically only have to mow the lawn once a week are likely finding themselves doing so once every five days," stated AccuWeather.com Dale Mohler who has experience in the landscaping business.
"Most summers, it is dry enough that you can skip a couple of weeks of mowing. While good for landscapers and mowing companies, this year the average homeowner has had to spend a little more and town budgets may be negatively affected," Mohler added.
However, residents are saving on cooling costs during this summer where high heat and humidity has made very few appearances.

The arrival of the heat will mark a change in the weather pattern that will put temperatures on a roller-coaster ride to end the month. While another shot of cool air will ease the hot spell after a few days, Paquette anticipates more warmth as August transitions to September.


GFS seems to show the core of the heat staying south as the jet stream is stronger and shaving off the heat in the northern section of the warm spell (where T-Dot is) so expect interruptions in the heat with several low pressure systems spoiling the weather with rain an thunderstorms.
I can't load the GFS every time I want so it took a long time to get to it. Stupid Davao internet :|
blahhh
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test9251 wrote: since you ppl started talking about winter :facepalm: .......

That was amazing. Thank you.
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So what is the prediction for when we will see the first snowfall this year? October, November or hopefully not until December?

If I were to gauge by the Costco shoppers buying winter coats yesterday I would say it was going to snow tomorrow. A couple days of cooler weather and it seemed like there was a run on winter coats, looked like some kind of Canada Goose style jacket people were buying, it was not a Canada Goose jacket though so don't go running to Costco to look for one. It just was some jacket that had a similar look, quite a few people in the checkout lines around me had them, seemed a bit odd to me to be buying them already.
[IMG]http://i61.tinypic.com/23tk321.jpg[/IMG]
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abercombie and finch
JACKIE26 wrote: So what is the prediction for when we will see the first snowfall this year? October, November or hopefully not until December?

If I were to gauge by the Costco shoppers buying winter coats yesterday I would say it was going to snow tomorrow.
Lol. Well to start off, if I were to gauge by the reaction of the crown yesterday to the sudden change in weather in Mindanao, Philippines I would have thought that the rebels came to rade Davao with machine guns! We were at the Kadayawan festival with loud music when all of a sudden huge raindrops started to plunge at us from the dark skies. The whole crowd started to scream and scramble toward the nearest buildings as if it were a an attack being launched by rebels in a war movie!!!! But all the sudden commotion in the streets of Davao was caused by only the rain!!!!! Then I was pinned against a store by a pile of filipinos trying to stay dry!!! lol The whole way back to the hotel is sheltered spaces beneath buildings so I walked all the way home in super rainy weather ... without even getting wet!

Based on what I am seeing for your cold spells, I think the first snow could be as early as last year coming in early November in t-Dot and mid October in rural areas west and north of T-Dot.

But I think that the cold anomalies will scale back once we get to true winter as el nino is never very supportive of supr cold winters, slipping polar vortexes and stuff further to the north of the city.

And the last girl to add me here, her name is rain. God help me keep the rain away if it is not a pinay :|
blahhh
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I don't know where Accuweather got there prediction from where they said summer was coming back. Temperature projections are now saying it stays below normal. In fact, you might notice it feels downright cool as we head into September because I noticed some patterns that will cause it. I was looking at the GFS and noticed what looked like the advance of fall season on T-Dot getting going late next week with the jet stream from the north already shaving down the warmth of summer back to the south and replacing it with the cooler autumn air from the north, faster than what we are used to. I confirmed this suspicion of fall already by checking NOAAs temperature outlook. It appears that the widespread warm temps in the region are beat down by the advance of the cool stuff starting late next week and the heat (or what is left of it still) is basically eradicated beyond that point and replaced by only modest late summer warmth and an overall feeling of autumn. So I think it is safe to say, fall is coming early! But Accuweather did say something about that earlier with the report on polar vortex coming in September so prepare for more disappointment in the weeks to come.

Just to supplement this, I will include an image from the GFS that suggest lows getting into the single digits starting later next week. This seems totally uncalled for in August, but this is what seems likely now:
[IMG]http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gf ... precip.gif[/IMG]

I say arrival of fall by the way because this is a pattern marked by a sharp drop in temps that appears to want to maintain itself at a time that we reach a point of no return for summer, in other words, after this, it will just be fall anyways so bye bye summer!

although it never came anyways this year :|
:|
blahhh
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Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: Wow your guys long term weather forecast is crud!


Whole week is showers and low to mid 20s :|

Well not good for summer lovers, but I could do with that right now because of course I am sick of non-stop 32 here in Davao.
Forecasts beyond 48 hours are useless and inaccurate.
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abercombie and finch
TSDH wrote: Forecasts beyond 48 hours are useless and inaccurate.
Actually it can vary a lot. I remember that time in winter there was zero model consensus and we had no idea what would go on with the Alberta clipper until it was already happening! then there was the ice storm which I predicted bang on 10 days before the event! starting 10 days before I warned of this epic event coming and it came! Same for this major cold spell I predicted many many days before it came. It seems like big weather events can actually be predicted further in the future. Alberta clippers, fronts and high pressure systems seem so hard to predict. The GFS model that I am using has been pretty good. It often does a good job 5 days out and can predict stuff 7 days ahead at times. Just look at model agreement between several models and when EURO, GFS, NAM etc agree this is when it often goes well 7 days ahead
blahhh
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I took walk yesterday morning and noticed that trees are already shedding their leafs. Some tree leafs are also turning colors. Truly an early fall. Marvelous.
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abercombie and finch
sandikosh wrote: I took walk yesterday morning and noticed that trees are already shedding their leafs. Some tree leafs are also turning colors. Truly an early fall. Marvelous.
I will actually mention what I have noticed. trees seem to show signs of color change as early as the second week of August. For some reason they only continue to have small amount of color change here and there for the whole rest of August and much of September and suddenly start changing rapidly in the last 10 days of Sept. I am not sure what causes them to have that initial period of minimal color change that lasts over a month, but it causes the trees to have spotty color change through most of August. I might have posted some last year.
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Heat warning in effect for tomorrow
3:08 PM EDT Monday 25 August 2014
Heat Warning in effect for:

City of Toronto
A hot and humid airmass is expected to affect portions of southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe on Tuesday. Humidex values near 40 are forecast for Tuesday afternoon. A cold front will sweep across the area Tuesday night bringing a return to near seasonal temperature values for the remainder of the week.
TWN forecasting 30C tomorrow, feeling like 41C!

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