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Official Weather Thread: Historical warming and melting taking place in the Arctic

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Sep 23, 2014
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Any chance that we'll have a similar storm like one that hit Buffalo.....
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abercombie and finch
traderjay wrote: Any chance that we'll have a similar storm like one that hit Buffalo.....
Nope that is a kind of thing that only could possibly happen in any of 3 places, Buffalo, upstate NY east of lake Ontario and places downwind of lake Superior. Toronto does not have the fetch of any such lake so will never see it.
blahhh
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abercombie and finch
And so looks like we are getting a warmup starting on 22, something I have actually been predicting for more than 10 days in advance! And as I had speclated, it looks to only last 3 days. You will be entering another period of bitter cold with night temps likely returning to minus double digits again too. So enjoy your 3 days of mild, cuz we are going right back to this same cold again. Still a chance for mild December, but it has been delayed by this return visit of bitter cold.

EDIT: And I can confirm that my prediction regarding snow in November was a really good one! I claimed that this November would be known for its snow, which is unusual and which people were doubting. It all turned out to be great. A winter wonderland has hit Toronto, even snarling traffic! I am proud to have warned you all that snow was going to be a big feature of this otherwise autumn month ;)
blahhh
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The OP changing the forecast is same as women who can't make up their mind. :facepalm: :razz:

I thought it was going to be mild december. :|
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abercombie and finch
test9251 wrote: The OP changing the forecast is same as women who can't make up their mind. :facepalm: :razz:

I thought it was going to be mild december. :|
I did include that it could be (should have said most likely will be) mild December, but delayed. Will have part of the warm shaved off though :|
Sorry :|

;)
blahhh
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OP I am seeing a warning for freezing rain tomorrow, how likely is that?

Special Weather Statement in Effect for Hamilton from Environment Canada -- Some freezing rain likely Saturday.

A weak disturbance will bring some freezing rain to Southwestern Ontario beginning early Saturday morning in the Windsor area and late Saturday morning for the Kitchener Waterloo region. The duration of the freezing rain should be rather short as southwesterly winds will nudge the mercury towards zero. However some areas could see several hours of freezing rain before temperatures rise above zero changing the freezing rain to rain.

Current indications suggest this disturbance will bring total precipitation amounts of less than 5 mm with much of that falling as rain or drizzle rather than freezing rain.
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Dec 8, 2008
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same bitter cold? I am seeing most of the next 14 days in +1 to +3 range. That is not the same bitter cold we got this past week :|
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abercombie and finch
raps4lyfe wrote: same bitter cold? I am seeing most of the next 14 days in +1 to +3 range. That is not the same bitter cold we got this past week :|
Ooops the models are starting to back off on it. While the same level of bitter cold was supposed to hold off till after we finish this upcoming week, it is now appearing as weaker cold even then. The mild December I got test9251 happy about seems to be winning back.

This is what the GFS looked like yesterday when it forecasted this extreme cold with minus double digits on Dec 3:
[IMG]http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gf ... precip.gif[/IMG]

Now the coldest spell shown in the GFS is for this upcoming week and is much weaker:
[IMG]http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gf ... precip.gif[/IMG]

And test9251 looks like that warm December I made you happy with seems to be dominating in the models again. The GFS temporarily withheld that warmup, but it now looks like it is back to being a warm December. This is looking great! Go figure. :| the warm weather ALWAYS arrives in winter for when I am somewhere like Philippines :| If it is winter and I am there it is always colder.

:|
blahhh
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nice picture we have at the 1st post of this topic.
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abercombie and finch
test9251 wrote: nice picture we have at the 1st post of this topic.
Lol ya. And if anyone wonder what is the "Philippines thread", that is essentially any new thread I make apart from this one. I am obsessed with the Philippines :|

lol

Anyways, when I am back in Toronto, people might recognise who the OP of the weather thread is because of that picture ;) It will be finny if a random stranger on the subway says "Hey! what does the GFS say for Saturday?!?!?!" or "hey you were wrong weather man!, the Alberta clipper dumped a foot of snow and you never warned everyone!!!"
blahhh
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Oct 27, 2009
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Ontario
Good day to clear splashblocks/downspouts of any ice and create paths in snow for the melting snow to drain away from buildings. Ditto any fallen branches-move them into one spot so they don't hinder water drainage.You would not want to see a ring of water around the house/garage...
If your curb/street has catch basins, clear them now before the flood backs up to your property. Simple maintenance but because the basins are "City/Municipal" things, many residents don't care do the right thing. Must love stress over backed up meltwater!

I'd keep an eye on freezing rain especially overnight-it might not create problems for all places in Ontario but usually at least one city/town gets a free ice rink on its roads as a result. Stoney Creek/Niagara Region, it could be you if not KW.
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Ciel is quite correct - especially about the catch basins. The catch basin is not in front of our house but just at the edge of the people next door's house - not on the side closest to us. They absolutely never clear the catch basin. A few years ago their house was spared but when I went out our entire sidewalk, the road in front of our house and part of our front lane was flooded. I started chopping and shovelling to try and steer the water away. Two City workers drove by and stopped to have a look. They told me that I was doing the right thing and that the only way around it was to move part of the ice and snow to the other side of the road. They also told me that they would make a report - and that I shouldn't have to do the work but that it would take a minimum of 12 hours for a crew to come out so better safe than sorry. It took me several hours. There was another woman a few blocks away who they had just seen doing the same thing.

So we clear the catch basin - it is finding it that is sometimes the problem. I have measured off by walking the distance to find it. Of course the people in the house are much younger than we are. The next catch basin is at the far side of the house to the other side of us - same story - they don't clear theirs either.
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Looks like spring has sprung. Time to start throwing the ball around.
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abercombie and finch
I thought the Santa Claus parade did have snow. Did it not?
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